Although Indonesia's B15 biodiesel program, which refers to the government's program to blend 85 percent of diesel with a mandatory 15 percent of fatty acid methyl ester (derived from palm oil), is no success yet, the government is expected to introduce the B20 biodiesel program (raising the mandatory content of fatty methyl ester in biofuel to 20 percent) in early 2016. To support the B20 program, eleven companies are ready to supply biodiesel to state-owned energy company Pertamina and publicly-listed petroleum and basic chemicals distributor AKR Corporindo between November 2015 and April 2016.

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Third-quarter corporate earnings of Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates, cause concern that economic growth of Indonesia has continued to slow in Q3-2015. Corporate earnings of Astra International are a solid indicator of the country's total growth as the company is engaged in basically all key sectors of the economy. Astra reported a 17.2 percent decline (year-on-year) in net profit to IDR 12 trillion (approx. USD $888 million). Sales fell 8 percent (y/y) to IDR 138 trillion.

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Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is estimated to rise to 33 million tons in 2016, roughly 500,000 tons lower than the initial forecast as the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to impact on agricultural output by causing an extended dry season in Southeast Asia (that will perhaps last beyond December). This year, Indonesia, the global leading CPO producer and exporter, is expected to produce 31.5 million tons. Reduced output in Indonesia may support palm oil prices.

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The Indonesian government will (temporarily) stop using sustainability standards designed by the European Union regarding crude palm oil (CPO). Indonesian Minister of Maritime Affairs Rizal Ramli said the current strict standards of the European Union hurt the domestic palm oil industry, especially smallholders. Moreover, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's two largest CPO producers and exporters, are to set up a new intergovernmental palm oil council that will design new rules and standards regarding sustainable palm oil production.

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Again schools were ordered to shut (for at least two days) in Malaysia in order to protect children from inhaling smog as the air quality remains at very unhealthy levels (nearly hazardous in some regions). The air pollutant index still shows readings of between 201 to 300 in six districts around Malaysia's capital city of Kuala Lumpur. The haze, which - reportedly - may become the worst haze ever, is caused by companies' and people's illegal slash-and-burn practices to clear land for planting on parts of the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan. The situation is exacerbated by the (El Nino-related) prolonged dry season.

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Apart from the Indonesian rupiah which has hit its weakest level since the Asian Financial Crisis 17 years ago, the ongoing El Nino (the weather phenomenon that brings drought to Southeast Asia) may be the strongest since 1997-1998. This means that output of agricultural commodities is to decline (but which should have a positive impact on prices). Coffee production in Indonesia is estimated to fall by seven percent to 581,000 metric tons in 2016 from an estimated 625,000 tons this year.

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Pajak ekspor Indonesia untuk pengapalan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) akan tetap pada 0% di Oktober 2015 karena harga referensi CPO Pemerintah jatuh 13% (month-on-month) menjadi 529,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton. Ketika harga referensi CPO ini berada di bawah batasan 750 dollar AS per ton, maka Pemerintah menghapuskan pajak ekspor dalam rangka untuk membuat pembelian minyak sawit Indonesia menjadi lebih menarik. Kendati begitu, para eksportir masih tetap dikenai beacukai ekspor minyak sawit yang baru-baru ini diberlakukan. Ketika pajak ekspor dipotong menjadi 0%, para eksportir diharuskan untuk membayar beacukai senilai 50 dollar AS per ton untuk pengapalan CPO dan 30 dollar AS per ton untuk pengapalan produk-produk minyak sawit olahan (sebagian dari pendapatan ini disalurkan kepada program subsidi biodiesel Indonesia).

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There is limited to no room for palm oil prices to rise in the remainder of 2015 as crude palm oil (CPO) reserves have climbed while exports are down. CPO production in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of this commodity, may have hit the one-year high of 3.20 million tons in August (from 2.86 million tons one month earlier) as trees reached their peak production period. Meanwhile, India introduced higher taxes for overseas purchases of palm oil in order to protect domestic growers.

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The haze, caused by dozens of forest fires on Sumatra and Kalimantan, and which have spread to Singapore and Malaysia, is expected to plague the three countries in the next couple of days. Indonesian authorities, which are currently investigating forest fires in Central Kalimantan, South Sumatra, Riau, West Kalimantan and Jambi, mentioned that there are 107 people who have been named suspects, involved in 68 acts of slash-and-burn practices (according to Indonesian media).

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On 9 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as an analysis of the recent performance of the rupiah, an analysis of Q2-2015 GDP growth, updates on inflation as well as manufacturing, and unemployment in Indonesia.

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Palm oil ranks among the most important agricultural commodities of Indonesia as this country is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil. This implies that Indonesia generates important foreign exchange earnings from palm oil exports and is a source of income for millions of workers on the plantations.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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Indonesia is the world’s biggest palm oil grower as well as the world’s biggest exporter of crude palm oil (CPO). Traditionally, palm oil exports are ranked among the top three export products of Indonesia (along with coal and natural gas). As such, palm oil is of crucial importance for the Indonesian economy.

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It have not been great times for palm oil farmers and traders. Malaysia’s benchmark palm oil price is currently hovering near a three-year low of 1,949 ringgit (approx. USD $464.8) per ton amid high inventories, rising production and sluggish global demand.

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Several negative sentiments are putting pressure on the crude palm oil (CPO) price in the first week of March 2018. These sentiments are expected to continue pushing downward pressure on the CPO price in the remainder of this week. On Monday (05/03) the CPO price on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (May 2018 shipments) fell 0.28 percent to 2,467 ringgit per metric ton. Compared to one week earlier, the price has now declined 2.91 percent.

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In the battle between Indonesia and the European Union (EU) regarding the latter's anti-dumping duties on Indonesian biodiesel exports, Indonesia won six out of seven legal challenges. Indonesia had challenged the EU's duties, set in 2013, on biodiesel imports from Indonesia and Argentina. The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled, largely, in favor of Indonesia.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to strengthen in the first quarter of 2018 due to the impact of the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand in the traditional big CPO importing countries. This is good news for stakeholders in the palm oil industry as the price has been sliding around 16 percent so far this year (toward the 2,700 Malaysian ringgit per ton level).

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Foreign exchange earnings are important assets for a national economy. Therefore, many nations have recently been taking a much more protectionist approach vis-à-vis trade in an effort to strengthen their trade positions, generate trade surpluses, hence see the inflow of more foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange assets support a stable local currency as well as economy.

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