The Standard Chartered Bank expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate slightly in 2015 compared to this year’s estimated performance. The bank forecasts a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) next year, up from 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014. Standard Chartered Bank economist Eric Sugandi recently said that the Indonesian economy will be affected by two factors: the great rotation (capital outflows from emerging markets ahead of US interest rate hikes) and growth disparity (slowing growth or recession in China and Japan).

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In its latest report entitled ‘Growth Hesitates in Developing Asia’ (which is a supplement to the ‘Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update’), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) slightly downgraded economic growth in developing Asia to 6.1 percent (y/y) in 2014 from its September estimate of 6.2 percent (y/y). Despite slowing momentum the ADB believes that current low oil prices constitute a great opportunity for Asian countries to conduct structural reforms as many of these countries are net oil importers.

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On Monday morning (08/12), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate quickly plunged after the release of weak macroeconomic data from Japan and China, two important trading partners of Indonesia. Economic growth in Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, contracted 0.5 percent (quarter-to-quarter) in Q3-2014, while Chinese imports fell 6.7 percent (year-on-year) in November 2014. As a result the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 12,365 per US dollar by 11:30 am local Jakarta time, the weakest level in six years.

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Indonesia’s Finance Minister has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the context of Indonesia’s participation within the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The AIIB is a new multilateral international financial institution (initiated by China) that is to provide funds for infrastructure projects in the Asia Pacific region. This new institution is seen as a challenge to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) which are all regarded as being dominated by developed countries.

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Irvan Kamal Hakim, Director at Krakatau Steel (Indonesia’s largest steel manufacturer), said that the domestic steel industry is still affected by prolonged concerns about excess steel supply in China, the world's largest steel producer. Amid slowing economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy, domestic steel demand in China has declined resulting in a global oversupply of 525 million tons. Each 1 percent decline in GDP growth in China results in an additional oversupply of 24 million tons of steel.

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Exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives increased 45.8 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.47 million metric tons in October 2014 primarily supported by the zero export tariff that was implemented by the Indonesian government per 1 October. Indonesia has a mechanism that when the average CPO price (which is calculated using international and local CPO prices) drop below USD $750 per metric ton, the export tax is scrapped. In early September, Malaysia had already implemented a zero CPO export tax.

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Statistics Indonesia announced on Wednesday (05/11) that economic growth in Indonesia reached 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014. This result was slightly below analysts’ forecasts and implies that the slowing trend of economic expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continues. Since 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been declining amid global and domestic developments. The 5.01 percentage point GDP growth in Q3-2014 was the slowest quarterly growth pace in five years.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) producers have released good corporate earnings over the first nine months of 2014. Below, we have presented an overview of those CPO producers, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, that have already released their financial results. Combined, these eleven companies recorded net profit growth of 155.3 percent year-on-year (y/y). The main reason for this improved performance was the 24 percent (average) increase in global CPO prices as the commodity gained popularity as an energy source.

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Economic growth in Indonesia is expected to continue to slow in the third quarter of 2014 according to the country’s central bank. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo said on Thursday (30/10) that the institution believes gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Southeast Asia’s largest economy to reach 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q3-2014, similar to the GDP growth result in the previous quarter (5.12 percent, y/y). Main reason for this slowing pace is the sluggish global economy and particularly the case of China.

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Contrary to most other (agricultural) commodities, the global price of cocoa has increased in the second half of 2014. While prices of commodities such as oil, soybeans, corn and wheat have eased due to robust global supply, and others - such as cotton - have eased amid lower global demand, the price of cocoa has been rising steadily. Despite a weak start in 2014, the cocoa price has grown over 10 percent (after having rallied around 25 percent in 2013). Main reason for this performance is the world’s rising cocoa demand.

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After most European and American stock indices had been positive for a couple of days in a row, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) finally found its way up again. On Wednesday (10/07), the index rose 1.70 percent to 4,478.64 points. Moreover, on the previous day, Asian stock indices had shown a good performance and this convinced investors to buy Indonesian assets (which have fallen considerably recently) the next day. Despite foreigners still being net sellers of Indonesian stocks, a number of big cap stocks rose sharply.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) fell 3.68 percent to 4,433.63 on Monday's trading day (08/07). This current level is the lowest level of the IHSG since 26 June 2013. Of the 473 listed companies, 263 were down, 21 were up and the remainder did not move. Most Asian indices fell due to concerns about China's credit crisis that may impact on the country's economic growth and that the positive US employment report will affect continuation of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6 percent.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) took another large blow on Wednesday (03/07). The index fell 3.20 percent to 4,577.15 points as investors were worried after reading the revised outlook of the World Bank. The institution downgraded its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 from 6.2 percent to 5.9 percent. Higher inflation, because of the recent subsidized fuel price hike, is expected to result in lower domestic consumption. The IDR rupiah posted a slight weakening to IDR 9,941.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) fell 0.86 percent to 4,777.45 on Monday (01/07) as eight of the nine sectoral indices weakened. Only Indonesia's finance index managed to post an upward movement. Several big cap stocks ended the trading day with large losses, such as Unilever Indonesia (-3.90%) or Telekomunikasi Indonesia (-3.11%). The consumption sector was one of the worst performing sectors in Indonesia yesterday as can be seen in Indofood Sukses Makmur's shares, which fell 6.80 percent.

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It has been a long time since we have reported a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). But finally on Wednesday (26/06) Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) made a great jump upwards, supported by American and European stock indices that were up on Tuesday (25/06) due to positive economic data from the United States. Investors used this positive context to engage in stock trading. Moreover, Indonesia's stocks are currently - technically speaking - cheap and thus attractive.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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Apparently the stormy and dark clouds above the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are still present. Most foreign investors continued to sell their Indonesian assets, resulting in another day of losses for the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG). Not even clarity about the price hike of subsidized fuel could ease investors' minds (fuel prices were increased last Saturday after months of speculation). For the last two weeks negative sentiments have coloured the stock exchange and profit taking has been the result.

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On Friday's trading day (21/06), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was still under the spell of the unrest that emerged because of Ben Bernanke's announcement of a possible stop to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program in 2014. Moreover, weak manufacturing data from China also continued to cause negative market sentiments. The IHSG fell 2.48 percent to 4,515.37, its lowest closing since 11 February 2013. Foreign investors sold about USD $228 million more stocks than they bought.

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Concerns about an ending to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program and falling industrial activity in China as well as China's credit crisis made many investors decide to sell assets on stock markets around the world on Thursday (20/06). Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was just one of the many victims of this global unrest. The index weakened 3.68 percent to 4,629.99 points as foreign investors mostly sold their Indonesian assets, resulting in significant lowered share prices of Indonesia's big cap companies.

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Despite mixed Asian stock indices because of negative news from China and Japan, certainty about the increase in the price of Indonesia’s subsidized fuel after the plenary meeting of the House of Representatives (DPR) on Monday (17/06) formed a pillar of support for Indonesia’s main stock index (IHSG) on Tuesday’s trading day (18/06). Investors took the opportunity to buy stocks, particularly Indonesia’s big cap stocks, after these had experienced significant falls last week due to profit taking actions amid an uncertain market.

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