Indonesia’s official foreign exchange reserve assets stood at USD $102.6 billion as of the end of March 2014, a slight decline from the level of USD $102.7 billion in the previous month. The decline was mainly due to government payments in the context of its maturing global bond in March 2014. At this level, reserve assets can adequately cover 5.9 months of imports or 5.7 months of imports as  well as servicing of government external debt repayment, well above the international standards of reserves adequacy at three months of imports.

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Indonesian consumer confidence continued to grow in March 2014. According to the latest survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), the country's consumer confidence rose to 118.2 in March from 116.2 one month earlier. Indonesians are particularly optimistic about domestic economic conditions over the next six months, evidenced by a 3.2 point rise in the Consumer Expectations Index to 123.9 points. Increasing consumer confidence is positive for household consumption, an important pillar of Indonesia's economic growth.

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Singapore-based DBS Bank predicts that household consumption in Indonesia will grow 5.6 percent (yoy) in the first semester of 2014, which is slightly higher than the growth recorded in the last three years. Gundy Cahyadi, economist at the DBS Bank, said that the main reason for this accelerated household consumption is the legislative election that will be held on 9 April 2014. Traditionally, consumption peaks in times of elections. Household consumption is one of the main pillars of Indonesia's economic growth, accounting for 55 percent of GDP.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects a trade surplus of around USD $700 million in February 2014. If Martowardojo's forecast is realized, it would be a sharp contrast to the USD $430.6 million trade deficit that was recorded one month earlier. In January, the trade deficit was mainly due to declining exports of coal and vegetable oil (which together account for 26.7 percent of total non-oil & gas exports), among others, due to ongoing annual contractual negotiations at the year-start.

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Contrary to the World Bank and Bank Indonesia that both revised down forecasts for economic growth of Indonesia in 2014, the government of Indonesia is still convinced that it can meet the target of 5.8 to 6.0 percent as has been set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). In its most recent Indonesia Economic Quarterly report, the World Bank said it expects Indonesia’s economic growth to reach 5.3 percent in 2014, while Bank Indonesia targets a 5.7 percentage growth rate.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) lowered its forecast for growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy in 2014 from the range of 5.8 - 6.2 percent to 5.5 - 5.9 percent as expansion of domestic consumption and exports are less robust than previously estimated. As such, Bank Indonesia implied that economic expansion of Indonesia will slow down further. Starting from 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Indonesia has declined steadily from 6.5 percent to 5.8 percent in 2013.

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It was decided at the Board of Governors' Meeting (on 13 March 2014) to hold the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent and the deposit facility rate at 5.75 percent. The policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to guide inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Recent developments indicate that the rate of inflation is under control and the current account deficit is shrinking.

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Credit growth in Indonesia's banking sector slowed in January 2014 to a growth pace of 20.9 percent (year-on-year), down from 21.4 percent (yoy) in the previous month. Total disbursed credit in January 2014 stood at IDR 3,287 trillion (USD 285 billion). The slowing pace of credit disbursement in Southeast Asia's largest economy is in accordance with the central bank's target to reduce credit growth in the banking sector to between 15 and 17 percent (yoy), said Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia.

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Tomorrow (13/03), Bank Indonesia will hold its next Board of Governor's Meeting to discuss general policies in the monetary field. As usual, market participants are highly interested in the central bank's assessment of the country's economic fundamentals and interest rates policy. However, predictions about Bank Indonesia's stance toward its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) are mixed. Some expect it to be kept at 7.50 percent as inflation has been under control. Others anticipate a 0.25 percent hike due to the country's weak exports.

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The latest survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) indicates that domestic private consumption and household consumption in Indonesia remain strong, evidenced by a 28.4 percentage growth (year-on-year) of retail sales in January 2014. This growth was particularly supported by strong sales of information and communication equipment. These sales rose 75 percent (yoy). Traditionally, Indonesia's private consumption accounts for about 55 percent of the country's total annual economic expansion.

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The central bank of Indonesia expects that Indonesia’s current account deficit will decline to below the three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) mark by the end of this year supported by sharply falling global oil prices and Indonesia’s recent subsidized fuel price hike. Hendar, Deputy Governor of the central bank, said that for every USD $1 decline in global oil prices, the country’s current account deficit narrows by about USD $170 million. Indonesia’s current account deficit fell to 3.1 percent of GDP in Q3-2014 (from 4.06 percent of GDP in Q2-2014).

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 12,164 per US dollar on Tuesday (25/11) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance is caused by local companies’ month-end US dollar demand as well as US dollar buying by Indonesia’s central bank. Although unconfirmed, it is speculated that the central bank is boosting its foreign exchange reserves ahead of a looming external shock triggered by higher US interest rates in the second or third quarter of 2015.

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Total foreign outstanding debt of Indonesia continues to grow at a robust pace. Based on data from the country’s central bank, total external debt rose 11.2 percent year-on-year to USD $292 billion at the end of September 2014 as private Indonesian companies have been eager to seek lower interest rates abroad. Privately-held foreign debt was up 14 percent y/y to USD $159.3 billion at end-September. Central Bank official Tirta Segara said that private sector debt is concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and mining sectors.

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Non-bank corporations in Indonesia that hold external (foreign-denominated) debt will be forced to hedge their foreign exchange holdings against the Indonesian rupiah with a ratio of 20 percent in the period 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015 in an effort to limit risks stemming from increased private sector external debt. At end-August 2014, privately-held foreign debt stood at USD $156.2 billion (53.8 percent of the country’s total external debt), increasing three-fold from end-2005 and thus jeopardizing macroeconomic stability.

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The wide current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to have eased in the third quarter of 2014. According to information from the country’s central bank, the current account deficit narrowed to 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3-2014 from 4.27 percent of GDP in the previous quarter. A deficit below the level of 3 percent of GDP is generally regarded as a sustainable level. The improvement in Q3-2014 is mainly due to resumed mineral exports after the government and several miners managed to finalize renegotiations.

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will not lower its key interest rate (BI rate) until accelerated inflation (brought on by the looming subsidized fuel price hike at the end of the year) has eased and US interest rates are stable (the US Federal Reserve may raise its key interest rate in the second or third quarter of 2015). This implies that the relatively high interest rate environment in Indonesia (the key BI rate has been at 7.50 percent for almost a year) will continue (to safeguard financial stability) at the expense of higher economic growth.

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