The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth to reach between 4.9 and 5.0 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, only rising slightly from GDP growth realization of 4.92 percent in the first quarter. Growth is forecast to remain subdued as Indonesia's household consumption has not improved markedly yet (reflected by low demand for credit). Meanwhile, the global economic context remains plagued by uncertainties, particularly ongoing concern about the economies of the USA, China and Europe.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2016 to improve slightly to 4.9 - 5.0 percent (y/y) compared to the 4.92 percent (y/y) GDP growth realization in the first quarter of the year. Regarding growth in full-year 2016, Bank Indonesia remains optimistic that a 5.4 percent growth pace can be achieved supported by a looser monetary policy (that should boost demand for credit). Bank Indonesia cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 0.25 percentage point to 6.50 percent in the June policy meeting.

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The World Bank released the June 2016 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report on Monday (20/06). Recently, the Washington-based institution took a rigorous step by downgrading its 2016 global economic growth forecast from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y). This is a significant downgrade that was primarily due to the weak performance of commodity exporters. Despite this downgrade the World Bank still sees a resilient Indonesian economy, reflected by a GDP growth forecast of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 and 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2017.

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In line with expectations, the government of Indonesia revised down its economic growth target in 2016 from 5.3 percent (y/y) to 5.1 percent (y/y) amid subdued private consumption, slower-than-expected private investment, and low commodity prices. Meanwhile, the World Bank also cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to 5.1 percent (y/y), down from its earlier prediction of 5.3 percent (y/y). The World Bank also slashed its outlook for global growth from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y) this year.

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On 22 May 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as revisions made to the economic growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2016 and 2017, the trade balance, batik industry, infrastructure, rupiah & stocks, company updates, and much more.

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The government of Indonesia revised down its forecast for economic growth in 2017 to the range of 5.3 - 5.9 percent (y/y). On Friday (20/05) Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro informed parliament about the change in the growth outlook (related to the 2017 State Budget). Initially, the government projected Indonesia's 2017 GDP growth in the range of 5.5 - 5.9 percent (y/y). Brodjonegoro did not explain, however, why the government decided to revise down its GDP growth forecast in the 2017 State Budget.

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Slowly but surely Indonesia is obtaining the investment grade rating from the world's three key credit rating agencies. Fitch Ratings already reinstated Indonesia's investment grade rating in 2011, a step that was followed by Moody's Investors Service in 2012. Although Standard & Poor's (S&P) has been more careful, there emerged speculation that S&P will assign the investment grade status to Indonesia soon (perhaps in June 2016). Last week, a S&P team visited Indonesia - to study the country's latest policy reforms and developments - and signaled that its assessment is positive.

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Efforts to raise people's purchasing power and household consumption in Indonesia will be key to push for higher economic growth in 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2016. Although this result failed to meet analysts' projections (which generally stood around 5 percent y/y), it was higher than the 4.73 percent (y/y) economic growth pace that was posted in the same quarter one year earlier.

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According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) the unemployment rate of Indonesia fell to 5.5 percent of the nation's labor force, or 7.02 million people in absolute terms, in February 2016 (compared to an unemployment rate of 5.81 percent one year earlier). The data from BPS also indicate that Indonesia's workforce - remarkably - shrank from 128.3 million in February 2015 to 127.8 million people in February 2016 particularly due to a decline in workers in the agriculture sector.

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Economic growth of Indonesia was weaker-than-estimated in the first quarter of 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released today (04/05), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016. Most analysts expected to see a GDP growth pace slightly above the 5 percent (y/y) mark and therefore the publication of BPS was disappointing and raises questions whether Indonesia's economic growth can in fact accelerate significantly in 2016.

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Indonesia's residential property market has shown robust growth in recent years as demand from the country's rapidly expanding middle class for mid-level and luxury property increased steadily amid a low interest rate environment and robust national economic growth. Demand for property is also backed by high consumer confidence as a recent Nielsen survey shows that Indonesians are among the world's most confident consumers. Indonesians' consumer confidence was at a four-year high in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the February 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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After Indonesia's outlook for economic growth in 2014 was revised down from 6 percent to between 5.8 and 6 percent, the government also revised targets of poverty and unemployment reduction. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the government set the targeted poverty rate at 9.0 to 10.5 percent of Indonesia's total population. However, the government revised down this poverty rate to between 10.54 and 10.75 percent, which is also far below the target that was set in the National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) at 8 to 10 percent.

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Moody's Investors Service, one of the big three global credit rating firms, predicts that profit in Indonesia's banking sector remains stable due to strong financial fundamentals. In its report "Indonesia Banking System Outlook", which discusses Indonesian banks' creditworthiness over the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's assesses that - despite an economic slowdown having reduced GDP growth to 5.78 percent in 2013 and puts some pressure on asset quality - high profitability and strong capital levels will continue into 2014.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, in effect since 12 January 2014, will result in slowing economic growth in several regions in the eastern part of Indonesia as these regions are main sources of mineral production. Doddy Zulverdi, Head of the Economic Assessment Group in Bank Indonesia's Department of Economic and Monetary Policy, said that Sulawesi and Kalimantan will post slowing economic growth this year.

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Recently, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released various data in the context of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Economic expansion of Southeast Asia's largest economy slowed to 5.78 percent (year-on-year) in 2013. Household consumption accounted for the largest share of Indonesia's GDP (55.8 percent) and continued to grow significantly (5.28 percent yoy) in 2013. This consumer force is one of the main reasons why many foreign companies enter and expand their businesses in Indonesia.

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At Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors’ Meeting today (13/02), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent as well as the interest rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. The policy is consistent with the tight monetary policy stance currently adopted in order to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Indonesia's cement sales in January 2014 declined 1 percent to 4.65 million metric tons from the same month in 2013 (4.68 million metric tons). The decline was caused by severe floods brought about by high rainfall amid a peak in Indonesia's rainy season. The floods resulted in disrupted distribution networks, therefore blocking cement shipments to retailers. Moreover, these weather conditions caused the postponement of several construction activities, thus reducing demand for cement.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the January 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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On Wednesday (05/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy of Indonesia expanded 5.78 percent in 2013. This result implies that in 2013 Indonesia experienced the slowest pace of GDP growth since its 4.63 percentage growth in 2009. However, this slowing growth was basically self-inflicted as both the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) used various monetary and fiscal policies to curb economic expansion in order to tackle several financial issues.

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