On 31 May 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as Indonesia’s GDP growth, a stocks and rupiah update, the IPO of Puradelta Lestari, Indonesia’s participation in a news Islamic infrastructure bank, the role of household consumption in the Indonesian economy, and more.

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Most Asian stock markets are down on Wednesday (27/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG). The IHSG was down 0.95 percent to 5,270.22 points by 14:32 pm local Jakarta time. The poor performance of stocks across Asia today followed yesterday’s falling US stock markets. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all declined about 1 percent on US dollar strength after the release of several strong US economic data (supporting a US interest rate hike before the year-end) and heightened concerns about the debt crisis in Greece.

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The Indonesian rupiah started the new trading week on a negative note. By 10:45 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 13,181 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The primary reason for this performance is that the US dollar has strengthened globally after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stated that she is convinced that the world will see the first US interest rate hike in almost a decade before the end of the year (provided that US economic data continue to improve).

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Indonesian stocks continued to rise one day after the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced to leave the interest rate policy unchanged and, instead, choosing to loosen its macro-prudential policy by revising the LDR-RR regulation, LTV policy for mortgage loans and down payments on automotive loans, hence increasing liquidity and boosting credit growth in the banking sector. Indonesia's rupiah, however, depreciated sharply after the market opened on Wednesday (20/05) due to the strong US dollar.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) showed that it is committed to its relatively tight monetary stance as it left interest rates unchanged at its May Board of Governor’s Meeting. Despite pressures from the government and business players to cut interest rates (which would boost economic growth), Bank Indonesia maintained its key BI rate at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility at 5.50 percent and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. In the first quarter of 2015 Indonesia’s economic growth had slowed to a disappointing 4.71 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia’s rupiah continued to weaken on Monday’s trading day (18/05). The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,113 per US dollar by 12:08 pm based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index as market participants are waiting for results of the central bank’s Board of Governor’s Meeting, scheduled for Tuesday (19/05). At this meeting Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) will discuss and determine its stance on the country’s interest rate environment. Currently, the key rate (BI rate) is set relatively high at 7.50 percent.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again depreciating. On Tuesday (12/05), the rupiah had depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,206 per US dollar by 11:51 am local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The primary reason for this weak performance today is US dollar demand amid heightened concerns about Greece’s debt situation. Talks between the Greek leftist government and its international partners are heading toward a crucial phase. As a result, the greenback is appreciating against almost all Asian currencies.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (08/05) that the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell approximately USD $700 million to USD $110.87 billion at the end of April 2015 (from USD $111.55 billion one month earlier). The decline was due to government foreign debt payments as well as central bank efforts to stabilize the rupiah currency amid the current volatile and uncertain (global and domestic) economic context. In April, the rupiah appreciated 0.8 percent against the US dollar.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah improved on the last trading day of the week supported by moderately rising indices on Wall Street on Thursday (07/05), which was in stark contrast to heavy selling that occurred one day earlier after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s statement that US stock prices may be overvalued. Meanwhile, weak trade data from China could a reason for policymakers to provide more stimulus. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index climbed 0.62 percent to 5,182.21 points on Friday (08/05).

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After seeing the disappointing GDP growth figure of 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, investors have become concerned about Indonesia’s economic growth in the remainder of the year. The poor Q1-2015 GDP growth was caused by the country’s weak export performance (due to the sluggish global economy and low commodity prices), Indonesia’s high interest rate environment (curbing people’s purchasing power and business expansion of local companies), and sluggish government spending.

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In line with the performance of other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate appreciated on Monday (12/01) as the fall in US wages (released late last week) caused speculation that the Federal Reserve will - for now - delay its plan to start raising US borrowing costs. Despite solid growing US non-farm payrolls in December 2014, US wages (average hourly earnings) fell the most in eight years. Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 12,599 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks gained on the last trading day of the week in line with the performance of other emerging markets. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHGS) rose 0.09 percent to 5,216.67 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,647 according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The positive performance was mainly caused by speculation that the unexpected fall in US wages will keep the US central bank from raising its key interest rate soon.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued to fall on Tuesday (06/01) as global conditions remained unconducive. Indices on Wall Street had declined sharply yesterday as the global oil prices fell below USD $50 per barrel fueling concerns about a weaker global economy. Similarly, most Asian stock indices declined as Japan's yen appreciated and energy stocks were sold by investors. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.98 percent to 5,169.06 points.

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Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate and stocks opened stable on Wednesday (17/12) after two days marked by severe pressures on emerging market assets. By 11:30 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s rupiah was down 0.09 percent to IDR 12,736 per US dollar (according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index), while Indonesian stocks were up 0.41 percent by the same time. Yesterday, the rupiah nearly touched IDR 13,000 per US dollar (its lowest level since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998), before the central bank decided to support the currency.

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Amid weakening emerging Asian currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate touched a six-year low on Friday (12/12) after US consumer spending rose in November while US jobless claims fell (signalling a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.95 percent to IDR 12,467 per US dollar on Friday. Besides the impact of the US dollar’s bullish momentum, the rupiah also weakened on year-end US dollar demand from local companies for debt payments.

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate appreciated slightly on Tuesday (02/12). By 12:50 pm local Jakarta time, the currency had appreciated 0.03 percent to 12,277 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Yesterday, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated to the lowest level since January 2014 after official government data showed that inflation had accelerated sharply, while exports contracted more than expected, implying that the country’s wide current account deficit remains troublesome.

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In line with most other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Friday (28/11). Market players continue to buy US dollars amid falling oil prices. Japan’s yen even fell to a seven-year low against the US dollar after government data showed that household spending declined four percent (y/y) and inflation slowed in the world’s third-largest economy. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,204 per US dollar by 15:35 pm local Jakarta time.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 12,164 per US dollar on Tuesday (25/11) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance is caused by local companies’ month-end US dollar demand as well as US dollar buying by Indonesia’s central bank. Although unconfirmed, it is speculated that the central bank is boosting its foreign exchange reserves ahead of a looming external shock triggered by higher US interest rates in the second or third quarter of 2015.

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