Per 14 November 2013, 24 Indonesian provinces have confirmed their new provincial minimum wage for the year 2014. As Indonesia numbers 34 provinces in total, 10 more provinces are expected to announce their new minimum wages soon. It is interesting to note that of the 24 provinces that have already published the new minimum wage, 11 provinces have set the minimum wage below the assumed need for decent living in the province, which implies that the minimum wage is not enough to finance a person's minimum monthly basic needs.

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Concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (known as quantitative easing or QE3) in combination with the deteriorating domestic economy of Indonesia has caused Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to plunge 1.95 percent in the first trading session of 13 November 2013. The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 11,600 according to Bloomberg. These developments happen one day after the decision of Indonesia's central bank to raise the BI rate to 7.50 percent.

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The government of Indonesia aims to reduce the country's poverty rate to between 6.5 and 8.0 percent by 2019. The government, through its Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas), is currently busy finalizing the targets of the National Medium-Term Development Plan 2015-2019 (RPJMN 2015-2019). This RPJMN is the third phase of implementation of the National Long-Term Development Plan 2005-2025 (RPJPN 2005-2025) which forms the basis for ministries and government agencies when formulating their policies.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), stated that the country's economy is expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2013. Bank Indonesia believes GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 to fall below the growth figure realized in Q3-2013 (5.62 percent). Martowardojo said that the government needs to continue measures to improve the country's exports, while trying to curtail imports of oil and gas as domestic demand for fuels remained high, even after the increase in prices of subsidized fuels in June 2013.

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Today (06/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012. The result implies the continuation of Indonesia's slowing economic growth as Q3-2013 constitutes the fifth consecutive quarter in which the country recorded slowing economic growth. Previously, the government had already expressed its concern about the GDP growth figure in Q3-2013 because the current high inflation rate curbs household consumption.

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Indonesia continues to top the ranking of countries with the highest consumer confidence in the third quarter of 2013 although its score fell four points from the second quarter to 120. According to the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, consumers in Indonesia are optimistic due to the general elections in mid-2014 and growth of the country's middle class. However, as inflation surged after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in June, the score fell slightly.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) sees a continued easing trend in inflationary pressures in October 2013. Indonesia's inflation in October 2013 was recorded at 0.09 percent (month-to-month), thus confirming the indication that monthly inflation is back to its normal pattern in the last five years. However, the annual inflation pace is still high at 8.32 percent (yoy). Limited inflation in October was influenced by deflation of the food group component (0.80 percent mtm), although commodity prices rose (especially red chili).

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After two days of demonstrations by tens of thousands of Indonesian workers, the Governor of Jakarta (Joko Widodo) raised the capital's minimum wage to IDR 2.4 million (USD $213) per month. The new minimum wage, proposed by the Jakarta Wage Council, will be implemented in 2014 and constitutes a 10% increase from the current minimum wage of IDR 2.2 million. The workers, however, had demanded for a minimum wage of IDR 3.7 million causing various institutions and analysts to express concerns about the impact on the investment climate.

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Inflation in October 2013 was recorded at 0.09%. This low inflation rate was mainly supported by easing food and clothes prices. The foodstuffs component in the basket recorded deflation of 0.34 percent, while clothes posted deflation of 0.56 percent. These details were presented by Suryamin, Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on Friday (01/11). The 0.09 percent October inflation rate is low compared to past results in the same month with the notable exception of October 2011 when 0.12 percent of deflation was recorded.

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On Monday (28/10), another large-scale demonstration took place in the center of Jakarta, Indonesia's capital city. The workers that participated in the strike demanded a new minimum wage for Jakarta's provincial government due to the country's recent high inflation rate after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in June 2013, thus curbing people's purchasing power. The workers demand for the new minimum wage of IDR 3.7 million (USD $327) per month. However, these developments can hurt the investment climate in Indonesia.

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On Thursday 14 November 2013, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), delivered his end-of-the-year speech at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner. The meeting was attended by leaders from Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), economic ministers, leaders of the country's banking industry and business community, non-ministerial government agencies as well as a number of international institutions, thus representing a strategic forum in terms of the national economy.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).

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Five more new public listings are expected on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the remainder of 2013 despite the current less rosy macroeconomic environment in Indonesia. The companies that are expected to conduct their initial public offering (IPO) are Indomobil Multi Jasa, Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo, Blue Bird, Soechi Lines, and Sawit Sumbermas Sarana. So far this year, 26 Indonesian companies went public on the IDX. At the start of the year, the IDX targeted for at least 30 new listings in 2013.

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Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) started Tuesday's trading day (12/11) slightly in the red. However, after the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced to have raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 bps to 7.50 percent, the IHSG quickly plunged. The interest rate hike is considered as a sign that Bank Indonesia is still concerned about the nation's macroeconomy, particularly Indonesia high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013). The index fell 1.38 percent to 4,380.64 points.

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Bank Indonesia decided to raise the BI rate by 25 bps to the level of 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate raised to 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy was taken in light of the persistently large current account deficit amid widespread global uncertainty. Therefore, the decision was taken in order to ensure that the current account deficit is reduced to a more sound level and inflation in 2014 returns to around 4.5±1 percent, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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Indonesia will most likely not meet its original GDP growth target of 6.3 percent (stipulated in the 2013 State Budget). Yesterday (06/11), it was announced by Statistics Indonesia that Indonesia’s GDP growth figure in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at 5.62 percent (year-on-year, yoy), the weakest quarterly growth figure since 2009 when the global financial crisis impacted on Southeast Asia’s largest economy. In 2013, Indonesia feels the global impact again, in combination with domestic factors.

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Last week, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) weakened. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia was affected by negative market sentiments brought on by domestic factors. Most importantly, the large-scale demonstrations across Indonesia by Indonesian workers who demanded for higher minimum wages as annual inflation has surged since June 2013 after prices of subsidized fuels were raised. These demands, however, jeopardize the attractiveness of Indonesia's investment climate.

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