Indonesia experienced deflation, with consumer prices falling by 0.05 percent (month-on-month), in September 2015 on the back of lower food and transportation prices. Examples of lower food prices include chicken meat, eggs, chili peppers, onions and cooking oil. Regarding lower transportation costs it was particularly lower air transport tariffs that contributed to deflation. On an annual basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 6.83 percent in September, down from 7.18 (y/y) in the preceding month, and below analysts' estimates at 7.0 (y/y).

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After the government of Indonesia unveiled the second installment of its economic policy package on Tuesday (29/09), the central bank (Bank Indonesia) followed suit by releasing a rupiah exchange rate stabilization package on Wednesday (30/09). Bank Indonesia’s package has three main pillars: (1) safeguarding rupiah rate stability, (2) strengthening rupiah liquidity management, and (3) strengthening foreign exchange supply and demand management.

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Most Asian stock markets were stronger on Wednesday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 Index which rose 2.70 percent on expectation of further government stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 1.09 percent to 4,223.91 points supported by the region's rising stock indices as well as on the back of the second installment of Indonesia's economic policy package. Meanwhile, the rupiah appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 14,653 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Indonesian stocks experienced a remarkable roller coaster ride on Tuesday (29/09). After opening the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell more than two percent to a near three-year low. However, the index managed to finish the trading day at 4,178.41 points, a 1.41 percent rise. Meanwhile, Indonesia's rupiah managed to curb losses. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah passed beyond the IDR 14,800 per US dollar level several times but at the end of the day it had only weakened 0.11 percent to IDR 14,691 per US dollar.

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In an effort to support the ailing Indonesian rupiah, state-owned energy company Pertamina will cut its foreign exchange purchases on the spot market by around 50 percent. Pertamina together with state utility firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) account for about half of Indonesia's daily foreign exchange (forex) transactions as these companies require US dollars for fuel purchases and overseas debt settlements.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down over 2 percent, touching a three-year low, while the rupiah weakened beyond the IDR 14,800 per US dollar level (Bloomberg Dollar Index) around 09:00 am local Jakarta time on Tuesday (29/09) as the global selloff persists. Investors are concerned about the economic conditions of China and the world, low commodity prices, while anticipating a Fed Fund Rate hike.

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Stock indices in Asia were mixed on the first trading day of the week. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2.11 percent to 4,120.50 points (a two-year low), while the rupiah (remarkably) appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 14,674 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, European markets were down after opening on Monday (28/09). What influenced these markets today?

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Indonesia plans to cut taxes for local exporters in a bid to boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while supporting the rupiah, as part of its second policy package. Indonesia’s rupiah has depreciated 18.1 percent since the start of 2015 due to looming higher US interest rates, low commodity prices, and China’s yuan devaluation. The government now plans to cut income tax on interest that exporters earn when depositing their export proceeds in local banks. Currently, income tax on bank interest (from deposit accounts) stands at 20 percent.

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After opening on Monday (28/09) Indonesian stocks rapidly fell amid mixed Asian markets. The main factor that causes several Asian markets to fall is declining Chinese industrial profits (triggering concern about a deepening slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy). China’s industrial profits fell 8.8 percent in August, down from July’s 2.9 percent drop. By 09:50 am local Jakarta time, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.41 percent to 4,150.27 points.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.

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The Indonesian rupiah touched a 17-year low as the currency continued to depreciate amid persistent bullish US dollar momentum. The rupiah weakened to IDR 13,539 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Friday (31/07). The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday (30/07) that US gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 2.3 percent (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2015, giving rise to heightened expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate soon.

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Companies active in the pharmaceutical industry of Indonesia need to find strategies to overcome sharp rupiah depreciation. Indonesia’s pharmaceutical industry is still - to a large extent - dependent on the import of raw materials, hence a weakening rupiah raises the costs of imports thus eroding profit margins. Since May 2013, when the US Federal Reserve started to hint at monetary tightening, the US dollar has experienced bullish momentum. Between the May 2013 and July 2015, the rupiah depreciated around 37 percent against the US dollar.

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For most of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has met selling pressure against the US Dollar. Year-to-date price activity in the USD/IDR shows a rise from below IDR 12,250 to new highs above IDR 13,330 per US dollar. For Indonesian export companies, this is great news as it means that their products will be cheaper for foreign consumers to buy. For the domestic economy, this creates a different set of implications as it also makes it less likely that foreign investors will be looking to buy into Indonesian assets.

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Since late 2011 Indonesia has been plagued by a structural current account deficit (CAD) that has worried both policymakers and (foreign) investors. Despite Indonesian authorities having implemented policy reforms and economic adjustments in recent years, the country’s CAD remains little-changed in 2015. The World Bank and Bank Indonesia both expect the CAD to persist at slightly below 3 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, alarmingly close to the boundary that separates a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.

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When we look at the long-term activity in the Indonesian rupiah, we have seen a surprising level of strength when viewing the activity seen in recent months. This has been surprising for a few different reasons, as this is not something that can be said for markets in emerging Asia as a whole. This essentially suggests that economic activity in the region has been somewhat disjointed and that trends visible in one country cannot necessarily be expected in another. But when we look at chart activity in the rupiah itself, we can see that the broader trends have started to change over the last two months.

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Both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to slide on Thursday (04/06) and seem to be caught in a vicious downward spiral brought about by both domestic and international factors. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.68 percent to close at a five-week low of 5,095.82 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,281 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), a level last seen in the late 1990s when the country was plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis.

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On the first trading day of the new week, both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah moved more-or-less sideways. Generally, indices in Southeast Asia were mixed as positive external sentiments were offset by local negative sentiments. In the case of Indonesia, negative local sentiments stemmed from the higher-than-estimated inflation figure in May and continued contraction of the manufacturing industry. Positive market sentiments stemmed from the USA where GDP growth was revised to minus 0.7 percent in Q1-2015.

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Most stock markets and currencies in Southeast Asia weakened on Friday (29/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and the rupiah. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.40 percent to 5,216.38 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 13,224 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Over the past week, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened primarily due to the Greek debt crisis, looming higher US interest rates and the lack of positive domestic factors.

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In line with other Asian indices, Indonesian stocks rose on Tuesday (26/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.62 percent to 5,320.90 points. Positive sentiments did not originate from the USA as US stock markets were closed for a holiday yesterday but primarily stemmed from China where the economic planning agency announced to implement several new policies in a bid to boost the sluggish economy. The rupiah, however, depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 13,220 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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