Tomorrow (13/03), Bank Indonesia will hold its next Board of Governor's Meeting to discuss general policies in the monetary field. As usual, market participants are highly interested in the central bank's assessment of the country's economic fundamentals and interest rates policy. However, predictions about Bank Indonesia's stance toward its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) are mixed. Some expect it to be kept at 7.50 percent as inflation has been under control. Others anticipate a 0.25 percent hike due to the country's weak exports.

Read more ›

The latest survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) indicates that domestic private consumption and household consumption in Indonesia remain strong, evidenced by a 28.4 percentage growth (year-on-year) of retail sales in January 2014. This growth was particularly supported by strong sales of information and communication equipment. These sales rose 75 percent (yoy). Traditionally, Indonesia's private consumption accounts for about 55 percent of the country's total annual economic expansion.

Read more ›

As had been confirmed by Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, earlier this week, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves rose 2.1 percent to USD $102.74 billion at the end of February 2014, particularly due to strong capital inflows. According to Martowardojo, capital inflows in the first two months of 2014 exceed net capital inflows throughout 2013. Bank Indonesia regards the current foreign exchange reserves sufficient to underpin external sector resilience and maintain sustainable economic growth in Indonesia looking ahead.

Read more ›

Yesterday (06/03), the central banks of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) and the Korea established a bilateral local currency swap arrangement. The arrangement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to KRW 10.7 trillion or IDR 115 trillion. The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by mutual consent of both sides. This arrangement is designed to promote bilateral trade and further strengthen financial cooperation for the economic development of the two countries.

Read more ›

Indonesia's February 2014 HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures the performance of the country's manufacturing industry, slipped to 50.5 from 51.0 in the previous month, thus indicating slowing growth (a reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction). Despite continued strong export orders, domestic demand weakened amid massive floods and volcanic eruptions at the start of the year.

Read more ›

Indonesia Investments updated the analysis of Indonesia's inflation rate in our Macroeconomic Indicators section. Indonesian inflation, which is traditionally more volatile and higher (due to robust economic growth) than in advanced countries or other emerging markets, accelerated recently after administered price adjustments in mid-2013 (particularly higher fuel prices). As a result, Bank Indonesia required to raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) gradually from 5.75 percent in June 2013 to 7.50 percent in November 2013.

Read more ›

Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) has sent a clear signal to those market participants that hope to see a lower benchmark interest rate (BI rate) in Southeast Asia's largest economy in the near future. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo stated that there will be no lower BI rate as long as there is looming global uncertainty. On the contrary, the possibility of another BI rate hike is still there. In 2013, Bank Indonesia raised its BI rate on five occassions in order to combat inflation and curb the country's wide current account deficit.

Read more ›

Following a meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers, Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri said in an interview that this year's economic growth in Indonesia may slow to the lowest level since 2009 as the government and central bank implemented various measures aimed at curbing GDP growth in order to safeguard financial stability. Basri said that GDP growth in the range of 5.5 to 5.8 percent is a more realistic forecast. Slower growth will help to realize the government's aim to reduce the current account deficit to between 2.0 and 2.5 percent of GDP.

Read more ›

Deputy Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) Perry Warjiyo said that as a consequence of the legislative and presidential elections, scheduled for April and July 2014, household consumption in Indonesia will grow an extra 0.2 percent. Domestic consumption, particularly household consumption accounts for around 55 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Bank Indonesia has curbed further growth of household consumption by raising the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) last year.

Read more ›

Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate continues its sharp appreciation on Valentine's day (14/02). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency was up 0.80 percent to IDR 11,880 per US dollar at 9:56 local Jakarta time. Yesterday (13/02), the rupiah had recorded a 0.89 pecent gain. This recent appreciating trend of the rupiah is caused by international investors' renewed confidence in Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals. Particularly the improvement in the country's current account deficit is well received by investors.

Read more ›

Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

Read more ›

Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

Read more ›

The central bank of Indonesia expects that Indonesia’s current account deficit will decline to below the three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) mark by the end of this year supported by sharply falling global oil prices and Indonesia’s recent subsidized fuel price hike. Hendar, Deputy Governor of the central bank, said that for every USD $1 decline in global oil prices, the country’s current account deficit narrows by about USD $170 million. Indonesia’s current account deficit fell to 3.1 percent of GDP in Q3-2014 (from 4.06 percent of GDP in Q2-2014).

Read more ›

The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

Read more ›

The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 12,164 per US dollar on Tuesday (25/11) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance is caused by local companies’ month-end US dollar demand as well as US dollar buying by Indonesia’s central bank. Although unconfirmed, it is speculated that the central bank is boosting its foreign exchange reserves ahead of a looming external shock triggered by higher US interest rates in the second or third quarter of 2015.

Read more ›

Total foreign outstanding debt of Indonesia continues to grow at a robust pace. Based on data from the country’s central bank, total external debt rose 11.2 percent year-on-year to USD $292 billion at the end of September 2014 as private Indonesian companies have been eager to seek lower interest rates abroad. Privately-held foreign debt was up 14 percent y/y to USD $159.3 billion at end-September. Central Bank official Tirta Segara said that private sector debt is concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and mining sectors.

Read more ›

Non-bank corporations in Indonesia that hold external (foreign-denominated) debt will be forced to hedge their foreign exchange holdings against the Indonesian rupiah with a ratio of 20 percent in the period 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015 in an effort to limit risks stemming from increased private sector external debt. At end-August 2014, privately-held foreign debt stood at USD $156.2 billion (53.8 percent of the country’s total external debt), increasing three-fold from end-2005 and thus jeopardizing macroeconomic stability.

Read more ›

The wide current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to have eased in the third quarter of 2014. According to information from the country’s central bank, the current account deficit narrowed to 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3-2014 from 4.27 percent of GDP in the previous quarter. A deficit below the level of 3 percent of GDP is generally regarded as a sustainable level. The improvement in Q3-2014 is mainly due to resumed mineral exports after the government and several miners managed to finalize renegotiations.

Read more ›

Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

Read more ›

Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

Read more ›