After Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech late last week, markets are increasingly expecting to see a US interest rate hike this month. In her speech in Chicago on Friday (03/03), Yellen said the Fed will adjust its monetary policy (specifically the fed funds rate) in case US employment and inflation continue to evolve in line with the Fed's expectations. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017 and therefore it is believed only disastrous US labor market data can block an interest rate hike this month.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Sales of steel in Indonesia are expected to grow 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 15 million tons in 2017, from an estimated 14 million tons of steel sales this year. This growth is attributed to rising infrastructure development in Indonesia and the lower gas price (which is expected to be a reason for the nation's steel manufacturers to boost output). Purwono Widodo, Director for International Relations of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISIA), said steel sales in Indonesia fell in 2015 but rebounded in 2016.

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Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) - a monthly price that is set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - continued its impressive rally. In December 2016 the HBA was set at USD $101.69 per metric ton, up nearly 20 percent from the HBA in the preceding month. It is now at its highest level since May 2012. Moreover, price growth between November and December was the steepest monthly rise ever in the history of the HBA.

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Steel consumption in Indonesia is expected to rise to 13-14 million tons in 2016, from 11.3 million tons in the preceding year. Growth is supported by infrastructure development in Indonesia. Data from the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) shows that steel consumption in Indonesia rose 11 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.4 million tons in the first half of 2016. In fact, many local companies are currently buying steel to fill their warehouses as the steel price tends to be highest in the January-February period.

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Ever since China decided to streamline its coal industry by limiting output (combating the local oversupply), global coal prices have jumped sharply. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) - a monthly price that is set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and is based on domestic and international coal indices - soared 22.9 percent (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton in November 2016 (from USD $69.07 per ton in the preceding month).

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Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, surged further in October 2016. The HBA soared 8.04 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $69.07 per metric ton from USD $63.93 per ton in the preceding month. Indonesia's HBA price is now at its highest level since August 2014. This rally is mainly supported by rising coal demand in China.

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Indonesia is expected to end the prolonged economic slowdown, finally, in 2016. Between 2011 and 2015 the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) continued to slide amid sluggish global growth, tumbling commodity prices and domestic changes (higher interest rate environment in 2013-2015 to combat sharply rising inflation as a result of subsidized fuel price reforms). In 2016 this prolonged slowdown will most likely end. Based on the latest forecasts, the Indonesian economy should expand by around 5.0 percent (y/y) this year, up from a growth pace of 4.7 percent in 2015.

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When the United Kingdom (UK) decided to leave the European Union (the so-called Brexit) through a referendum that was held on 23 June 2016, global markets were in shock. While these markets and the UK economy have recovered from the shock (although the pound remains near a 30-year low and Britain lost its AAA rating implying that the cost of government borrowing becomes higher) there are still some concerns about the (negative) impact of Brexit on emerging market economies in Asia, including Indonesia.

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Although the economy of Indonesia will continue to face challenges in 2017, there are a couple of matters that give rise to optimism about accelerating economic growth. These were the conclusions drawn at the Entrepreneur Networking Forum that was held by Bank Tabungan Negara Pensiunan Nasional in Bandung (West Java) on Wednesday (14/09). Although expectations were recently revised down (due to government budget cuts), Indonesian economic growth is still set to rebound in 2016 after having experienced several years of slowdown.

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After most European and American stock indices had been positive for a couple of days in a row, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) finally found its way up again. On Wednesday (10/07), the index rose 1.70 percent to 4,478.64 points. Moreover, on the previous day, Asian stock indices had shown a good performance and this convinced investors to buy Indonesian assets (which have fallen considerably recently) the next day. Despite foreigners still being net sellers of Indonesian stocks, a number of big cap stocks rose sharply.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) fell 3.68 percent to 4,433.63 on Monday's trading day (08/07). This current level is the lowest level of the IHSG since 26 June 2013. Of the 473 listed companies, 263 were down, 21 were up and the remainder did not move. Most Asian indices fell due to concerns about China's credit crisis that may impact on the country's economic growth and that the positive US employment report will affect continuation of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6 percent.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) took another large blow on Wednesday (03/07). The index fell 3.20 percent to 4,577.15 points as investors were worried after reading the revised outlook of the World Bank. The institution downgraded its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2013 from 6.2 percent to 5.9 percent. Higher inflation, because of the recent subsidized fuel price hike, is expected to result in lower domestic consumption. The IDR rupiah posted a slight weakening to IDR 9,941.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) fell 0.86 percent to 4,777.45 on Monday (01/07) as eight of the nine sectoral indices weakened. Only Indonesia's finance index managed to post an upward movement. Several big cap stocks ended the trading day with large losses, such as Unilever Indonesia (-3.90%) or Telekomunikasi Indonesia (-3.11%). The consumption sector was one of the worst performing sectors in Indonesia yesterday as can be seen in Indofood Sukses Makmur's shares, which fell 6.80 percent.

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It has been a long time since we have reported a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). But finally on Wednesday (26/06) Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) made a great jump upwards, supported by American and European stock indices that were up on Tuesday (25/06) due to positive economic data from the United States. Investors used this positive context to engage in stock trading. Moreover, Indonesia's stocks are currently - technically speaking - cheap and thus attractive.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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Apparently the stormy and dark clouds above the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are still present. Most foreign investors continued to sell their Indonesian assets, resulting in another day of losses for the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG). Not even clarity about the price hike of subsidized fuel could ease investors' minds (fuel prices were increased last Saturday after months of speculation). For the last two weeks negative sentiments have coloured the stock exchange and profit taking has been the result.

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On Friday's trading day (21/06), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was still under the spell of the unrest that emerged because of Ben Bernanke's announcement of a possible stop to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program in 2014. Moreover, weak manufacturing data from China also continued to cause negative market sentiments. The IHSG fell 2.48 percent to 4,515.37, its lowest closing since 11 February 2013. Foreign investors sold about USD $228 million more stocks than they bought.

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Concerns about an ending to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program and falling industrial activity in China as well as China's credit crisis made many investors decide to sell assets on stock markets around the world on Thursday (20/06). Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was just one of the many victims of this global unrest. The index weakened 3.68 percent to 4,629.99 points as foreign investors mostly sold their Indonesian assets, resulting in significant lowered share prices of Indonesia's big cap companies.

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Despite mixed Asian stock indices because of negative news from China and Japan, certainty about the increase in the price of Indonesia’s subsidized fuel after the plenary meeting of the House of Representatives (DPR) on Monday (17/06) formed a pillar of support for Indonesia’s main stock index (IHSG) on Tuesday’s trading day (18/06). Investors took the opportunity to buy stocks, particularly Indonesia’s big cap stocks, after these had experienced significant falls last week due to profit taking actions amid an uncertain market.

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