It is expected to be another difficult day for Indonesian stocks and the rupiah as there are few to none positive market sentiments that can support these assets on today’s trading day. Wall Street closed lower on Thursday (23/07) for the third consecutive day on disappointing financial results of several big companies, dragging down indices in the East. Commodity indices continue to fall (oil returning to bear market on resilient US output and rising OPEC supply). Meanwhile, sharp rupiah depreciation makes investors nervous.

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Again, Indonesia’s rupiah is touching the IDR 13,400 per US dollar psychological boundary. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,405 per US dollar at 11:22 am local Jakarta time on Thursday (23/07), a level last seen when the country was still plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998. Crossing the psychological boundary could mean Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) will intervene again to support the currency in order to safeguard people’s confidence in the currency.

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According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate on Monday (20/07). Indonesia’s currency weakened 0.31 percent to IDR 13,395 per US dollar, its weakest level since 1998 when the country was plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia’s activities are still limited until Wednesday (22/07) due to a public holiday (Idul Fitri celebrations), implying that the central bank temporarily doesn't publish its Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (abbreviated: JISDOR).

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Indonesia recorded a USD $477 million trade surplus in June 2015, the country’s seventh consecutive trade surplus. However, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released on Wednesday (14/07), Indonesia’s June exports fell 12.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.4 billion, while imports fell 17.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.9 billion. These figures show that Indonesia’s trade surplus is primarily caused by weak domestic demand "outperforming" weak global demand, hence raising concerns about global and domestic economic growth.

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As expected Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) refrained from adjusting its interest rate regime at Tuesday’s Board of Governor’s meeting (14/07). The key BI rate was kept at 7.50 percent, while the overnight deposit rate (Fasbi) and lending facility rate were left at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia believes that the current interest rate environment is in line with its efforts to bring down inflation while supporting Indonesia’s ailing rupiah ahead of expected further monetary tightening in the USA later this year.

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In line with the global trend, Indonesian stocks extended their gains on Tuesday morning (14/07). Most stock indices (across the globe) continue to move in green territory after debt-ridden Greece and its international creditors agreed - after a 17-hour long emergency meeting - to an austerity package that will keep Greece within the Eurozone. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) had risen 0.60 percent to 4,923.36 points by 11:45 am local Jakarta time on Tuesday.

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Most analysts agree that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will leave its interest rate regime unchanged at the Board of Governors’ Meeting that is scheduled for Tuesday 14 July 2015. Indonesia’s central bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent as the country’s inflation rate has recently accelerated while the rupiah has been under pressure due to external factors.

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Indonesian coffee shipments to Europe have risen on the back of the weak rupiah and larger coffee harvest. Robusta bean exports from the island of Sumatra grew 22.1 percent year-on-year in June 2015. Meanwhile, European traders expect these strong shipments to continue into July. The Indonesian rupiah is the worst-performing emerging currency in Asia tracked by Bloomberg, weakening about 7.2 percent against the US dollar so far this year. The positive side of a weak currency is that the country's exports become more attractive.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), predicts that the current economic turmoil in the Eurozone, caused by the Greek debt crisis, will impact on the stability of developing countries, including Indonesia. Although in terms of both trade and investment there should not be a real impact originating from Greek turmoil, the perception of macroeconomic stability will be somewhat hit on the back of global uncertainty. In line with most markets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday (06/07).

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The Indonesian government revised its 2015 economic growth target. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, stated on Friday (03/07) that the government’s previous target was unrealistically high at 5.8 percent (y/y) given the sluggish international and domestic economic context. The government revised down the GDP growth target of 2015 to 5.2 percent (y/y). Djalil said that the global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent (y/y) in 2015 from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent (y/y).

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It was a relief for investors to learn that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) rebounded on Thursday (09/10) after having experienced a sharp decline on the previous day. The IHSG was supported by rising Asian stocks after indices on Wall Street had surged on Wednesday (08/10). Wall Street was up as minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting signalled that US interest rates will remain low 'for a while'. Another positive factor was that today’s appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) took another dive on Wednesday (08/10). The decline was not only caused by the negative influence of declining stock indices in the USA and Europe on the previous day, triggered by the downgraded global economic growth forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but also because the market responded negatively to the voting result for the post of speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR).

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Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.

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Amid political uncertainty and a looming increase in US interest rates, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate weakened considerably in the past week. Market participants are increasingly concerned about the situation in Indonesia’s parliament where a majority of political parties - named the Merah-Putih coalition (led by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto) - is expected to undermine president-elect Joko Widodo’s reform programs as well as the democratic foundations of the country.

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Indonesian stocks plunged considerably on Thursday (02/10). The country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 2.73 percent to 5,000.81 points, the largest drop in almost six months. This poor performance was caused by both external and internal factors. Externally, various weak economic data from the USA and Europe as well as an appreciating yen impacted negatively on Asian stock indices. Internally, market participants responded negatively toward the inauguration of the new parliament.

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Although Indonesia’s September 2014 inflation (0.27 percent m/m) and appreciating rupiah exchange rate had a positive impact on the performance of Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) on Wednesday (01/10), its gain was limited by declining indices on Wall Street on the previous day as well as Indonesia’s August trade deficit (USD $318.1 million), which resulted in foreign net selling of worth IDR 388 billion of Indonesian stocks. The IHSG climbed 0.06 percent to 5,140.91 points.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.18 percent to 5,142.01 points on Monday (29/09) despite the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Possibly market participants took advantage of relatively cheap blue chip stocks after the 1.3 percent drop on Friday (26/09) caused by negative market sentiments brought about by the parliament’s passing of a bill which abolishes direct voting of regional leaders. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 542.4 billion.

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In line with the trend on other Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell on Monday (22/09) amid profit taking after three days of gains. Not even the appreciating rupiah exchange rate and net buying of foreign investors (IDR 26.6 billion) were able to push Indonesia’s index into the green zone. The IHSG declined 0.15 percent to 5,219.80 points. All sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) fell except for the consumer goods and finance sectors.

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