Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's current account deficit, the broadest measure of international transactions, may widen in the second quarter of 2014 as many local companies engage in business expansion. Such expansion usually triggers an increased amount of imports, thus impacting on the trade balance. A widening current account deficit in the second quarter of the year is a normal trend. The balance usually improves in the third and fourth quarters.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, expects that the country’s trade balance will post a surplus of around USD $600 million in April 2014, roughly similar to the surplus that was recorded one month earlier (USD $673 million). The April 2014 surplus would be supported by an improvement in non-oil & gas exports, stable commodity prices (particularly coal and crude palm oil/CPO), as well as the waning influence of the Minerba Act.

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The Residential Property Price Survey still indicates slowing growth of Indonesian residential property prices (in the primary market) in the first quarter of 2014. The Residential Property Price Index grew 1.45 percent (quarter to quarter) in the first quarter of 2014 or 7.92 percent year-on-year, lower than the growth that was recorded in the previous quarter of 1.77 percent (qtq) or 11.51 percent (yoy). The slowdown occurred in all types of homes, but in particular the medium and large homes segment.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that the improving trend of the current account deficit continued in the first quarter (January-March) of 2014. The current account deficit fell from USD $4.3 billion, equivalent to 2.12 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 to USD $4.2 billion (2.06 percent of GDP) in Q1-2014. This improvement was brought about due to a decrease in imports of goods and the narrowing deficits in the services and income accounts.

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At the Board of Governors Meeting (08/05), Bank Indonesia decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) at 7.50 percent, the Lending Facility at 7.50 percent and the Deposit Facility at 5.75 percent. Bank Indonesia considers this monetary policy consistent with efforts to direct inflation back to its target level of 4.5 ± 1 percent in 2014 and 4.0 ± 1 percent in 2015, as well as to further ease the country's current account deficit to a more sustainable level. On Friday, Bank Indonesia is expected to release current account data covering Q1-2014.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent depreciating trend on Thursday (08/05). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.36 percent to IDR 11,619 per US dollar at 13:30 local Jakarta time. Apart from market participants' wait and see attitude ahead of results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors Meeting, which is held today and will inform whether the current benchmark interest rate of 7.50 percent will be maintained, increased concerns about exports to China also put pressure on the rupiah.

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The foreign exchange reserves at the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) increased about USD $3 billion to USD $105.6 billion at the end of April 2014, the highest level in 15 months, particularly due to export earnings of government-owned oil and gas exporters. Bank Indonesia said that the current position of forex reserves is equivalent to 6.1 months of imports or 5.9 months of imports and servicing external debt (well above the international standard of three months of imports). Today, the central bank's Board of Governors Meeting is held.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released its '2013 Economic Report on Indonesia' earlier this week. This report discusses in great detail both global and domestic economic dynamics as well as policy responses. The year 2013 was a year full of challenges for the Indonesian economy because of changes in global economic conditions (US Federal Reserve tapering), requiring a range of structural policy changes to steer the economy of Indonesia towards a more balanced growth and restored macroeconomic stability.

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Indonesia’s external debt in February 2014 amounted to USD $272.1 billion, thus having increased 7.4 percent (year-on-year) from the same month a year earlier. Outstanding external debt as of end-February 2014 consisted of public sector debt (USD $129.0 billion) and private sector debt (USD $143.1 billion). The growth pace of Indonesia's external debt in February 2014 was slightly higher than the 7.2 percent (yoy) growth pace recorded in January 2014. These data were taken from Bank Indonesia's website.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said that the country's private debt has increased steadily in recent years. On the one hand this is a good sign as it indicates that the private sector is growing, but on the other hand the lender of last resort warned Indonesian companies to watch over their foreign loans as it can jeopardize the country’s financial stability. Private sector foreign debt doubled between 2009 and 2013, reaching USD $141.4 billion in January 2014. Meanwhile, public debt stood at the level of USD $127.9 billion in the same month.

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Forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 and beyond have been revised down by all institutions, including the Indonesian government and central bank as well as international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Initially, the country’s economic growth was expected to reach around 6.5 percent in 2013. However, most institutions have downgraded forecasts for the country’s economic growth to below the 6.0 percent mark.

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Today (18/10), the Governor of Bank Indonesia and the Chairman of the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) signed an agreement concerning “cooperation and coordination to support task implementation at Bank Indonesia and OJK”. The agreement forms a basis for expediting and optimising coordination between both organisations in terms of their function, task and authority in light of the upcoming transfer of the banking regulation and supervision function from Bank Indonesia to OJK on 31 December 2013.

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On 12 October 2013 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors from Korea and Indonesia agreed to establish a bilateral KRW/IDR swap arrangement in the near future. The size of the swap arrangement is up to KRW 10.7 trillion/IDR 115 trillion (equivalent to USD $10 billion). The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by agreement by both sides. This Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) aims to promote bilateral trade and further strengthen financial cooperation, an objective of mutual interest to both countries.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) started mixed on Wednesday (09/10), it gradually climbed as the trading day moved on. The country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate), which was kept at 7.25 percent by Bank Indonesia on Tuesday (08/10), continued to make a positive impact. However, negative market sentiments were brought on by the US shutdown as well as the downgrade of the IMF's outlook for world economic growth in 2013 and 2014. Lastly, the weakening IDR rupiah also implied negative market sentiments.

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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at a level of 7.25 percent, with rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility held respectively at 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent. Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and further synergise the monetary and macroprudential policy mix in order to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, that rupiah exchange rate stability is maintained according to its fundamentals and the current account deficit is reduced to a sustainable level.

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After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of Indonesia's September inflation rate. Indonesia has been hit by high inflation since the government decided to increase prices of subsidized fuels at the end of June. High inflation limits its people's purchasing power and as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's economic growth, it thus impacts negatively on GDP growth, particularly after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 5.75 to 7.25 percent between June and September.

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Bank Indonesia amended its regulation concerning the Loan To Value (LTV) and Financing To Value (FTV) ratio for property credit and property-backed consumer loans. The LTV/FTV ratio is the ratio between the value of credit/financing that can be allocated by a bank and the corresponding value of collateral in the form of property when the loan is allocated. Property is real property that includes houses, vertical housing (apartments, flats, condominiums and penthouses), home offices and home stores.

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Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, expects deflation of about 0.9 percent in September 2013. Statistics Indonesia, on the other hand, believes there will be limited inflation this month. Both institutions agree, however, on a forecast of at least 9 percent of inflation over full-year 2013. The bank's September forecast is based on a survey that was conducted in the second week of September. This survey showed that food commodities and government administered prices eased.

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