Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Latest Reports GDP
On Tuesday 5 December 2023 Indonesia Investments released the November 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report informs readers on the latest - and in our opinion most relevant - economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.
While we had hoped to see Indonesia’s gross domestic product (or GDP) growth rate at 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2023 (Q3-2023), it was not a real surprise to see the growth rate fall slightly below that level.
As if the external environment wasn’t already challenging enough, a new geopolitical crisis broke out when military organization Hamas attacked Israel in the morning of 7 October 2023 (from the Gaza Strip), killing over 1,400 Israelis while taking hostage more than 200 people.
On Sunday 5 November 2023 Indonesia Investments released the October 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report informs readers on the latest - and in our opinion most relevant - economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.
On 8 October 2023 Indonesia Investments released the September 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report discusses a number of key economic, political and social developments that were felt by Indonesia in the month of September 2023.
On Thursday (07.09.2023) Indonesia Investments released the August 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report discusses a selection of key economic, political and social developments that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of August 2023.
Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) shared some great news on 7 August 2023. The agency announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2023. This was better than most forecasts, including our projection of 4.9 percent (y/y).
On 7 August 2023 Indonesia Investments released the July 2023 edition of its monthly report, zooming in on various economic, political and social matters that were relevant in the month of July 2023.
In this article we take a look at the strength of the Indonesian economy by assessing a variety of macroeconomic indicators such as retail sales, consumer confidence, and credit growth.
On 6 July 2023 Indonesia Investments released the June 2023 edition of its monthly report. In the report we present a number of analyses of topics (all related to the economy, politics and social matters) that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of June 2023.
Latest Columns GDP
Tomorrow (05/02), Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia's official full-year 2015 economic growth figure. Nearly all analysts expect to see a figure that reflects the continuation of slowing economic growth. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.0 percent in 2014 and this is expected to have eased further to 4.7 percent or 4.8 percent in 2015 on the back of (interrelated) sluggish global growth, low commodity prices, and weak export performance. Domestically, Indonesia has or had to cope with high interest rates and inflation (hence curtailing people's purchasing power and consumption as well as business expansion).
While Indonesia is currently in the middle of expanding its 4G network, the nation remains placed among the countries that have the poorest Internet penetration rate in the world. A recent World Bank report, titled 'World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends', zooms in on the economic and social impact that occurs when a relative large part of the population cannot be connected to the Internet or when the government fails to keep pace with the growth of technology.
Consumer goods producer Unilever Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading consumer goods firms, is expected to show better corporate earnings in 2016 compared to the preceding years on improving purchasing power of Indonesia's population. The company's net profit is estimated to grow by 15 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the coming two years, while its EBIT margin is expected to remain above 23 percent as higher costs of raw materials are compensated by higher selling prices.
Both car sales and motorcycle sales declined in 2015 in Indonesia. Primary reason for this decline was people's weaker purchasing power amid the slowing economy and persistently low commodity prices. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have fallen to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009. Meanwhile, amid the sluggish global economy (especially China's slowdown) and falling oil prices, Indonesia gains relatively little from its commodity exports.
The performance of Astra International, one of Indonesia's leading diversified conglomerates (but particularly known for being the dominant force in the country's automotive industry), is expected to improve next year on the arrival of new car models, estimated accelerated economic growth and its rivals' stagnating production capacity expansion. As such, Astra International should be able to increase its market share and feel less need to offer its cars to customers at discounted rates.
Ace Hardware Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading retail companies that is engaged in the markets of home improvement and lifestyle products, is expected to show modest (single-digit) growth in 2016. Same store sales growth is estimated to grow in the range of 8-10 percent year-on-year (y/y). This modest performance is caused by weak purchasing power in Indonesia amid sluggish economic growth and due to the fragile rupiah (against the US dollar).
Today, the World Bank released the latest edition of its flagship publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled "Reforming amid Uncertainty". In this edition the Washington-based institution states that global conditions remain unfavorable despite financial markets having stabilized since October. Meanwhile, the country was negatively affected by severe man-made forest fires and toxic haze which cost Indonesia an estimated IDR 221 trillion (USD $16 billion or 1.9 percent of the country's gross domestic product) in five months.
An Indonesian analyst says the Indonesian government needs to increase efforts to boost people's purchasing power in order to achieve the government's economic growth target of 5.3 percent in 2016. Household consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the nation's total gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As such, if purchasing power continues to weaken, then the economic slowdown returns. The analyst suggests the government should consider to cut personal and corporate income taxes, delay the electricity tariff hike for 900 VA households, and lower fuel prices.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) relatively high in order to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability in 2016 (instead of seeking accelerated economic growth through a rate cut). Despite easing pressures on inflation and the country's current account balance, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that persistent global uncertainty (referring to the looming US Fed Fund Rate hike and China's slowdown) justifies the tight monetary stance.
Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.
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