By the end of September 2017, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD $129.4 billion, slightly up from USD $128.8 billion in the preceding month, hence hitting a new all-time record. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said this increase was primarily attributed to foreign exchange receipts from tax revenues, government oil & gas export proceeds, the withdrawal of government foreign loans as well as the auction of Bank Indonesia foreign exchange bills.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to accelerate modestly in the remainder of the year after having recorded slightly disappointing 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth in both the first and second quarter of 2017.

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Indonesia's retail sales declined in July 2017 in line with the return to normal consumption patterns after the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations ended. This is reflected in Bank Indonesia's retail sales index that showed a 3.3 percent decline year-on-year (y/y), after a 6.3 percent (y/y) increase in the preceding month. The decline in Indonesia's retail sales occurred in both food and non-food groups.

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Per 31 October 2017 payments on Indonesia's toll roads will be done entirely non-cash, using electronic money. This policy is part of authorities' ambition to create a cashless society and is expected to speed up the payment process at the toll roads, hence easing severe traffic congestion.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said the nation's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD $128.8 billion at the end of August 2017, higher than the USD $127.8 billion one month earlier. This growth was primarily attributed to foreign exchange receipts from tax revenues and government oil & gas export proceeds, as well as auctions of Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange bills.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is convinced that geopolitical troubles on the Korean peninsula will not impact negatively on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo said he sees little impact (yet) but emphasized that the lender of last resort will continue to carefully monitor persistent tensions that have heightened after North Korea's latest nuclear test - its biggest-ever - on Sunday (03/09).

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It was not a total surprise. In fact, signs were on the wall. On Tuesday (22/08) the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark BI 7-day (Reverse) Repo Rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent at the August 2017 policy meeting. It was the first time since October 2016 that Bank Indonesia altered its key rate. Meanwhile, the deposit facility and lending facility rates were also cut by 25 basis points, to 3.75 percent and 5.25 percent, respectively.

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Usually Bank Indonesia ends its two-day Board of Governor's meeting on a Thursday. This August, however, the monthly meeting is planned to end today (Tuesday 22 August 2017). This meeting - expected to be completed in the late afternoon or early evening - is closely watched because some believe Indonesia's central bank is prepared to cut its benchmark interest rate.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is optimistic that credit growth will accelerate in Indonesia in 2018. The lender of last resort set its credit growth forecast for 2018 at the range of 12-14 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from its 10-12 percent (y/y) growth forecast for 2017, on the back of accelerating economic growth. The Indonesian government proposes economic growth at 5.4 percent (y/y) in 2018 (possibly a too ambitious target).

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Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) is convinced that the nation's current account deficit (CAD) will not exceed 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017. In the second quarter of 2017 the CAD widened to 1.96 percent of GDP (or USD $5 billion), from 0.98 percent of GDP in the preceding quarter (or USD $2.4 billion).

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At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.

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In line with the performance of other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate appreciated on Monday (12/01) as the fall in US wages (released late last week) caused speculation that the Federal Reserve will - for now - delay its plan to start raising US borrowing costs. Despite solid growing US non-farm payrolls in December 2014, US wages (average hourly earnings) fell the most in eight years. Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 12,599 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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The central bank of Indonesia recently issued new regulations (Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 16/21/PBI/2014 and External Circular No. 16/24/DKEM) that aim to safeguard Indonesia’s financial fundamentals. These new regulations, which are an improvement of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 16/20/PBI/2014 dated Oct. 28 2014, force Indonesian non-bank corporations to apply prudent fiscal management regarding foreign-denominated debt. Bank Indonesia felt these rules are needed as privately-held foreign debt rises continuously.

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The latest survey of Indonesia’s central bank indicates that consumer confidence fell in December 2014. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.6 points to 116.5 in the last month of 2014 (a score above 100 signals optimism among consumers) due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented in November 2014. This move triggered higher prices of products and services. The central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on interviews with 4,600 households in 18 Indonesian cities.

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Indonesia’s inflation pace accelerated in December 2014, exceeding estimations of analysts and Indonesia’s central bank. December inflation, 2.46 percent (m/m) or 8.36 percent (y/y), accelerated due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices (introduced in November) and volatile food prices (fluctuating rice and chili prices at the year-end). Other factors that contributed to high inflation in 2014 were higher electricity tariffs for households and industries, the higher price of 12 kg LPG, and an airfare adjustment.

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Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) signed an agreement (the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework, abbreviated ABIF) with Malaysia’s central bank to support banking integration in the ASEAN region. The website of Bank Indonesia states that ABIF “provides an operating framework for ASEAN member states to implement principles and the integration process in the banking sector to support the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) [which is to be implemented later this year]”.

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A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by David Cowen (advisor at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department), visited several Indonesian cities in the first three weeks of December 2014 to conduct research on the economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. This research included the study of recent macroeconomic developments as well as the formulation of prognosis scenarios for the short and middle term. The IMF team held discussions with the government, Bank Indonesia, private entrepreneurs and scholars.

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External debt of Indonesia grew at a pace of 10.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in October 2014, slightly slower than the 11.2 percentage point (y/y) growth pace in the previous month, according to a statement of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia). Total outstanding external debt of Indonesia reached USD $294.5 billion in October (from USD $292.3 billion in the previous month). While growth of public sector external debt slowed in October, private sector external debt accelerated.

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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