On 25 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fifth stimulus package, Indonesia's tourism and automotive industries, Bank Indonesia's inflation forecast, a stock & rupiah update, the latest World Bank report, commodity updates, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see a sharp slowdown in inflation in the last couple of months of 2015. Currently, the annual inflation pace stands at 6.83 percent (y/y). However, by the year-end Bank Indonesia estimates the consumer price index to have eased to 3.6 percent (y/y), which would be in the lower range of its 2015 inflation target (3-5 percent y/y). This update was given by Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo when meeting the Financial Sector Stability Coordination Forum (FKSSK).

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Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline in September 2015. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), a total of 92,478 vehicles were sold in Southeast Asia's largest economy in September, down 9.8 percent from sales in the same month last year. Indonesian car sales have been slowing since the all-time sales peak in 2013 amid the country's easing economic growth pace (triggering weaker purchasing power).

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On 4 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government and Bank Indonesia’s new economic policy package, an update of inflation and manufacturing activity, US interest rates the impact of El Nino on coffee and palm oil production, and much more.

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The government of Indonesia may cut fuel prices in the fourth quarter of 2015 in an effort to boost people's purchasing power and reduce costs for local manufacturers. The move would be part of the government's stimulus package that is expected to be announced next week. On 9 and 29 September the Indonesian government had already unveiled the first two installments of the policy package. Contrary to the first two installments, the third one should bear fruit on the short-term.

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Indonesia experienced deflation, with consumer prices falling by 0.05 percent (month-on-month), in September 2015 on the back of lower food and transportation prices. Examples of lower food prices include chicken meat, eggs, chili peppers, onions and cooking oil. Regarding lower transportation costs it was particularly lower air transport tariffs that contributed to deflation. On an annual basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 6.83 percent in September, down from 7.18 (y/y) in the preceding month, and below analysts' estimates at 7.0 (y/y).

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On 27 September 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as Bank Indonesia’s new policy package, GDP growth, geothermal development, a stocks & rupiah update, September inflation, and much more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that inflation will ease below seven percent year-on-year (y/y) in September 2015 on the back of lower prices of raw foods and lower administered prices (including fuel and electricity) in the post the Ramadan and Idul Fitri period. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank expects inflation at around 6.95 percent (y/y) in September.

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In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for a seven consecutive month in September’s Board of Governor’s meeting (17/09) as it aims to stabilize the rupiah amid global volatility caused by looming higher US interest rates and China’s hard landing (as well as yuan depreciation), while combating inflation which stood at 7.18 percent (y/y) in August. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were left unchanged at 5.5 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

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With all eyes on the two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, we could almost forget that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will also hold its monthly policy meeting today. Similar to the topic discussed in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (16-17 September), Bank Indonesia may consider raising its key interest rate (BI rate) as a Fed Fund Rate hike would trigger capital outflows, while Indonesia’s inflation rate remains high and the rupiah is fragile.

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Indonesia's October inflation rate was well-received by investors. On Friday (01/11), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the country's inflation in October 2013 grew 0.09 percent. Easing inflation was mainly due to falling prices of raw foods and clothes. Year-on-year (yoy), however, Indonesia's inflation is still high at 8.32 percent, although showing a moderating trend from 8.40 percent (yoy) in September 2013 and 8.79 percent (yoy) in August 2013. Inflation had skyrocketed after subsidized fuel prices were raised by an average 33 percent in June.

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Forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 and beyond have been revised down by all institutions, including the Indonesian government and central bank as well as international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Initially, the country’s economic growth was expected to reach around 6.5 percent in 2013. However, most institutions have downgraded forecasts for the country’s economic growth to below the 6.0 percent mark.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) was down 0.61 percent to 4,492.26 on its first trading day after the Idul Adha celebrations (when Muslims remember that Abraham was willing to sacrifice his son to God). The main reason why the IHSG was down on Wednesday (16/10) was due to continued uncertainty about the US debt ceiling issue, while the deadline (17/10) is closing in. Fitch Ratings put US Treasury bonds on Rating Watch Negative, which might be a first step before a downgrade.

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According to the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), cement sales in Indonesia reached 41.6 million tons in the first three quarters of 2013, a 5.3 percent increase compared to domestic cement sales in the same period in 2012 (39.5 million tons), while Indonesia's cement exports jumped by 187 percent to 503 thousand tons. As such, total cement sales from January to September 2013 grew 6.2 percent to 42 million tons. Meanwhile, Semen Indonesia, Indonesia's largest cement producer, managed to expand its market share.

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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at a level of 7.25 percent, with rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility held respectively at 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent. Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and further synergise the monetary and macroprudential policy mix in order to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, that rupiah exchange rate stability is maintained according to its fundamentals and the current account deficit is reduced to a sustainable level.

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The Consumer Confidence Index of Indonesia rose 0.9 percent in September 2013 after having fallen 8.4 percent in the previous month. In September, the index rose because Indonesian consumers are more confident about prospects of the Indonesian economy, while concerns about the increase of certain food prices eased. Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, chief economist at the Danareksa Research Insititute, said that in September 77.4 percent of consumers were concerned about rising food prices, down from 82.5 percent in August.

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Growth rates in Indonesia in 2013 and 2014 will fall below earlier projections, highlighting the need to continue improving the country’s competitiveness in manufactured exports, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in an update of its flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2013. ADB revised down its 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.7% from 6.4% seen in April. For 2014, growth will also be adjusted to 6.0% from the previous estimate of 6.6%.

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It seems clear now how market conditions will be until the end of the year. Two important foreign issues - the US Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing (QE3) as well as the US debt ceiling issue which resulted in a shutdown as the Democrats and Republicans failed to come to an agreement on the country's federal budget - and various economic data from Indonesia (inflation and the trade balance) have provided some more insight into the matter. I will discuss each topic one by one below.

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After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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