The Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) proposes two strategies to boost Indonesia's export performance in 2017: (1) seek new export markets and (2) export 'halal' products (which adhere to Islamic law) to the Middle East. Last week Indonesia's Trade Ministry revised down its export target for 2017. The Ministry now expects Indonesia's export performance to grow 5.6 percent (y/y) to USD $136 billion this year (from an estimated USD $129 billion in 2016). The revision makes the nation's export target in line with the slow recovery of international demand.

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The slow recovery of global demand made Indonesia decide to revise down its export growth target for non-oil and gas products in 2017. Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita said the government now targets a 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth in non-oil and gas exports (down from its earlier target of 11.9 percent y/y). This target is regarded as more realistic considering the slow recovery of international demand. To boost export growth in 2017 the government aims to diversify export markets as well as to, simply, export more products to existing export markets.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Thursday (15/12) that the nation's export performance in November 2016 showed a sharp increase. Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, Deputy for Statistics Distribution and Services at BPS, said Indonesia's export growth was "rather spectacular" and gives rise to optimism that global demand and trade have improved. In November Indonesia posted a USD $838 million trade surplus, down from the revised USD $1.24 billion in the preceding month. In all of the first eleven months of 2016, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus.

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Indonesia recorded a USD $1.21 billion trade surplus in October 2016 according to the latest data from the nation's Central Statistics Agency (BPS). In line with expectations both exports and imports rose last month supported by rising commodity prices (hence boosting the country's export performance) and an increase in machinery and electrical appliance imports into Indonesia. Meanwhile, BPS revised September's trade surplus to USD $1.27 billion, from USD $1.22 billion reported last month.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the nation's trade surplus improved to USD $1.22 billion in September 2016, the highest monthly surplus over the past 13 months. The rising surplus was primarily the result of a growing non-oil & gas trade surplus. However, both Indonesia's exports and imports contracted on an annual basis. But because imports declined more rapidly, Southeast Asia's largest economy managed to record a solid trade surplus in September, beating analysts' estimates, by far (that averaged around USD $450 million).

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Eight commodity prices have been rising steadily so far this year on higher global demand. This rebound is expected to continue into 2017 although it will require a long time to touch the levels that we saw in 2011. The World Bank noted in a report released on 4 October 2016 that the prices of eight commodities - coal, crude oil, crude palm oil, copper, iron ore, tin, nickel and gold - have been rebounding so far this year. Rising commodity prices will support economic growth of Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy is one of the world's largest commodity exporters.

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Indonesian entrepreneurs say their credit demand is limited due to few expansion and investment plans ahead of the end of the year. Although the Indonesian economy is recovering - reflected by accelerated GDP growth figures in the first two quarters of the year - demand from abroad for Indonesian products remains weak, while domestic demand remains somewhat subdued as well (reflected by the nation's structurally weakening export and import figures over the past 15 months). As a result credit growth has been slowing accordingly.

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Although at a slower pace, Indonesia's exports and imports continued to contract in August 2016. In August Indonesia exported USD $12.63 billion worth of goods down 0.75 percent on a year-on-year basis (much better than analysts had forecast). Meanwhile, Indonesia imported USD $12.34 billion worth of goods in August, down 0.49 percent (y/y). As such, the trade balance in August showed a USD $293.6 million surplus. However, Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) added that it was the 23rd month of declining imports and exports for Indonesia.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (15/08) that the trade balance of Indonesia showed a surplus of USD $598 million in July 2016, down from a USD $879.2 million surplus in the preceding month and considerably below analyst forecasts. Although Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, booked a USD $4.2 billion trade surplus in the first seven months of 2016, concern about Indonesia's weakening exports and imports persist. Faster falling imports (compared to exports) explains the trade surplus.

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Indonesia's latest trade data beat forecasts by quite a distance. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance recorded a monthly surplus of USD $900.2 million in June 2016. Previously, median forecasts expected a USD $300 million surplus. Meanwhile, the nation's trade surplus more than doubled in June from the monthly surplus in the preceding month, supported by strong exports of electronics, auto parts, finished garments, and rubber products. Despite this positive result, there remain some concerns.

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In line with estimates, Indonesia’s trade balance showed another deficit in January 2020. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $864.2 million trade deficit was recorded in the first month of the year.

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While many are relieved to see a trade surplus for Indonesia in August 2019, the picture does not look too positive when we delve a bit deeper in the data, and shows that global conditions are far from positive amid contracting international trade and subdued global economic growth (with ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China being a key issue).

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After nearly nine years of talks and negotiations (although communication between both sides had been put to a halt - amid diplomatic tensions – at more than one occasion over these nine years) Indonesia and Australia finally signed the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) in Jakarta on 4 March 2019. It is an agreement that launches a brand new chapter in economic relations and cooperation between Australia and Indonesia.

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Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $227.1 million trade surplus in September 2018. Although it is a very small surplus, it did lead to some optimism. After all, Indonesia had recorded big monthly trade deficits of USD $2.0 billion and USD $944.2 million in July 2018 and August 2018, respectively.

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Based on the latest data of Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade deficit was recorded at USD $1.02 billion in August 2018. Although improving from the USD $2.03 billion trade deficit one month earlier (which constituted Indonesia’s biggest monthly trade deficit in five years), the deficit remains robust and therefore causes persistent concerns about the country’s current account deficit and the rupiah exchange rate.

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The trade balance of Indonesia showed another deficit in February 2018, the nation's third consecutive monthly trade deficit. Based on data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), the country's total exports reached USD $14.1 billion in February, up 10.1 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, while total imports grew 25.2 percent (y/y) to USD $14.2 billion.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it expects to see another monthly trade deficit - approximately USD $230 million - in February 2018. If so, it would be the third straight monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy after a USD $220 million deficit in December 2017 and a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018 (the latter being the country's highest monthly deficit since April 2014).

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In line with the increase in domestic economic activity, Indonesia's trade balance recorded a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018. The deficit was particularly attributed to a shrinking surplus of the country's non-oil & gas trade balance. Although Indonesia's oil & gas deficit declined in the first month of 2018, it was not enough to offset the impact of the shrinking non-oil & gas surplus. Hence the country posted its second consecutive monthly trade deficit.

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Through Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods the Indonesian government requires exporters of crude palm oil (CPO), coal and rice to use ships that are owned by local sea transport companies as well as to use domestic insurance. This regulation will come into effect, gradually, per May 2018.

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In the last month of 2017 Indonesia posted a USD $270 million trade deficit according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This result goes against the prediction of most analysts, who expected to see another trade surplus for Southeast Asia's largest economy. Indonesia posted a trade surplus in all months of 2017 with the exception of July and December.

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