The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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Indonesian Trade Minister Rachmat Gobel said that the continuation of economic cooperation between Indonesia and Japan, as set out in the Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA), is to be reviewed soon by both countries. Gobel met Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoichi Miyazawa in Tokyo today. In the IJEPA it was mentioned that cooperation between both countries can be reviewed after the bilateral free-trade agreement had been in effect for five years.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia, which is expected to have improved slightly from 3.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to about 3 percent of GDP in 2014, is forecast to continue to improve in 2015 hence placing less pressures on the rupiah exchange rate and the economy in general. A wide current account deficit makes the country vulnerable to capital outflows in times of global shocks (for example looming higher US interest rates) as the deficit signals that Indonesia relies on foreign funding.

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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On Monday morning (08/12), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate quickly plunged after the release of weak macroeconomic data from Japan and China, two important trading partners of Indonesia. Economic growth in Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, contracted 0.5 percent (quarter-to-quarter) in Q3-2014, while Chinese imports fell 6.7 percent (year-on-year) in November 2014. As a result the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 12,365 per US dollar by 11:30 am local Jakarta time, the weakest level in six years.

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Statistics Indonesia announced on Wednesday (05/11) that economic growth in Indonesia reached 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014. This result was slightly below analysts’ forecasts and implies that the slowing trend of economic expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continues. Since 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been declining amid global and domestic developments. The 5.01 percentage point GDP growth in Q3-2014 was the slowest quarterly growth pace in five years.

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With China’s economic growth slowing to 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, Indonesian exports will be affected as China is one of Indonesia’s most important trading partners. Prior to the release of China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result, the outgoing government of Indonesia had already trimmed its export target for 2014 as global commodity prices have still not picked up. In fact prices of palm oil, coal, rubber, copper and iron ore have fallen in the first three quarters of 2014 according to Indonesian government data.

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A new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says that the Indonesian economy is expected to slow on weak export performance in 2014 before picking up in 2015 as external demand improves and the new government’s reform agenda takes hold. In an update of its Asian Development Outlook 2014, the ADB trimmed its forecast for 2014 growth in Indonesian gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.3 percent from 5.7 percent expected in April. The ADB expects a growth pace of 5.8 percent in 2015, down from 6.0 percent in April.

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The European Union (EU) and Indonesia’s Trade Ministry have cooperated to develop an online portal (www.inatrims.kemendag.go.id/en) in an effort to assist Indonesian businesses that want to export their products to the European Union. This portal website is intended to guide exporting companies by providing various information on relevant market requirements and regulations. The portal - called Indonesia Technical Regulations Information Management System (INATRIMS) - was launched on Thursday (28/08).

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Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2014 slowed to 5.12 percent (year-on-year, yoy), thus decelerating compared to the nation’s GDP growth in the previous quarter (5.22 percent yoy). The Q2-2014 GDP growth result was lower than the figure that was projected by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia). The institution previously stated that it expected Q2-014 economic growth to reach 5.3 percent (yoy). Below are some comment of Bank Indonesia on economic growth in the second quarter.

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Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

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Indonesia's production of crude palm oil (CPO) in the first six months of 2013 rose 25.64 percent compared to semester I-2012 to 14.7 million tons, which is a little over half of this year's CPO production target. Despite weak global demand for the commodity (accompanied by falling CPO prices), growth was accomplished due to new seeds that became productive and because the total size of Indonesian palm oil estates continues to expand. Productive estates now stand at 9.4 million hectares from 8.7 million hectares last year.

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Last week (22-26 July 2013), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) ended 1.39 percent down at 4,658.87. The daily value of transactions on the regular market narrowed to an average of IDR 3 trillion (USD $300 million) from IDR 3.84 trillion in the previous week. Foreigners still recorded net sales amounting to IDR 92.9 billion (USD $9.3 million). Lack of positive sentiments, financial results of companies that were below expectation and the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar resulted in the decline of the index.

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Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The World Bank has revised down its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 to 5.9 percent from its original estimate of 6.2 percent. Similarly, the institution has altered its forecast for economic growth in 2014 from 6.5 percent to 6.2 percent. The revised figures were published in July's edition of the Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled 'Adjusting to Pressures'. The World Bank's forecast is also in sharp contrast with the GDP assumption of the Indonesian government, which puts economic growth in 2013 at 6.3 percent.

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Similar to the Jakarta Great Sale event, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) trades its stocks at low prices as foreign investors have sold large parts of their Indonesian stock assets in recent weeks. Last week, foreign investors sold IDR 4.9 trillion (about USD $492.4 million), meaning that this year's accumulated foreign net buying has evaporated. Will these sales continue? Yes, I think so. Foreigners have invested about IDR 144 trillion in Indonesia's capital markets between 2007 and Q1-2013. As such, there is still plenty to sell.

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Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.

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The slowing pace of investments has made the Indonesian government decide to revise down its forecast for economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. Minister of Finance, M. Chatib Basri, believes that GDP growth will not exceed the six percent threshold in Q2-2013. He explained that there are a number of factors that refrain the government from setting a higher growth assumption. These factors include ailing exports, non-optimal government spending, and diminishing gross fixed capital investment.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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