The International Monetary Fund (IMF) praised the Indonesian government's policy approach to safeguard the country's financial stability amid external shocks in 2013 and hopes that the new government, which will be inaugurated in October 2014, continues the economic reform agenda. Changyong Rhee, Director of the IMF's Asia Pacific Department, said that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - is currently on the right track and forecast to grow 5.4 percent in 2014, slightly lower than the 5.78 percentage growth in 2013.

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Car and motorcycle sales increased rapidly in Indonesia throughout March 2014, primarily due to an improved distribution network. In the previous months, heavy rains amid a peak of the rainy season (causing floods in various parts of Indonesia) resulted in the postponement of car and motorcycle purchases. Data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) indicated that car sales surged 18 percent (year-on-year, yoy) to 113,277 units in March 2014, while motorcycle sales grew 9.2 percent (yoy) to 728,820 units.

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Indonesian consumer confidence continued to grow in March 2014. According to the latest survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), the country's consumer confidence rose to 118.2 in March from 116.2 one month earlier. Indonesians are particularly optimistic about domestic economic conditions over the next six months, evidenced by a 3.2 point rise in the Consumer Expectations Index to 123.9 points. Increasing consumer confidence is positive for household consumption, an important pillar of Indonesia's economic growth.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate moved rather sideways on Friday (04/04). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency appreciated 0.06 percent to IDR 11,316 per US dollar. Most emerging Asian currencies tended to depreciate against the greenback as the market is waiting for US unemployment data, released later today. Overall, market participants remain confident in Indonesia's economic fundamentals as inflation eased to 7.32 percent (yoy) in March, while the country posted a trade surplus of USD $785 million in February.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 11,323 per US dollar on Thursday (03/04) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Analysts Rangga Cipta (Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia) and Zulfirman Basir (Monex Investindo Futures) expect the rupiah to move sideways or weaken toward the end of the week as the market is waiting for various data, including the meeting of the European Central Bank regarding its interest rate (03/04), US unemployment, US nonfarm payrolls and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Indonesia's economic growth this year to slow slightly compared to the 5.78 percent growth rate recorded in 2013. ADB's Country Director for Indonesia, Adrian Ruthenberg, said that GDP growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy is expected to slow to 5.7 percent in 2014 but will accelerate to 6 percent in 2015. The ADB's forecast is based on the assumption that Indonesia's legislative and presidential elections will run smoothly as well as continued government effort to improve the investment climate.

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On Tuesday (01/04), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's March 2014 inflation rate was recorded at 0.08 percent, considerably lower than February 2014 inflation (0.26 percent) and March inflation in 2013 (0.63 percent). Factors that contributed to lower than expected March inflation were a decline in prices of food commodities due to the start of the harvest season, and the appreciating rupiah, which neutralized imported inflation. On a year-on-year basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 7.32 percent from 7.75 percent in February 2014.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) expects inflation in March 2014 to be kept below the one percent mark due to the arrival of the harvest season. Prices of several commodities, including rice, beef, chicken meet and chili, are expected to ease. In fact, BPS official Sasmito Hadi Wibowo stated that there is a chance on deflation in March 2014. Historically, Indonesia's inflation in March and April tends to be low, particularly in the latter as the harvest season reaches its peak. In 2013, Indonesia recorded inflation at 0.63 percent in March.

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Car sales in Indonesia grew 8.2 percent (year-on-year) to 111,767 vehicles in February 2014 according to the latest data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers (Gaikindo). As usual, car sales were dominated by Toyota, Daihatsu (both are distributed by Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates), Mitsubishi, Suzuki and Honda. February sales were supported by the popular low-cost green car (LCGC) that was introduced on Indonesia's market in 2013.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) lowered its forecast for growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy in 2014 from the range of 5.8 - 6.2 percent to 5.5 - 5.9 percent as expansion of domestic consumption and exports are less robust than previously estimated. As such, Bank Indonesia implied that economic expansion of Indonesia will slow down further. Starting from 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Indonesia has declined steadily from 6.5 percent to 5.8 percent in 2013.

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On this week's second day of trading (01/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) was able to post a 0.69 percent rise to 4,345.90 points despite ongoing concerns about the economic shutdown in the United States as discussions have not led to agreement about the country's debt ceiling. However, various data from Asia made a good impact. Indonesia's trade surplus in August and deflation in September contributed to positive market sentiments and provided a boost for the rupiah.

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Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of Indonesia's September inflation rate. Indonesia has been hit by high inflation since the government decided to increase prices of subsidized fuels at the end of June. High inflation limits its people's purchasing power and as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's economic growth, it thus impacts negatively on GDP growth, particularly after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 5.75 to 7.25 percent between June and September.

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The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

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Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, expects deflation of about 0.9 percent in September 2013. Statistics Indonesia, on the other hand, believes there will be limited inflation this month. Both institutions agree, however, on a forecast of at least 9 percent of inflation over full-year 2013. The bank's September forecast is based on a survey that was conducted in the second week of September. This survey showed that food commodities and government administered prices eased.

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Starting from May 2013, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) has been on a weakening (bearish) trend inflicted by various reasons. First, in early May, Standard & Poor's downgraded Indonesia's credit rating due to the government's hesitancy to slash fuel subsidies. Then, the Federal Reserve started to speculate about ending its quantitative easing program. Capital outflows that followed indicated the vulnerable state of the Indonesian economy. Moreover, the controversial hike in fuel prices in late-June resulted in high inflation.

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On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).

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Investors all around the world are in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision to scale back the monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing (QE3). If indeed scaled back, then another important question remains: how much will the bond-buying program be toned down? Today (18/09), is the last day of the Fed's FOMC meeting in which these decisions are made. The market expects no drastic end to the program, instead a gradual toning down (between USD $10 to $20 billion) is anticipated.

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Indonesia's poverty rate is expected to jump to between 11.13 and 11.37 percent of the total Indonesian population in 2013 due to inflationary pressures. Inflation may reach 9.2 percent at the year end. The new poverty forecast is significantly higher than the government's original target of 9.5 to 10.5 percent as set in the country's State Budget. The revised forecast was presented by Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas). Poverty basket inflation is expected to rise accordingly.

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Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) climbed 7.3 percent to end at 4,375.53 on Friday (13/09). This growth is remarkable as it remains unknown what the Federal Reserve will do with its quantitative easing program (QE3). The next Fed meeting - scheduled for 17-18 September - is expected to provide more clarity regarding this matter. Positive sentiments that lifted the IHSG were Indonesia's slightly increased foreign exchange reserves, its stable rupiah after another BI rate hike, and the Bilateral Swap Deals (BSA) with Japan and China.

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It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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