Although challenges persist, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) is estimated to rise in 2016, surpassing the level of 5,000 points. Last year the index fell 12.13 percent to close at 4,593.01 points. In particular Indonesia's infrastructure, banking, consumption, cement, property and construction sectors are expected to post a good performance this year on the back of accelerated domestic economic growth supported by government spending and the recent economic stimulus packages.

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The last trading day of 2015 on the Indonesia Stock Exchange has passed and now it is time to look back on the performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) and the rupiah during 2015. The year 2015 was a hectic year, characterized by volatile behavior due to uncertainty about the timing of the looming US interest rate hike (which was finally decided upon by the Federal Reserve in December 2015) and the economic slowdown of China.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued its remarkable rally on Tuesday (22/12). The currency had appreciated 0.98 percent to IDR 13,672 per US dollar by 11:10 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah has recovered from a recent low of IDR 14,123 on Monday 14 December to IDR 13,672 per US dollar, a 3.2 percentage point advance in about one week. There are several matters that explain this remarkable performance.

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The Indonesian rupiah is strengthening remarkably against the US dollar on Monday (21/12) despite expectation that the rupiah will become the worst-performing Asian currency in 2016 on capital outflows (amid more US interest rate hikes planned for 2016), Indonesia's falling foreign exchange reserves, and persistent low commodity prices. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 1.13 percent to IDR 13,760 per US dollar by 14:20 pm local Jakarta time on Monday (21/12).

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On 20 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, Indonesia's interest rate environment, the trade balance, the country's energy mix, updates of the performance of listed companies, and more.

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Stock indices in Southeast Asia plunged on Friday (18/12), led by benchmark indices in Thailand and Indonesia. These Asian markets followed the global correction that occurred after investors weighed in the possible impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. US and European stocks dropped on Thursday and Friday, while prices of oil and other commodities continued to slide. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.92 percent to 4,468.65 points.

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After the rally on Thursday (responding positively to the Federal Reserve's announcement to raise its Fed Fund Rate), Indonesian assets are weakening on Friday (18/12) while most other Asian markets are down. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.20 percent to 4,501.34 points by 09:45 am local Jakarta time, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 14,040 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). As such, Indonesian stocks are following the example of US stocks that plunged overnight.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Southeast Asia's largest economy, kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the December policy meeting on Thursday (17/12). Meanwhile, the overnight deposit rate facility (Fasbi) was left unchanged at 5.50 percent and the lending facility at 8.00 percent. It was the tenth consecutive month without changing the country's interest rate environment (in February 2015 the central bank cut the BI rate by 0.25 percent).

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah responded highly positive to the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise its key Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday (16/12). Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) soared 1.62 percent to 4,555.96 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.44 percent to IDR 14,009 per US dollar. Not only in Indonesia but also globally stocks thrived on the ending of prolonged uncertainty about the timing of the US interest rate hike.

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The US Federal Reserve finally decided to raise the Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting (15-16 December) on a considerable improvement in US labor market conditions (the US unemployment rate having fallen to 5 percent) and US inflation projected to meet the Fed's 2 percent target over the medium term. After this announcement US stocks soared. Emerging markets were not hit by severe capital outflows after the rate hike. Asian stock indices strengthened sharply on Thursday morning (17/12).

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued to fall on Tuesday (06/01) as global conditions remained unconducive. Indices on Wall Street had declined sharply yesterday as the global oil prices fell below USD $50 per barrel fueling concerns about a weaker global economy. Similarly, most Asian stock indices declined as Japan's yen appreciated and energy stocks were sold by investors. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.98 percent to 5,169.06 points.

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Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate and stocks opened stable on Wednesday (17/12) after two days marked by severe pressures on emerging market assets. By 11:30 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s rupiah was down 0.09 percent to IDR 12,736 per US dollar (according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index), while Indonesian stocks were up 0.41 percent by the same time. Yesterday, the rupiah nearly touched IDR 13,000 per US dollar (its lowest level since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998), before the central bank decided to support the currency.

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Amid weakening emerging Asian currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate touched a six-year low on Friday (12/12) after US consumer spending rose in November while US jobless claims fell (signalling a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.95 percent to IDR 12,467 per US dollar on Friday. Besides the impact of the US dollar’s bullish momentum, the rupiah also weakened on year-end US dollar demand from local companies for debt payments.

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate appreciated slightly on Tuesday (02/12). By 12:50 pm local Jakarta time, the currency had appreciated 0.03 percent to 12,277 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Yesterday, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated to the lowest level since January 2014 after official government data showed that inflation had accelerated sharply, while exports contracted more than expected, implying that the country’s wide current account deficit remains troublesome.

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In line with most other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Friday (28/11). Market players continue to buy US dollars amid falling oil prices. Japan’s yen even fell to a seven-year low against the US dollar after government data showed that household spending declined four percent (y/y) and inflation slowed in the world’s third-largest economy. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,204 per US dollar by 15:35 pm local Jakarta time.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 12,164 per US dollar on Tuesday (25/11) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance is caused by local companies’ month-end US dollar demand as well as US dollar buying by Indonesia’s central bank. Although unconfirmed, it is speculated that the central bank is boosting its foreign exchange reserves ahead of a looming external shock triggered by higher US interest rates in the second or third quarter of 2015.

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Amid mostly gaining stock markets in Southeast Asia on Tuesday (11/11), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rebounded sharply after several days of declines. Most Indonesian blue chip stocks rose considerably after having tumbled in recent days. Positive market sentiments were caused by Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo’s participation in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing as well as news that both camps in Indonesian parliament have agreed to work together.

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Although we initially expected that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) would be supported by the various macroeconomic data (inflation, trade balance, and manufacturing activity) that were released by Statistics Indonesia today, the opposite is what happened. The index went into red territory amid profit taking, although the bond market in fact strengthened and foreign investors recorded net buying at IDR 224 billion (USD $18.7 million).

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