The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s meeting. Currently, Bank Indonesia’s key interest rate (BI rate) stands at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. The central bank seems committed to this relatively high interest rate environment as the country’s inflation accelerated to 7.15 percent (y/y) in May, while the rupiah touched a 17-year low on 9 June 2015.

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In line with the performance of most other stock indices in Asia today (15/06), Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell over one percent in the first trading session. Primary reasons for this weak performance are concerns about stalled negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone creditors. Negotiations broke down without a deal on the bailout aid causing raising worries about a Greek default on its debt (a payment is due at the end of this month) as well as a Greek exit from the Eurozone (“Grexit”).

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Immediately after the opening of trade on Wednesday (10/06), Indonesian stocks rebounded sharply. Yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had fallen 2.30 percent due to worries about looming higher US interest rates later this year, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone, heavy rupiah depreciation, and weak domestic macroeconomic data (such as Indonesia’s high inflation, disappointing Q1-2015 economic growth, the still wide current account deficit, and the central bank’s falling forex reserves).

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Indonesian stocks declined more than expected during the first trading session on Tuesday (09/06). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 3.12 percent to 4,858.31 points amid heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike as well as worries about the Greek debt situation in the Eurozone. The performance of other Asian stock indices was mixed on Tuesday morning with Shanghai, Singapore and South Korea showing modest gains, while New Zealand, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan were down marginally.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are experiencing severe pressures at the start of the new trading week. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 1.68 percent to 5,014.99 points (a seven-month low), while the rupiah depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 13,385 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (08/06). As such, the rupiah extended its record-low closing in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are the worst performing Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah continues to be a cause for concern as the currency immediately depreciated heavily after trading opened on Monday (08/06). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah hit a new record-low of IDR 13,382 per US dollar in the post Asian Financial Crisis era at 9:10 am. Due to a lack of domestic and international positive sentiments only central bank intervention can support the country's ailing currency. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks followed suit by declining 0.70 percent shortly after opening.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued to set a new record-low in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 13,290 per US dollar on Friday (05/06), the weakest level since 1998. A number of factors are responsible for this weak performance. These include higher bond yields, US dollar demand due to dividend repatriation and debt repayment, Indonesia’s high inflation, uncertainty about the Greek debt crisis and looming higher US interest rates.

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As the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate on Thursday (04/06), touching a 17-year low, a central bank official tried to ease concerns by stating that Bank Indonesia is always in the foreign exchange and bond markets to monitor movements and ease volatility. On Thursday morning the bond yield, which has been rising since Friday (29/05), was 8.198 percent. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah had depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 13,245 by 11:10 am local Jakarta time.

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In line with other stock indices in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) has been weakening since the start of trading on Wednesday (03/06). Yesterday’s weakening indices on Wall Street, concern about rising bond yields, worries about the possibility of a default by debt-ridden Greece, and weak macroeconomic data from Indonesia have all contributed to the negative performance of Indonesian stocks so far today. By 11:15 am local time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.42 percent.

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Contrary to most Asian stock indices which were positively influenced by Japan’s higher economic growth as well as rising indices on Wall Street last Friday (06/06), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) fell considerably on Monday (09/06). Not even the appreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate could push the index back into the green zone. At the end of Monday’s trading day, the Jakarta Composite Index declined 1.06 percent to 4,885.08 points.

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Car sales in Indonesia declined 8 percent to 98,198 units in May 2014 from 106,811 units in the previous month. The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) said that the decline was the direct consequence of several public holidays (International Labour Day and the commemorations of Buddha’s birthday as well as ascensions of Prophet Muhammad and Jesus Christ). These holidays caused a lower car production rate and a reduced number of car deliveries to wholesale dealers.

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It was interesting to follow the performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) on Thursday (05/06) as it managed to enter the green zone just minutes ahead of closing. Most of the trading day, the index had been in the red zone as Asian stock indices were mostly down on concerns about economic growth in China, the world's second largest economy. Furthermore, investors are still cautiously following the recent depreciating trend of the Indonesian rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 11,860 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Thursday (05/06). However, this is not expected to be the start of an appreciating trend for the currency as there are still various domestic and international factors that place pressure on the rupiah. Contrary to the Bloomberg Index, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 11,874 against the US dollar today.

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Although Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri provided positive news to the market by stating that the country's trade deficit (and co-related current account deficit) will probably not be as large in the second quarter of 2014 (as compared to the same quarter in 2013) as well as an expected increase in Indonesian banks' consumer credit, the benchmark stock index (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was unable to rise on Wednesday's trading day (04/06). Particularly local investors were eager to sell their Indonesian shares.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate further on Wednesday (04/06). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Indonesia had weakened 0.38 percent to IDR 11,855 per US dollar by 15:00pm local Jakarta time. The depreciation occurred due to US dollar demand from local importers for payments and renewed concern about the country's trade balance. Today's performance of the rupiah is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies as investors return to the US dollar on higher US yields.

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Supported by enthousiastic foreign investors, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or also known as IHSG) managed to climb 0.61 percent to 4,942.16 points on Tuesday (03/06). Particularly consumer, trade and mining stocks were popular on today's trading day. It is interesting to note that this growth happened amid sharp rupiah depreciation as the currency still feels the negative impact of the USD $1.97 billion April 2014 trade deficit that was released yesterday (02/06).

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Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite index or IHSG) fell after the market responded to today's release of Indonesia's April trade deficit and May inflation, the index ended in the green zone due to foreign net buying and general positive Asian indices (influenced by higher stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week). Particularly Indonesia's big cap stocks in the miscellaneous industry and consumer sectors were popular as these were relatively cheap after having tumbled at the end of last week.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.77 percent to IDR 11,766 per US dollar on Monday (02/06) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. From the start of trading the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy immediately plummeted as market participants anticipated a trade deficit in April 2014. Last Friday, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that it expects Indonesia to post a deficit in April, whereas earlier statements of the central bank had mentioned a slight surplus.

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Asian stocks declined on Friday's trading day (30/05) after a government report showed that the US economy - the world's largest economy - shrank by one percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014, the country's first contraction since early 2011. The contraction was far worse than the initial forecast at 0.1 percent. The main cause of the contraction was the severe winter that hit the USA. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 1.84 percent to 4,893.91 points on Friday (30/05).

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