The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent respectively on Thursday (12/09). It is the fourth time since June that Bank Indonesia raised the interest rate. Previously, it maintained a historic low BI rate of 5.75 percent for 16 months. The increase is one of the measures taken to control inflation, stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and to ensure that the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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For the first time since April 2013, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have shown a small growth. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) stated that in late August, the foreign exchange reserves rose to USD $92.99 billion from USD $92.67 billion a month earlier. The growth was a surprise as continued capital outflows from Indonesia's financial markets was expected to translate into lower reserves. Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index fell 2.97 percent, while the rupiah fell 2.55 percent against the US dollar.

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Indonesia's inflation rate in August 2013 was 1.12 percent (month to month) according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This result is rather positive as many analysts projected a higher outcome for August inflation. Last month (July), inflation accelerated by 3.29 percent as the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices was felt in combination with weak government policies regarding food quotas, Muslim celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) as well as the beginning of the news school year.

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According to Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), the higher benchmark interest rate (BI rate) will slow down credit growth in the Indonesian banking sector from a current pace of 19.6 percent (after second week of August 2013) to around 18 percent. The BI rate was raised to 7.0 percent last week. Besides the BI rate, both the lending facility rate and the deposit facility rate (Fasbi) were raised to 7.0 percent and 5.25 percent respectively to support the rupiah, while curbing inflationary pressures.

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Apart from Indonesia's current account deficit, another indicator that is closely watched by the investor community is the country's inflation rate. After subsidized fuel prices were raised in late-June, inflation soared to 8.61 percent in July (YoY), weakening people's purchasing power (as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of economic growth), thus eroding economic growth, investments and the currency. On Monday (02/09), Statistics Indonesia will release the official August inflation rate.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 50 basis points to 7.0 percent on Thursday (29/08) in order to support the weakening rupiah amid slowing global economic growth. The rupiah has been on a long losing streak and has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar in four years. The BI rate had already been raised in June and July from a historically low 5.75 percent to 6.50 percent. Today, an extra meeting was scheduled to discuss policy measures.

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Indonesia's banking sector is expected to have no difficulties in coping with current financial turmoil in Indonesia's economy. The country's banking industry is much stronger and healthier now than when the crisis in 1997-1998 or 2008 erupted. There have been reports that a few small banks have used the central bank's overnight lending facility, but various stress tests indicate that the banking sector is strong. Gross non performing loans per June 2013 have been kept below1.9 percent, which is significantly lower compared to previous periods.

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Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) Agus Martowardojo said that the central bank will respond to current market conditions on Thursday (29/08). Bank Indonesia will have an extra board meeting to discuss measures to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability. It will touch matters such as macro-prudential policy, the interest rate and currency control. Normally, the central bank meets once per month but Martowardojo felt that this extra meeting is needed as the next scheduled meeting (12/09) is too far away.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that Indonesia's inflation rate in August will reach about 1.3 percent (month to month), implying that the annual inflation rate will exceed 8.9 percent (year on year) in the same month. Prices of several commodities and horticultural products are still not showing a decrease in prices. These products include beef, chicken meat and onions. Thus, Bank Indonesia requests that the central and regional governments take great care in safeguarding the country's food supplies.

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Business players in Indonesia's property sector are not happy with the government's intention to collect more tax from the sector in 2014 and onwards. The property sector has been one of the fastest growing sectors in Indonesia's economy in recent years as demand for property has surged significantly among Indonesia's expanding middle class, resulting in massive profit numbers for Indonesian property companies. Meanwhile, the government of Indonesia has been busy taking efforts to increase tax revenues.

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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The central bank of Indonesia expects that Indonesia’s current account deficit will decline to below the three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) mark by the end of this year supported by sharply falling global oil prices and Indonesia’s recent subsidized fuel price hike. Hendar, Deputy Governor of the central bank, said that for every USD $1 decline in global oil prices, the country’s current account deficit narrows by about USD $170 million. Indonesia’s current account deficit fell to 3.1 percent of GDP in Q3-2014 (from 4.06 percent of GDP in Q2-2014).

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 12,164 per US dollar on Tuesday (25/11) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance is caused by local companies’ month-end US dollar demand as well as US dollar buying by Indonesia’s central bank. Although unconfirmed, it is speculated that the central bank is boosting its foreign exchange reserves ahead of a looming external shock triggered by higher US interest rates in the second or third quarter of 2015.

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Total foreign outstanding debt of Indonesia continues to grow at a robust pace. Based on data from the country’s central bank, total external debt rose 11.2 percent year-on-year to USD $292 billion at the end of September 2014 as private Indonesian companies have been eager to seek lower interest rates abroad. Privately-held foreign debt was up 14 percent y/y to USD $159.3 billion at end-September. Central Bank official Tirta Segara said that private sector debt is concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and mining sectors.

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Non-bank corporations in Indonesia that hold external (foreign-denominated) debt will be forced to hedge their foreign exchange holdings against the Indonesian rupiah with a ratio of 20 percent in the period 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015 in an effort to limit risks stemming from increased private sector external debt. At end-August 2014, privately-held foreign debt stood at USD $156.2 billion (53.8 percent of the country’s total external debt), increasing three-fold from end-2005 and thus jeopardizing macroeconomic stability.

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The wide current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to have eased in the third quarter of 2014. According to information from the country’s central bank, the current account deficit narrowed to 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3-2014 from 4.27 percent of GDP in the previous quarter. A deficit below the level of 3 percent of GDP is generally regarded as a sustainable level. The improvement in Q3-2014 is mainly due to resumed mineral exports after the government and several miners managed to finalize renegotiations.

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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