Most Asian stocks slid on Monday (22/08) as there occurred renewed speculation about a Fed Funds Rate hike in September 2016 after hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, while crude oil prices fell nearly 2 percent in Asian trade after Iraq indicated that it seeks to boost exports, hence effectively snapping a seven-day winning streak. However, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was up 0.21 percent to 5,427.17 points on the first trading day of the new week.

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After the impressive rally last week (fed by hopes of more stimulus measures from central banks), concern about Brexit (Britain's decision to exit the European Union) is now impacting significantly on assets worldwide. With growing fears about instability in the European Union (EU) investors have become "more realistic" and seek safe haven assets, such as government bonds, Japan's yen, the US dollar and gold. A closer look at currencies and yields signals what is going on in investors' minds. Meanwhile, commodity prices - led by crude oil - extended their falls.

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In line with other Asian assets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah strengthened on Monday (20/06) as falling odds of a "Brexit" boosts risk appetite. Voters in the United Kingdom will decide in a referendum on Thursday (23/06) whether or not to remain part of the European Union (EU). An exit of the UK from the EU (the so-called "Brexit") is expected to cause a major global shock and flight to safety. The latest opinion polls, however, indicate a growing chance that the UK will remain part of the UK, hence causing a sigh of relief on global markets. Meanwhile, oil prices were up on the weakening US dollar.

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Changing perceptions about US monetary policy have a big impact on Indonesian stocks and - especially - the rupiah, today. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 1.30 percent to IDR 13,418 per US dollar by 12:55 pm local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Composite index rose 0.52 percent to 4,879.06 after the first trading session on Monday (06/06). What caused this performance? Well, the release of the weakest US jobs data since 2010.

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For sure Indonesia's financial system will be affected by the Federal Reserve's decision to implement another interest rate hike, and especially emerging market currencies - including the rupiah - are vulnerable to further monetary tightening in the world's top economy. Most analysts now believe a Fed Funds Rate (FFR) hike could occur in July 2016. In previous rounds of US monetary tightening (QE tapering and the December 2015 FFR hike) we witnessed large capital outflows from Indonesia. What will be the impact of another US interest rate hike on Indonesia?

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Over the past couple of trading days Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have been under pressure due to increasing speculation about a sooner-than-expected Fed Funds Rate hike in the USA. These pressures have caused some volatile behavior in the performance of emerging market stocks and currencies. Today, however, most Asian stocks moved higher with the notable exception of Japanese shares that were plagued by the release of weak April trade data. Meanwhile, the G-7 meeting last weekend failed to result in an agreement on a plan to revive global growth.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) are under pressure on Thursday (19/05) as renewed speculation about a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the USA puts severe pressure on emerging market assets, while the US dollar is appreciating sharply. Based on the minutes of the 26-27 April Federal Reserve meeting, more and more analysts believe that another Fed Fund Rate hike could come as early as June 2016.

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Indonesia's foreign debt rose 3.7 percent (y/y) to USD $311.5 billion at end-February 2016, a higher growth pace compared to the 2.2 percent (y/y) recorded in the preceding month. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) informed that rising foreign debt was solely due to higher public sector foreign debt, while private sector foreign debt in fact eased. The Indonesian government took up long-term foreign debt to fund its ambitious infrastructure development programs. As a result, public sector external debt rose 9 percent to USD $146.9 billion in February, or 47.2 percent of Indonesia's total foreign debt.

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Stocks in Asia were mostly up on Tuesday (12/04) supported by the weaker Japanese yen (retreating after a seven-day rally again the US dollar) and rising commodity prices (with crude oil touching a 2016 high at USD $43 per barrel after the US dollar weakened). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.89 percent to 4,829.57 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Several analysts claim that the positive performance of Indonesian assets was also due to the government's plan to cut the corporate income tax to 20 percent and raise the non-taxable personal income tax by 50 percent.

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The Indonesian rupiah is extending its strong performance. On Monday morning (14/03), Indonesia's currency has been flirting with the IDR 13,000 per US dollar level. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had appreciated 0.48 percent to IDR 13,012 by 09:25 am local Jakarta time. The rupiah is one of the "commodity-sensitive" currencies that are feeling the positive impact of rising crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.52 percent after opening of trade on Monday.

