Most Asian stock markets were stronger on Wednesday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 Index which rose 2.70 percent on expectation of further government stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 1.09 percent to 4,223.91 points supported by the region's rising stock indices as well as on the back of the second installment of Indonesia's economic policy package. Meanwhile, the rupiah appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 14,653 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Indonesian stocks experienced a remarkable roller coaster ride on Tuesday (29/09). After opening the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell more than two percent to a near three-year low. However, the index managed to finish the trading day at 4,178.41 points, a 1.41 percent rise. Meanwhile, Indonesia's rupiah managed to curb losses. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah passed beyond the IDR 14,800 per US dollar level several times but at the end of the day it had only weakened 0.11 percent to IDR 14,691 per US dollar.

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In an effort to support the ailing Indonesian rupiah, state-owned energy company Pertamina will cut its foreign exchange purchases on the spot market by around 50 percent. Pertamina together with state utility firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) account for about half of Indonesia's daily foreign exchange (forex) transactions as these companies require US dollars for fuel purchases and overseas debt settlements.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down over 2 percent, touching a three-year low, while the rupiah weakened beyond the IDR 14,800 per US dollar level (Bloomberg Dollar Index) around 09:00 am local Jakarta time on Tuesday (29/09) as the global selloff persists. Investors are concerned about the economic conditions of China and the world, low commodity prices, while anticipating a Fed Fund Rate hike.

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Stock indices in Asia were mixed on the first trading day of the week. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2.11 percent to 4,120.50 points (a two-year low), while the rupiah (remarkably) appreciated 0.13 percent to IDR 14,674 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, European markets were down after opening on Monday (28/09). What influenced these markets today?

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Indonesia plans to cut taxes for local exporters in a bid to boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while supporting the rupiah, as part of its second policy package. Indonesia’s rupiah has depreciated 18.1 percent since the start of 2015 due to looming higher US interest rates, low commodity prices, and China’s yuan devaluation. The government now plans to cut income tax on interest that exporters earn when depositing their export proceeds in local banks. Currently, income tax on bank interest (from deposit accounts) stands at 20 percent.

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After opening on Monday (28/09) Indonesian stocks rapidly fell amid mixed Asian markets. The main factor that causes several Asian markets to fall is declining Chinese industrial profits (triggering concern about a deepening slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy). China’s industrial profits fell 8.8 percent in August, down from July’s 2.9 percent drop. By 09:50 am local Jakarta time, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.41 percent to 4,150.27 points.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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Stock markets in Asia were mixed on Friday (25/09) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech at the University of Massachusetts that the US central bank is still on track to raise interest rates before the year-end (provided no economic shocks take place as the move is data-dependent). After this looming hike, Yellen suggests to gradually tighten US monetary policy thereafter.

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In line with other Asian emerging markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are weakening on Friday (25/09) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said during her speech at the University of Massachusetts that US interest rates are likely to be raised before the year-end, provided no economic shocks occur. Yellen stated that most FOMC participants agree on a Fed Fund Rate hike later this year, followed by gradual further monetary tightening thereafter.

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After Indonesia’s political year of 2014 ended, financial institutions expect to experience better times in 2015. Last year, economic growth of Indonesia slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) due to weak exports, the high domestic interest rate environment, and political uncertainties caused by Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections. This year, however, economic growth is expected to accelerate - albeit slightly - implying stronger purchasing power. One of the businesses that will profit is mutual fund management.

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On March 31, 2015, Bank Indonesia issued regulation number 17/3/PBI/2015 concerning Mandatory Use of Rupiah in the Territory of Indonesia (BI Regulation). In the much discussed Law number 7 of 2011 concerning Currency the mandatory use of rupiah in Indonesia was already regulated, however could be exempted in case the contract parties had agreed in writing to the terms of payment in a currency other than rupiah. Under the new BI regulation the terms on the use of foreign currencies are further restricted. In this column we discuss the most important changes based on the BI Regulation.

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Over the past week, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,850 per US dollar on Friday (17/04). Only a month ago, investors and policymakers were alarmed when the rupiah touched IDR 13,245 per US dollar, a 17-year low. This column discusses the factors that caused the strengthening of the rupiah in recent weeks. However, amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA, this development should be short-term only.

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When we look at market activity in the Indonesian rupiah, some very clear trends have started to emerge. When viewed against the US dollar the rupiah has seen pronounced weakness over this time frame. Many investors have started to view this activity as overdone and we have started to see analyst forecasts calling for more strength in the rupiah over the next few months. But there are also arguments that can be made against this outlook and it will be important for those investing in Indonesian assets to understand some of these factors, so that proper positioning can be undertaken.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that, besides global volatility caused by uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, the rupiah has been - and remains - under pressure due to Indonesia’s increasing private sector debt and the wide current account deficit. Moreover, as subsidiaries of multinational companies in Indonesia tend to send back dividends to the foreign parent companies in the second quarter (implying rising US dollar demand), the rupiah is plagued by additional pressures up to June.

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Indonesia’s consumer price index fell for the second consecutive month in February 2015, recording deflation of 0.36 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February, while on an annual basis Indonesian inflation eased to 6.29 percent (y/y), down from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Inflationary pressures declined primarily on the back of lower prices of chili peppers and fuel. Easing inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy may provide room for Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) to cut interest rates further this year.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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The Indonesian rupiah strengthened on Monday (16/02) as the country’s twin current account and trade balances improved, while the US dollar weakened on disappointing US retail sales and on optimism that Greece will remain a member of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Finance Ministry held a successful auction today in which it sold IDR 12 trillion (USD $942 million) of conventional bonds. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,753 per US dollar based on Monday (16/02).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated and Indonesian stocks rose on Wednesday (04/02) on the back of rallying oil prices, a successful bond auction, easing tensions in Europe, and weak US factory orders. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 12,630 per US dollar on Wednesday (04/03). Meanwhile, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) climbed 0.45 percent to 5,315.28 points.

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Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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