In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah improved on the last trading day of the week supported by moderately rising indices on Wall Street on Thursday (07/05), which was in stark contrast to heavy selling that occurred one day earlier after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s statement that US stock prices may be overvalued. Meanwhile, weak trade data from China could a reason for policymakers to provide more stimulus. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index climbed 0.62 percent to 5,182.21 points on Friday (08/05).

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Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y). Although it had been expected that Indonesia’s GDP growth figure would slip below the five percent mark, the slowdown was worse than initially expected. Suryamin, Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS), stated earlier today (05/05) that the country’s economic growth slowed to a five-year low on the back of weak exports (the result of reduced economic growth in export markets) and lower crude oil prices.

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Over the past week the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.60 percent to IDR 12,941 per US dollar (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate). At the start of the week the rupiah experienced severe pressure as market participants were concerned about Indonesia’s slowing economic growth. However, in the second half of the week, Indonesia’s currency somewhat improved as the US dollar was negatively affected by weak US economic data. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah finished at IDR 12,922 per US dollar on Friday (24/04).

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In the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Monday (13/04), the Washington-based institution revised down its economic growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2015, down from 5.6 percent in its October 2014 Update. Main reasons for this downgrade is that Indonesia’s export performance remains weak amid the sluggish global economy, including weak demand from China (Indonesia’s largest trading partner). Meanwhile, Indonesia’s domestic consumption is curtailed by high interest rates.

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In the latest edition of the East Asia Pacific Economic Update, released on Monday (13 April 2015), the World Bank revised down its economic growth forecast for developing East Asia & China to 6.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 and 2016 from its previous assumption of 6.9 percent growth (y/y) in 2015 and 6.8 percent (y/y) in 2016. The main reason for this downward revision is the global uncertain economic context, which includes the impact of looming higher US interest rates and the appreciating US dollar.

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Investors in Asian markets should not be overly concerned about slowing economic growth in China or bullish US dollar momentum ahead of higher US interest rates as economic growth rates in this region are still significantly higher than in other parts of the world. Thanks to a burgeoning middle class segment (which constitutes a strong consumer force), Asia has great prospects for the long-term. This is the message conveyed in the words of Christophe Palumbo, Senior Business Development Manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

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Indonesian stocks continued to climb strongly after the market opened on Tuesday (31/03). The country’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged nearly one percent. Several external and internal factors are at play here. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve indicated over the past week that it may not raise its key interest rate too soon, leading to investors’ appetite for emerging market assets. Secondly, Chinese policymakers provided room for increased infrastructure spending and monetary stimulus.

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It is estimated that Indonesia’s export of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives have fallen in February 2015 due to sluggish demand from India and China, the world’s two largest palm oil importers, while the globe’s soybean output increased (soybean oil is a close substitute to palm oil for food and biodiesel uses). Based on a median of six palm oil growers, analysts and official estimates, Indonesian shipments of palm oil (including palm kernel) fell six percent month-to-month (m/m) to 1.7 million metric tons in February.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have generally weakened in 2014, evidencing that the coal mining industry, which was a lucrative business in the 2000s during the commodities boom (until 2011), is still experiencing a slowdown amid global economic trouble. The sluggish global economy has resulted in weak demand for commodities such as coal and crude palm oil (two important foreign exchange earners of Indonesia). Particularly slowing economic growth in China is a concern.

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By the end of Friday's trading day (28/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 11,361 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. At the end of March 2014, the rupiah is still the best-performing Asian currency this year, outperforming 24 emerging-market currencies that are tracked by Bloomberg. Since 31 December 2013, the rupiah appreciated nearly seven percent against the US dollar as an easing current account deficit and slowing inflation triggered capital inflows into Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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During most of the day, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) moved in the green zone, seemingly unaffected by falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (26/03). However, just before the trading day closed  market participants engaged in profit taking causing the 0.11 percent decline of the IHSG to 4,723.06 points. It is difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for this occurrence. Perhaps because Asian indices turned mixed after China's benchmark index fell as China's latest industrial profit growth data were weak.

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On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.

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Despite technical indicators suggesting further upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), a positive performance of the index was blocked by external factors. Several Asian stock indices were down responding to Markit's lower US manufacturing PMI (slipping to 55.5 from 57.1 in February 2014). Similarly, China and the Eurozone's manufacturing data showed slowing growth. Continued appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate managed to limit the decline of the IHSG.

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At the start of the new week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was able to continue to climb, supported by positive Asian indices. Today, investors took advantage of discounted stocks in Asia as markets had fallen after the Federal Reserve's announcement last week that the quantitative easing program would be wound down further as well as a possible US interest rate hike in 2015 and 2016. However, the IHSG was also vulnerable to profit taking. Therefore, today's gain was limited.

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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Although we advise investors to remain careful as any negative sentiment will be used as a valid reason for profit taking, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was up from the start of the trading day on Tuesday (11/03). The start of dividend payouts helped to offset concerns about possible interest rate hikes (in emerging markets) as well as the impact of weak indices on Wall Street and Europe on Monday (10/03). Asian stock indices, however, were positive on Tuesday, thus providing support for the IHSG.

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Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa said that the rupiah exchange rate's new equilibrium is at IDR 11,000 per US dollar. As the economic fundamentals of Indonesia's economy have improved in recent months - evidenced by the easing current account deficit and inflation - the rupiah has shown a strong performance, appreciating around six percent against the US dollar in 2014 (year to date). In fact, Rajasa warned that the rupiah should not strengthen too much as this impacts negatively on Indonesia's trade balance.

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Although immediately plunging 0.33 percent to IDR 11,478 per US dollar after its opening on Monday (10/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.57 percent to IDR 11,375 per US dollar by 14:00 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah's performance today is in sharp contrast with other Asian currencies. As US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected and Chinese exports fell sharply (18.1 percent year-on-year) in February 2014, the US dollar appreciated against most Asian currencies.

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Rising indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (04/03) impacted positively on Asian indices the following day, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). As the political tensions in Ukraine have somewhat eased since Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not seeking to escalate the conflict, investors were again eager to invest in emerging market stocks; foreign investors were net buyers. Today's performance of the IHSG left a gap at 4,602-4,621 points.

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