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Most of us who were hoping for a limited weakening of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) today (27/08) were to be disappointed. Instead of a limited decline, the IHSG fell 3.71 percent to 3,967.84 points. Market participants are concerned about both the global and domestic economy, thus pulling money out from Indonesia. The weakening rupiah and weak stock index openings in Europe (due to tensions in Syria) pushed the IHSG further down into red territory. Foreign investors were again net sellers of Indonesian assets.

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Today's release of the economic rescue package was not able to put Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) into green territory. Also, the Indonesian rupiah maintained its losing streak. The IHSG fell 0.04 percent to 4,169.83 points. Interestingly enough, the IHSG was rising previous to the release of the package. After the release, however, it started to weaken slightly, which seems to indicate that market participants were a bit disappointed with the contents of the package as it contained no quick fixes to the economy.

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As had been announced previously, today (23/08) the government of Indonesia released an 'emergency plan' that aims to improve the financial sector while restoring confidence in the country's fundamentals as turmoil emerged on Indonesia's stock exchange, bonds market and the rupiah. Economic minister Hatta Rajasa said that this plan consists of four packages. These four packages cover the current account deficit, rupiah performance, economic growth, purchasing power, inflation and investments.

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On Thursday (22/08), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue the rebound that occurred yesterday when the country's biggest pension fund, Jamsostek, began buying blue-chip stocks in a move to support the ailing index. Indonesia's benchmark index has now lost about 20 percent since its record peak in May 2013. Today, it fell 1.11 percent to 4,171.41 points. Eight sectoral indices weakened, of which the top losers were construction (-5.78 percent), basic industry (-3.42 percent), and finance (-2.39 percent).

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Concerns about Indonesia's weakening rupiah intensified on Wednesday (21/08) as the currency is now balancing on the psychological boundary of IDR 11,000 per US dollar. The rupiah continued its downward spiral today although its decline was limited due to the intervention of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) that started selling US dollars again in an effort to support the rupiah. According to data compiled by Reuters, the rupiah has now fallen 10.7 percent this year.

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After Wall Street turned back into the green zone on Tuesday (13/08) and was accompanied by continued rising stock indices in Europe, it provided good support for Asian stock indices on Wednesday (14/08), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Indonesian mining commodities and plantation stocks fell but these losses were offset by rising big cap stocks (particularly finance stocks) and speculation that Indonesia's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 6.50 percent.

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Last week (22-26 July 2013), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) ended 1.39 percent down at 4,658.87. The daily value of transactions on the regular market narrowed to an average of IDR 3 trillion (USD $300 million) from IDR 3.84 trillion in the previous week. Foreigners still recorded net sales amounting to IDR 92.9 billion (USD $9.3 million). Lack of positive sentiments, financial results of companies that were below expectation and the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar resulted in the decline of the index.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) continued its weakening trend this week. The index fell 0.93 percent to 4,674.12 on Thursday (25/07). This downward movement today was in line with most other Asian stock indices. All sectoral indices of the IHSG weakened, except for the miscellaneous industry. Indonesian blue chips, in particular, were under pressure. Unilever Indonesia fell 3.38 percent and Bank Mandiri lost 3.37 percent. Trade was relatively quiet with value of transactions at IDR 4.5 trillion (USD $441.2 million).

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Indonesia's Composite Index (IHSG), the main stock index of Indonesia, went back into negative territory on Wednesday (24/07) with all sectors closing in the red. Worst performing sectoral indices were construction, agriculture and the miscellaneous industry. This development was in line with the Asian region that showed mixed performances after HSBC's Chinese manufacturing PMI contracted. Stock indices in Europe and the United states, that both close hours after the IHSG ends its daily session, were more positive on Wednesday.

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The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is experiencing one of its worst losing streaks in a decade. On Friday (19/07), the currency weakened to IDR 10,070 against the US dollar, which implies a devaluation of 4.14% in 2013 so far. The central bank of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, does all it can to support the currency: the country's lender of last resort supplies dollars to the market triggering the reduction of foreign reserves from USD $105 million at end-May to $98 million at end-June, and raised its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) by 50 bps to 6.50%.

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