Indonesian assets are leading declines in Asia on Wednesday's trading day (05/10) as (global) markets are digesting the latest reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) may withdraw its bond buying program, while statements from US Federal Reserve officials strengthened the case for a Fed Funds Rate hike before the year-end. Lastly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for US economic growth in 2016 to 1.6 percent (y/y) from its earlier estimate of 2.2 percent (y/y).

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After the US Federal Reserve decided to leave its interest rates unchanged at the September policy meeting on Wednesday (21/09) Asian stocks surged while emerging market currencies appreciated against the US dollar. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had surged 1 percent by 11:30 am local Jakarta time, while the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 13,087 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). A delay in US monetary tightening makes the higher yielding (but riskier) emerging markets assets an attractive alternative.

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In line with the performance of US stocks overnight, Asian stocks plunged to a six-week low on Wednesday morning (14/09), while Asian currencies are under similar pressure. Investors have become increasingly concerned about weaker-than-estimated growth, while confidence in central banks' efforts to boost economies fades. Meanwhile, there remains a high degree of uncertainty about a looming interest rate hike in the United States. In Asia losses were extended as higher bond yields and excessive volatility encourage investors to unwind positions.

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Those who invest in Indonesian stocks and the rupiah may prefer to remain in 'wait and see'-mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve's September two-day policy meeting (20-21 September). In the new trading week markets are again plagued by a very high degree of volatility due to changing perceptions regarding the Fed Funds Rate hike. On Monday (12/09), when Indonesian markets were closed for a public holiday, Asia experienced a major selloff, following Wall Street last Friday when US stocks plunged on fears of a looming (sooner-than-later) Fed rate hike.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) expects to see 15 more companies conducting an initial public offering (IPO) on the local bourse in the remainder of the year, supported by the improving macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia (including a 5.18 percent y/y GDP growth pace in Q2-2016, 2.78 percent y/y inflation in August, and the central bank's lower interest rates) as well as the tax amnesty program (that should bring home trillions of rupiah, part of which finds its way into the local stock market). However, looming tighter monetary policy in the USA remains a challenge.

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As expected, emerging markets in Asia, including Indonesia, were negatively affected by the speech of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole last week. Her speech - touching the topics of solid new jobs creation - provided ammunition for analysts and investors to raise speculation about a near-term US Fed Funds Rate hike. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.25 percent to 5,370.76 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.42 percent to IDR 13,267 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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After the speech of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole (Wyoming) on Friday (26/08), speculation about a looming Fed Funds Rate hike has risen. In her speech Yellen said the case for higher US interest rates has strengthened in recent months due to the nation's economic growth and stronger jobs market. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said a US interest rate hike could come as early as September 2016.

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Most Asian stocks slid on Monday (22/08) as there occurred renewed speculation about a Fed Funds Rate hike in September 2016 after hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, while crude oil prices fell nearly 2 percent in Asian trade after Iraq indicated that it seeks to boost exports, hence effectively snapping a seven-day winning streak. However, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was up 0.21 percent to 5,427.17 points on the first trading day of the new week.

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After six years of steady decline, the Indonesian rupiah is likely to have appreciated against the US dollar at the end of 2016. So far this year, the currency of Indonesia has appreciated 4.8 percent to IDR 13,126 against the greenback (Bloomberg Dollar Index) supported by capital inflows, particularly into government bonds and stocks as well as the delay in further monetary tightening in the USA. Although the rupiah should depreciate a bit as we go towards the end of the year, it is set to finish the year at a stronger level than it started.

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Amid mixed Asian stock markets, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged a whopping 1.67 percent on Thursday (18/08), one day after Indonesian markets were closed for Independence Day celebrations. Investors' risk appetite improved markedly after the Federal Reserves' July minutes signaled that it will still take a while before the US central bank is ready to implement another interest rate hike. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government proposed a realistic 2017 State Budget to the nation's House of Representatives.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's economic growth in 2015 is targeted in the range of 5.5 to 6.3 percent. Amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible interest rate hikes in the world's largest economy, chances of capital outflows from emerging markets (including Indonesia) are becoming larger. Basri said that these global conditions impact on GDP growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, 2015 is a transition year, reflected by tighter economic projections and state spending.

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At the end of Friday’s trading day (02/05), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.32 percent to IDR 11,525 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The rupiah performed better than most of its regional emerging peers as inflation and trade data, which were released today by Statistics Indonesia, provided positive market sentiments. Indonesian inflation eased to 7.25 percent (year-on-year) in April 2014, from 7.32 percent a month earlier. Meanwhile, the country posted a trade surplus of USD $673 million in March 2014.

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Standard Chartered Bank Economist Eric Sugandi expects that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will have raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 50 basis points (bps) to 8.00 percent by the end of 2014. Sugandi also said that it is highly unlikely that Bank Indonesia will lower its BI rate in the next two years amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, the Indonesian government may still decide to reduce fuel subsidies further (thus triggering inflationary pressures).

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.

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According to the latest East Asia Pacific Economic Update - the World Bank’s comprehensive review of the region’s economies which was released today (07/04) - developing countries in the East Asia Pacific region will see stable economic growth this year, bolstered by a recovery in high-income economies and the market’s modest response so far to the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing. Developing East Asia will grow by 7.1 percent this year, largely unchanged from 2013.

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Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be maintained at 7.50 percent at Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting on Tuesday 8 April 2014. Despite Indonesia's moderating inflation rate (7.32 percent year on year in March 2014) and the February 2014 trade surplus of USD $785 million, the BI rate may be left unchanged in order to support the further easing of Indonesia's current account deficit and to offset the impact of the possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016.

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At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.

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By the end of Friday's trading day (28/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.75 percent to IDR 11,361 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. At the end of March 2014, the rupiah is still the best-performing Asian currency this year, outperforming 24 emerging-market currencies that are tracked by Bloomberg. Since 31 December 2013, the rupiah appreciated nearly seven percent against the US dollar as an easing current account deficit and slowing inflation triggered capital inflows into Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).

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Today (18/03), the World Bank released the March 2014 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled Investment in Flux. The report discusses key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, it provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, as well as analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. Click here for further information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia.

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