Global markets declined for a fifth straight day on Thursday (24/09) on persistent negative sentiments related to sluggish global economic growth, the Volkswagen emission scandal and the continuation of uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its September policy meeting. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.76 percent today, while European and US stocks are deep in the red. Indonesian markets were closed due to Idul Adha celebrations (the Muslim day of sacrifice) and will therefore respond to these developments on Friday (25/09).

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Apart from external factors (China’s weak manufacturing activity and persistent uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates) that plague Indonesian assets today, there are also domestic factors that push Indonesian stocks and the rupiah into the red. These domestic factors include Indonesia’s downgraded economic growth forecasts and the central bank’s downgraded rupiah outlook. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves - used to defend the rupiah - have declined further.

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In line with other Asian markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are weakening heavily on Wednesday (23/09). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah had depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 14,655 per US dollar by 11:08 am local Jakarta time, while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.56 percent to 4,276.43 points by the same time, with the financial sector in particular taking a hit. There are several causes that explain this weak performance today.

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Today (22/09), the Indonesian rupiah extended its weak performance and has passed beyond the level of IDR 14,500 per US dollar. Most Asian currencies continue to fall against the greenback as uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates persists. Although the Federal Reserve decided to postpone a Fed Fund Rate hike at its September policy meeting, markets are still preparing for a hike before the year-end as many Federal Reserve objectives had been met.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that inflation will ease below seven percent year-on-year (y/y) in September 2015 on the back of lower prices of raw foods and lower administered prices (including fuel and electricity) in the post the Ramadan and Idul Fitri period. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank expects inflation at around 6.95 percent (y/y) in September.

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Most Asian markets started weak in the new trading week on persistent uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates after the US Federal Reserve decided to postpone a Fed Fund Rate hike last week. This context raises investors’ appetite for safe haven assets. By 13:45 pm local Jakarta time on Monday (21/09), Indonesia’s rupiah had depreciated 0.66 percent to IDR 14,469 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.22 percent to 4,370.63 points.

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Indonesia’s foreign debt growth slowed in July 2015 by 3.7 percent (y/y) to a total of USD $303.7 billion from a 6.3 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding month. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) the nation’s total external debt consisted of USD $134.5 billion public sector foreign debt and USD $169.2 billion private sector foreign debt. Both public and private sector foreign debt growth slowed in July (compared to June) as these sectors were hesitant to take on more debt due to the depreciating rupiah.

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After the Federal Reserve announced that it kept its key interest rate at the historically low level of 0.0-0.25 percent at the September policy meeting, most of Asia’s emerging market stocks were up on relief that their currencies are not to depreciate heavily (yet) due to the looming rate hike. Yesterday (17/09), the US central bank said it postponed further monetary tightening due to weakness in the global economy, unsettled financial markets, and low US inflation. However, a Fed Fund Rate hike is still likely to occur before the year-end.

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In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for a seven consecutive month in September’s Board of Governor’s meeting (17/09) as it aims to stabilize the rupiah amid global volatility caused by looming higher US interest rates and China’s hard landing (as well as yuan depreciation), while combating inflation which stood at 7.18 percent (y/y) in August. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were left unchanged at 5.5 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

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Morgan Stanley Investment Management, a leading global investment firm, said it now considers Indonesia’s rupiah and Malaysia ringgit as the most attractive emerging-market currencies. Both currencies have been the worst-performing Asian currencies against the US dollar this year amid looming tighter monetary policy in the USA, low commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown (as well as a political scandal in Malaysia). The ringgit has depreciated 21 percent, while the rupiah has weakened 16.2 percent against the US dollar since the start of the year. Both currencies are touching 17-year lows.

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Despite the fact that foreign investors continued to record net selling (IDR 216.9 billion) and despite mostly declining stock indices in Southeast Asia, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.19 percent to 4,922.59 points on Tuesday’s trading day (14/10). The IHSG was particularly supported by rising consumer and manufacturing stocks. Indonesian stocks were also supported by the appreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the lower pace of economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a major concern for Indonesia as it leads to declining demand for commodities (and thus places downward pressure on commodity prices). As Indonesia is a major commodity exporter - such as coal, crude palm oil, nickel ore and tin - the country feels the impact of weak global demand for commodities. About 60 percent of Indonesia’s exports are commodities, mostly raw ones.

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Indonesian stocks tumbled at the first trading day of the week as investors are still concerned about the condition of the global economy. Declining stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week had a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG). The IHSG fell 1.01 percent to 4,913.05, its lowest level since 4 July 2014, on Monday (13/10). Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 595 billion (USD $49.6 million).

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In line with the volatile performance of global stocks, led by indices on Wall Street, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or abbreviated IHSG) showed a volatile performance over the past week. US stocks mostly declined - except for the sharp rebound on Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes signalled no higher US interest rates anytime soon - on concerns about the global economy (particularly the Eurozone), looming higher US interest rates, and the appreciating US dollar (hurting US exports).

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It was a relief for investors to learn that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) rebounded on Thursday (09/10) after having experienced a sharp decline on the previous day. The IHSG was supported by rising Asian stocks after indices on Wall Street had surged on Wednesday (08/10). Wall Street was up as minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting signalled that US interest rates will remain low 'for a while'. Another positive factor was that today’s appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) took another dive on Wednesday (08/10). The decline was not only caused by the negative influence of declining stock indices in the USA and Europe on the previous day, triggered by the downgraded global economic growth forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but also because the market responded negatively to the voting result for the post of speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR).

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.

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Amid political uncertainty and a looming increase in US interest rates, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate weakened considerably in the past week. Market participants are increasingly concerned about the situation in Indonesia’s parliament where a majority of political parties - named the Merah-Putih coalition (led by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto) - is expected to undermine president-elect Joko Widodo’s reform programs as well as the democratic foundations of the country.

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