Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's current account deficit, the broadest measure of international transactions, may widen in the second quarter of 2014 as many local companies engage in business expansion. Such expansion usually triggers an increased amount of imports, thus impacting on the trade balance. A widening current account deficit in the second quarter of the year is a normal trend. The balance usually improves in the third and fourth quarters.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, expects that the country’s trade balance will post a surplus of around USD $600 million in April 2014, roughly similar to the surplus that was recorded one month earlier (USD $673 million). The April 2014 surplus would be supported by an improvement in non-oil & gas exports, stable commodity prices (particularly coal and crude palm oil/CPO), as well as the waning influence of the Minerba Act.

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The Residential Property Price Survey still indicates slowing growth of Indonesian residential property prices (in the primary market) in the first quarter of 2014. The Residential Property Price Index grew 1.45 percent (quarter to quarter) in the first quarter of 2014 or 7.92 percent year-on-year, lower than the growth that was recorded in the previous quarter of 1.77 percent (qtq) or 11.51 percent (yoy). The slowdown occurred in all types of homes, but in particular the medium and large homes segment.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the improving trend of the current account deficit continued in the first quarter (January-March) of 2014. The current account deficit fell from USD $4.3 billion, equivalent to 2.12 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 to USD $4.2 billion (2.06 percent of GDP) in Q1-2014. This improvement was brought about due to a decrease in imports of goods and the narrowing deficits in the services and income accounts.

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At the Board of Governors Meeting (08/05), Bank Indonesia decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) at 7.50 percent, the Lending Facility at 7.50 percent and the Deposit Facility at 5.75 percent. Bank Indonesia considers this monetary policy consistent with efforts to direct inflation back to its target level of 4.5 ± 1 percent in 2014 and 4.0 ± 1 percent in 2015, as well as to further ease the country's current account deficit to a more sustainable level. On Friday, Bank Indonesia is expected to release current account data covering Q1-2014.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent depreciating trend on Thursday (08/05). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.36 percent to IDR 11,619 per US dollar at 13:30 local Jakarta time. Apart from market participants' wait and see attitude ahead of results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors Meeting, which is held today and will inform whether the current benchmark interest rate of 7.50 percent will be maintained, increased concerns about exports to China also put pressure on the rupiah.

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The foreign exchange reserves at the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) increased about USD $3 billion to USD $105.6 billion at the end of April 2014, the highest level in 15 months, particularly due to export earnings of government-owned oil and gas exporters. Bank Indonesia said that the current position of forex reserves is equivalent to 6.1 months of imports or 5.9 months of imports and servicing external debt (well above the international standard of three months of imports). Today, the central bank's Board of Governors Meeting is held.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released its '2013 Economic Report on Indonesia' earlier this week. This report discusses in great detail both global and domestic economic dynamics as well as policy responses. The year 2013 was a year full of challenges for the Indonesian economy because of changes in global economic conditions (US Federal Reserve tapering), requiring a range of structural policy changes to steer the economy of Indonesia towards a more balanced growth and restored macroeconomic stability.

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Indonesia’s external debt in February 2014 amounted to USD $272.1 billion, thus having increased 7.4 percent (year-on-year) from the same month a year earlier. Outstanding external debt as of end-February 2014 consisted of public sector debt (USD $129.0 billion) and private sector debt (USD $143.1 billion). The growth pace of Indonesia's external debt in February 2014 was slightly higher than the 7.2 percent (yoy) growth pace recorded in January 2014. These data were taken from Bank Indonesia's website.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said that the country's private debt has increased steadily in recent years. On the one hand this is a good sign as it indicates that the private sector is growing, but on the other hand the lender of last resort warned Indonesian companies to watch over their foreign loans as it can jeopardize the country’s financial stability. Private sector foreign debt doubled between 2009 and 2013, reaching USD $141.4 billion in January 2014. Meanwhile, public debt stood at the level of USD $127.9 billion in the same month.

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Today, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the Board of Governors’ meeting. The lending facility rate and deposit facility rate were maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. An assessment of the economy in 2013 and outlook for 2014-2015 indicated that such policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to help reduce the current account deficit to a sustainable level.

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Indonesian retail sales surged 14 percent in November 2013 from one year earlier (the highest growth rate since July 2013). On a month-to-month basis, Indonesia's retail sales increased 1.5 percent from October 2013. These findings were the result of a survey conducted by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), which surveyed 650 retailers in 10 Indonesian cities. The bank's survey also indicated that Indonesian retailers may increase prices of their products in 2014 in order to compensate for the depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Today (31/12), the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) officially transfers its authority to regulate and supervise the banking sector to the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, abbreviated OJK). Muliaman D. Hadad, Chairman of the Board of the OJK, said that all functions, duties as well as powers of regulation and banking supervision, licensing, inspection, investigation and consumer protection have been transferred to the 35 (regional) offices of the OJK.

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Indonesia’s external debt growth continued to slow in October 2013. Debt grew 5.8 percent (yoy) to USD $262.4 billion compared to 8.6 percent (yoy) growth in the previous month. Slowing growth in external debt occurred both in the public and private sector. Public sector external debt position at the end of October 2013 grew 0.5 percent (yoy) to USD $125.8 billion compared to 2.1 percent (yoy) in September. Meanwhile, private sector external debt grew steadily at 11.1 percent (yoy) to USD $136.6 billion as compared to the previous month.

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On Thursday 12 December 2013, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) remains unchanged at the level of 7.50 percent in December 2013. This announcement was a bit surprizing as about 80 percent of analysts expected Bank Indonesia to raise the BI rate in order to support the depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. Starting the year at IDR 9,670 per US dollar, the rupiah has fallen around 25 percent to IDR 12,081 per US dollar.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.

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In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.

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With slowing economic growth and a stricter monetary policy approach of the central bank, Indonesia's ceramic industry is expected to record slowing growth in 2014. This year, the country's ceramic sales are projected to amount to 400 million square meters (m²). About 12 percent of this amount is exported to countries abroad. However, in 2014, sales are expected to plunge by 5 to 10% to 360-380 million m². A weakening rupiah and slowing property sector, which accounts for significant ceramic demand, are the major causes of the decline.

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Both the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index) and the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate are under pressure this morning as market participants are waiting for results of the central bank's Board of Governor's meeting that is held today (12/12) in Jakarta. Speculation has emerged that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) one more time in 2013 in order to combat the country's current account deficit as well as mitigate the impact of a possible winding down of QE3.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was kept at the level of 7.5 percent (in line with market expectation) today (12/12), it was not able to support the country's stock index. Indonesia's IHSG index fell 1.39 percent to 4,212.22 points. The index was negatively impacted by Asian stock indices that were down due to concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. This made investors' positive reaction to the BI rate of temporary nature. Weak openings in Europe increased downward pressure.

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