The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released several preliminary statements related to the latest visit of a IMF team, led by Luis E. Breuer, to Indonesia (the visit took place between 1 - 14 November 2017). Overall, the team sees the continuation of good economic growth in Indonesia, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies, improved global GDP growth and rising commodity prices, as well as sustained efforts to strengthen the nation's competitiveness.

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Although, overall, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2017 was slightly disappointing at a pace of 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y), investment, export and government consumption all strengthened. Hence, the main reason why Indonesia's Q3-2017 GDP growth was below expectations is sliding growth of household consumption.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today (06/11) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2017. Like in the preceding two quarters, this latest figure is (slightly) below analysts' estimates. On average, analysts had expected growth in the range of 5.10 - 5.20 percent (y/y) in Q3-2017.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani is optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth in 2018 can exceed the government target of 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) as set in the 2018 State Budget, which was approved by Indonesian parliament last week. Her optimism is based on an expected pickup in investment and exports next year.

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Lana Soelistianingsih, economist at Samuel Aset Manajemen, said it will be very difficult for Indonesian authorities to achieve its 11.5 percent tax-to-GDP ratio target in 2017 despite the positive impact of the government's recently completed tax amnesty program.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to accelerate modestly in the remainder of the year after having recorded slightly disappointing 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth in both the first and second quarter of 2017.

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Assurance, tax and consulting services company PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) mentioned Indonesia among the 21 nations that have the fastest-growing  economies and will be among the world's biggest economies by 2030. On this list Indonesia is ranked fifth with an expected gross domestic product (GDP) of USD $5.42 trillion in 2030.

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In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati informed that it will be tough to achieve the 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) economic growth target as set in the government's Revised 2017 State Budget. In the first two quarters of the year Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) only expanded 5.01 percent (y/y) in each quarter.

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After macroeconomic growth was rather disappointing at 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2017, the Indonesian government will soon release a new economic policy package, specifically aimed at boosting investment in Indonesia. However, Indonesia's business world urge the government to first evaluate the effectiveness of preceding policy packages before implementing a new deregulation package. Moreover, some say it would be better to focus on improving confidence among consumers.

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On Monday morning (07/08) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) released the official gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure for the second quarter of 2017. The result was slightly below estimates. BPS said the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q2-2017, while the average analyst forecast was 5.08 percent (y/y).

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Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).

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While Indonesia is currently in the middle of expanding its 4G network, the nation remains placed among the countries that have the poorest Internet penetration rate in the world. A recent World Bank report, titled 'World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends', zooms in on the economic and social impact that occurs when a relative large part of the population cannot be connected to the Internet or when the government fails to keep pace with the growth of technology.

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Consumer goods producer Unilever Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading consumer goods firms, is expected to show better corporate earnings in 2016 compared to the preceding years on improving purchasing power of Indonesia's population. The company's net profit is estimated to grow by 15 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the coming two years, while its EBIT margin is expected to remain above 23 percent as higher costs of raw materials are compensated by higher selling prices.

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Both car sales and motorcycle sales declined in 2015 in Indonesia. Primary reason for this decline was people's weaker purchasing power amid the slowing economy and persistently low commodity prices. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have fallen to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009. Meanwhile, amid the sluggish global economy (especially China's slowdown) and falling oil prices, Indonesia gains relatively little from its commodity exports.

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The performance of Astra International, one of Indonesia's leading diversified conglomerates (but particularly known for being the dominant force in the country's automotive industry), is expected to improve next year on the arrival of new car models, estimated accelerated economic growth and its rivals' stagnating production capacity expansion. As such, Astra International should be able to increase its market share and feel less need to offer its cars to customers at discounted rates.

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Ace Hardware Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading retail companies that is engaged in the markets of home improvement and lifestyle products, is expected to show modest (single-digit) growth in 2016. Same store sales growth is estimated to grow in the range of 8-10 percent year-on-year (y/y). This modest performance is caused by weak purchasing power in Indonesia amid sluggish economic growth and due to the fragile rupiah (against the US dollar).

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Today, the World Bank released the latest edition of its flagship publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled "Reforming amid Uncertainty". In this edition the Washington-based institution states that global conditions remain unfavorable despite financial markets having stabilized since October. Meanwhile, the country was negatively affected by severe man-made forest fires and toxic haze which cost Indonesia an estimated IDR 221 trillion (USD $16 billion or 1.9 percent of the country's gross domestic product) in five months.

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An Indonesian analyst says the Indonesian government needs to increase efforts to boost people's purchasing power in order to achieve the government's economic growth target of 5.3 percent in 2016. Household consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the nation's total gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As such, if purchasing power continues to weaken, then the economic slowdown returns. The analyst suggests the government should consider to cut personal and corporate income taxes, delay the electricity tariff hike for 900 VA households, and lower fuel prices.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) relatively high in order to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability in 2016 (instead of seeking accelerated economic growth through a rate cut). Despite easing pressures on inflation and the country's current account balance, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that persistent global uncertainty (referring to the looming US Fed Fund Rate hike and China's slowdown) justifies the tight monetary stance.

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Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.

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