Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati believes economic growth of Indonesia in 2017 can exceed the target that was set by the central government in the state budget. While the official target in the 2017 State Budget was set at 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y), Sri Mulyani expects to see the growth rate at 5.2 percent (y/y) on the back of rising consumption and investment, while she predicts an end to the trend of falling imports and exports.

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Indonesia Statistics (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/03) that Indonesia's exports and imports grew at a slower pace in February 2017 (compared to the preceding month). This performance was in line with expectations. While Indonesia's exports grew 11.16 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $12.57 billion in February 2017, its imports grew 10.61 percent (y/y) to USD $11.26 billion over the same period.

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Indonesia's exports of footwear to the United States (USA) are expected to reach the value of USD $1.5 billion in 2017, up 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) from USD $1.34 billion last year. This increase is expected to come on the back of US President Donald Trump's eagerness to limit imports from China by introducing higher tariffs. This policy should now open up opportunities for Indonesian footwear exporters.

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Due to rising commodity prices Indonesia saw its export performance surge in January 2017. According to the latest data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia's exports grew 27.71 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $13.38 billion from the same month one year earlier, the fastest pace of export value growth since September 2011 and also exceeding analysts' estimates. This export growth was particularly attributed to higher prices of coal and crude palm oil (CPO).

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) informed that both the nation's exports and imports rose for a third straight month (on a year-on-year basis) in December 2016. However, the growth pace slowed compared to the preceding month. Indonesia's exports climbed 15.6 percent (y/y) to USD $13.77 billion in the last month of 2016, slightly exceeding expectations and touching the highest export earnings of the past 24 months. Meanwhile, Indonesia's imports climbed 5.8 percent (y/y) to USD $12.78 billion in December 2016, also slightly surpassing expectations.

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The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) believes Indonesia's export performance can grow up to 3.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017 based on the most recent global growth projections. Yose Rizal, Head of the Economics Department within CSIS, said this 3.2 percent growth outlook is a modest one and Indonesia's export performance should actually perform better. In fact, for economic development of Indonesia, Rizal says export growth in the range of (at least) 4 - 5 percent (y/y) is required.

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The Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) proposes two strategies to boost Indonesia's export performance in 2017: (1) seek new export markets and (2) export 'halal' products (which adhere to Islamic law) to the Middle East. Last week Indonesia's Trade Ministry revised down its export target for 2017. The Ministry now expects Indonesia's export performance to grow 5.6 percent (y/y) to USD $136 billion this year (from an estimated USD $129 billion in 2016). The revision makes the nation's export target in line with the slow recovery of international demand.

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The slow recovery of global demand made Indonesia decide to revise down its export growth target for non-oil and gas products in 2017. Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita said the government now targets a 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth in non-oil and gas exports (down from its earlier target of 11.9 percent y/y). This target is regarded as more realistic considering the slow recovery of international demand. To boost export growth in 2017 the government aims to diversify export markets as well as to, simply, export more products to existing export markets.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Thursday (15/12) that the nation's export performance in November 2016 showed a sharp increase. Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, Deputy for Statistics Distribution and Services at BPS, said Indonesia's export growth was "rather spectacular" and gives rise to optimism that global demand and trade have improved. In November Indonesia posted a USD $838 million trade surplus, down from the revised USD $1.24 billion in the preceding month. In all of the first eleven months of 2016, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus.

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Indonesia recorded a USD $1.21 billion trade surplus in October 2016 according to the latest data from the nation's Central Statistics Agency (BPS). In line with expectations both exports and imports rose last month supported by rising commodity prices (hence boosting the country's export performance) and an increase in machinery and electrical appliance imports into Indonesia. Meanwhile, BPS revised September's trade surplus to USD $1.27 billion, from USD $1.22 billion reported last month.

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Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia or BI) announced on Wednesday (15/05/13) that the country's external balance has improved during Q1-2013 as non-oil and gas trade were up. Indonesia's current account deficit stood at USD $5.3 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in Q1-2013, compared to the previous quarter's deficit of USD $7.6 billion (3.5 percent of GDP). Indonesia has experienced a widening trade deficit, although it recorded a trade surplus of USD $304.90 in March, the first trade surplus since September 2012.

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The latest World Bank report of East Asia and the Pacific states that "driven by strong domestic demand, economies of developing East Asia and Pacific continue to be an engine of global growth, growing at 7.5 percent in 2012 - higher than any other region in the world." Amid a recovering global economy the report projects that regional growth will rise to 7.8 percent in 2013 and ease to 7.6 percent in 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.

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Yesterday, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institution, released Indonesia's export and import numbers of February 2013. Indonesia's imports reached US $15.32 billion, while its exports stood at US $14.99 billion. It has thus resulted in the continuation of a trade deficit (US $327.4 million). For Indonesia, which always reported trade surpluses until last year, it is a worrying scenario as the trade deficit and higher inflation put pressure on the IDR rupiah.

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This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.

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The chairman of the Indonesia Coal Mining Association said that Indonesia's coal exports are expected to increase from 310 million tons in 2012 to 330 million tons in 2013, a 6.5 percent increase. Coal producers have been facing a tough period since July 2008 when global coal demand weakened and triggered volatile - but mostly declining - coal prices ever since. Coal demand from China and India, however, is expected to increase this year.

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