The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is currently dealing with a dilemma. On the one hand, its relatively high interest rate environment (with the benchmark BI rate at 7.50 percent) is partly responsible for the country’s slowing economic growth as credit expansion is curtailed and economic activity declines. On the other hand, Bank Indonesia’s high BI rate is needed to safeguard Indonesia’s financial stability as inflation is still above the central bank’s target, the current account deficit nearly unsustainable, and capital outflows loom.

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On 10 May 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on Indonesia’s Q1-2015 economic growth, April inflation, domestic manufacturing activity, the new palm oil export levy, car sales, unemployment, the mobile phone industry, and more.

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After seeing the disappointing GDP growth figure of 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, investors have become concerned about Indonesia’s economic growth in the remainder of the year. The poor Q1-2015 GDP growth was caused by the country’s weak export performance (due to the sluggish global economy and low commodity prices), Indonesia’s high interest rate environment (curbing people’s purchasing power and business expansion of local companies), and sluggish government spending.

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The Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo) lowered its car sales target for 2015 to 1.1 million vehicles, down from its original sales target of 1.2 million vehicles, due to persistent slowing economic growth in Indonesia (curbing consumer demand). On Tuesday (05/05), Statistics Indonesia announced that the country’s economic growth slowed to 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, a five-year low. Other important factors that negatively influence car sales are inflation, the interest rate, the rupiah, and fuel prices.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at Tuesday’s Board of Governors’ Meeting (14 April 2015). The institution also left its deposit facility and lending facility at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers this level to be effective in order to push the country’s inflation rate back into its target range of 3-5 percent (y/y) in both 2015 and 2016. It is also convinced that this interest rate environment will improve the current account balance.

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In the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Monday (13/04), the Washington-based institution revised down its economic growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2015, down from 5.6 percent in its October 2014 Update. Main reasons for this downgrade is that Indonesia’s export performance remains weak amid the sluggish global economy, including weak demand from China (Indonesia’s largest trading partner). Meanwhile, Indonesia’s domestic consumption is curtailed by high interest rates.

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On 5 April 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an analysis of March inflation, the new letter of credit (L/C) policy for key commodity exports, the appointment of Pertamina as operator of the Mahakam block, and more.

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After two straight months of deflation, Indonesia saw its consumer price index rise again in March 2015. According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded inflation of 0.17 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March. This result was in line with analysts’ projections. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation rose to 6.38 percent from the same month last year, slightly higher than the 6.29 percent (y/y) of inflation recorded in February. The country’s core inflation rose to 5.04 percent (y/y) in March.

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Indonesian stocks continued to climb strongly after the market opened on Tuesday (31/03). The country’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged nearly one percent. Several external and internal factors are at play here. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve indicated over the past week that it may not raise its key interest rate too soon, leading to investors’ appetite for emerging market assets. Secondly, Chinese policymakers provided room for increased infrastructure spending and monetary stimulus.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia’s inflation rate in March will be around 0.3 to 0.4 percent month-to-month (m/m), slightly higher than its earlier forecast of around 0.28 percent (m/m). Later this week, Statistics Indonesia will release the country’s March inflation figure. In February inflation eased to 6.29 percent year-on-year (y/y) - from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month - amid declining fuel and food prices despite some inflationary pressures caused by higher rice prices.

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Indonesia's largest company by market capitalization is still HM Sampoerna, the country's largest tobacco company. The company has been the top company in Indonesia since March 2013 when it replaced Astra International, Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerate, on the top spot. Astra had been Indonesia's largest company since 2010. Currently, the third-largest company in terms of market capitalization is Unilever Indonesia. Unilever, which is Indonesia’s largest consumer goods producer, jumped four places in the ranking since late 2012.

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Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) remained under pressure and was corrected 122,735 points, or 2.9 percent. At the start of the week, a number of important data were released. Inflation in August 2013 was 1.12 percent (month-to-month), 7.94 percent (calender year 2013), and 8.79 percent (year on year). Major contributors to Indonesia's inflation rate were food products (0.45 percent), followed by housing, water, electricity and gas (0.16 percent), and transportation, communication and financial services (0.16 percent).

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In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.

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Although many global indices were up, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) fell a total of 2.93 percent during last week's trading. One important issue on global indices is the tapering off of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE3). On 17 and 18 September, the next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled, which is expected to discuss the future of QE3. Notably, as the meeting comes closer, most global indices in fact rise. Thus, market players seem to have become less concerned about an end to QE3.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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HSBC's latest release of the Indonesia Manufacturing PMI did not paint a positive picture as Indonesia's manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted sharply in August 2013. The index declined to a 15-month low amid a contraction of output, new orders and export business. Payroll numbers fell at the fastest rate in the history of the HSBC survey. The August index stood at 48.5, down from 50.7 in July 2013, and marks the fourth consecutive month of decline. A reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

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Last week Friday (30/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) ended 2.23 percent up to the level of 4,195.09 points, continuing its three-day 'winning streak'. Underlying reasons being the central bank's new policy package (that was released as a response towards the negative impact of global turmoil on Indonesia's financial stability) and the higher benchmark interest rate (BI rate). The BI rate was raised 50 basis points on Thursday (29/08) to 7.0 percent to stabilize the weakening rupiah that fell to IDR 11,000 per US dollar.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00 percent and its deposit facility (Fasbi) by 0.50 percent to 5.25 percent seem to have had a good impact on the value of Indonesia's stocks and the rupiah. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 2.23 percent to 4,195.09 points on Friday (30/08), implying a three-day winning streak. Since the first trading day of this year, the IHSG is down 3.47 percent.

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