Although influence of the devaluation of China’s yuan has eased, the Indonesian rupiah remains under pressure as investors are waiting for results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governor’s meeting (to be held later today), low oil (and other commodity) prices, while the US dollar appreciates against most other currencies amid mixed US macroeconomic data. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.12 percent to IDR 13,838 per US dollar by 10:30 am local Jakarta time on Tuesday (18/08).

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On 16 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic and political subjects such as the cabinet reshuffle, the 2016 State Budget draft, the current account balance, an analysis of the recent performance of the rupiah and Indonesian stocks, the coal industry, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (14/08) that the country’s current account deficit narrowed to USD $4.48 billion, or 2.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the second quarter of 2015. In the same quarter last year the deficit stood at USD $9.59 billion). As such, the current account deficit (CAD) has become more sustainable and this may provide some support for the rupiah which is currently facing tough times (ahead of a looming US interest rate and China’s yuan devaluation).

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Today (14/08) the central bank of China let the yuan appreciate 0.05 percent against the US dollar, effectively ending three consecutive days of devaluation. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) also pledged to safeguard a stable yuan after the sharp devaluation had triggered significant volatility on international financial markets. For example, Indonesian assets (stocks and the rupiah) tumbled severely on Tuesday and Wednesday amid yuan devaluation (and looming higher interest rates in the USA).

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For the third straight day China allowed its currency to weaken against the US dollar. On Thursday (13/08) the yuan depreciated 0.7 percent against the greenback, signalling that China’s central bank may let the yuan weaken further in a controlled manner. Yesterday, just before trading closed, it actually intervened to support the currency as the yuan depreciated nearly two percent (the daily limit). The move of China to devalue the yuan is a step toward liberalization and also boosts the country’s sluggish export performance.

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The fall of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah on Wednesday (12/08) is much more severe than had previously been expected. By 11:14 am local Jakarta time, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 3.12 percent to 4,478.56 points, while the rupiah had depreciated 1.75 percent to IDR 13,845 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Across Asia, emerging markets are badly affected (for a second straight day) by China’s decision to devalue its yuan. The yuan is now at its weakest level since October 2012.

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Indonesian stocks are experiencing a remarkable fall on Tuesday (11/08). In the first trading session, the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) plunged 2.15 percent to 4,646.95, its lowest level since early March 2014 and leading declines among Southeast Asian stock indices. Stocks in Asia have been hit by China’s decision to allow its currency to weaken against the US dollar (the yuan fell 1.6 percent against the US dollar after the move dragging down other Asian currencies including the Indonesian rupiah).

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The Indonesian rupiah continues to depreciate on Tuesday (11/08). By 11:16 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had depreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,570 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Indonesia’s currency has been touching 17-year lows due to bullish US dollar momentum ahead of looming higher US interest rates. Today, the US dollar received additional strength as China allowed its currency to weaken to a three-year low, dragging down other currencies in the Asian region.

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Stock markets in Asia are mixed on Monday (10/08) with Indonesian stocks heading downwards. In the first trading session, Indonesia’s benchmark stock market (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.99 percent to 4,723.19 points on weak trade data from China and positive labor data from the USA. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s rupiah is moving sideways. At 13:12 pm local Jakarta time, the rupiah was still at IDR 13,541 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, unchanged since the opening this morning.

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On 9 August 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as an analysis of the recent performance of the rupiah, an analysis of Q2-2015 GDP growth, updates on inflation as well as manufacturing, and unemployment in Indonesia.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 0.14 percent to 5,198.90 points on the last trading day of the week, the first day of decline in five trading days, as investors engaged in profit taking after Indonesia’s Constitutional Court confirmed the official election result of the General Elections Commission (KPU) that announced Joko Widodo as winner of the July 2014 presidential election. Next week investors may continue profit taking as the index is still overbought.

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Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed 0.31 percent to 5,206.14 points on Thursday's trading (21/08) on speculation that Indonesia’s Constitutional Court will reject defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the official July 2014 presidential result is illegal due to massive violations. Although the Court is still reading out the verdict, it has already indicated that evidence for violations is incomplete and unconvincing. Therefore, a Court decision that calls for revoting has become unlikely.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced two important matters on Thursday (14/08). Firstly, the institution decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.75 percent, and the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent. Secondly, it announced that Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $9.1 billion, or, 4.27 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2014, a widening that is larger than initially forecast.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 11,758 per US dollar on Monday (04/08) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index by 15:40 pm local Jakarta time. Although the rupiah had appreciated to a stronger level (IDR 11,713) earlier on Monday, the currency slightly rebounded after Statistics Indonesia announced that the country posted a USD $300 million trade deficit in June 2014, thereby placing more pressure on the nation’s current account balance.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate showed great volatility on Tuesday’s trading day (22/07). In the first part of the day the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) and rupiah strengthened on speculation that market favourite Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would win the presidential election without riots or other incidents that could trigger political uncertainties. On Tuesday evening, the General Elections Commission (KPU) indeed officially declared Jokowi the winner of the election.

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One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks posted a good performance on Monday (21/07). Main reason for this positive performance is increased speculation that presidential hopeful Joko Widodo has won the election. Based on information originating from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Widodo has won the election by a safe margin of five percentage points. On Tuesday 22 July 2014, the KPU will officially release the result. However, rival Prabowo Subianto will probably challenge the result.

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Despite China’s positive economic growth of 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014, most Asian stock indices were down. Only Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) managed to show a slight gain as large cap stocks were sought after. The HSI impacted positively on the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Wednesday (16/07) which climbed 0.85 percent to 5,113.93 points on Wednesday (16/07). Foreign investors recorded net buying.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.33 percent to IDR 11,698 per US dollar on Wednesday (16/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Although at the start of the trading day the rupiah weakened due to commentary of Federal Reserve Head Janet Yellen who said that US interest rates may increase sooner than expected provided that the US job market improves faster than anticipated, at the end of the trading day Indonesia's currency strengthened on improved economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.

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