Amid unclarity over the newly introduced mandatory use of letters of credit (L/C), the Indonesian government has showed some flexibility. Starting from Wednesday (01/04) Indonesian exporters of four key commodities - coal, palm (kernel) oil, oil & gas, and minerals - are required to use L/C for all export deals. This new rule was developed in order to increase Indonesia’s export earnings and enhance monitoring sales of the country’s natural resources. However, a temporary exemption is now made possible.

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The coal mining industry continued its downward trend in 2014 amid weak global coal demand and an oversupply on the market. The benchmark Newcastle port thermal coal price fell 29 percent (y/y) over 2014 and declined a further 8 percent in the first quarter of 2015. As a result, Indonesian coal miners reported mostly weak 2014 corporate earnings. However, Indonesian miners are concerned that two new regulations will cause more problems. The Indonesian government plans to raise coal royalties and introduce mandatory letters of credit.

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On 15 March 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as an analysis of the rupiah performance, a forecast on the February 2015 trade balance, earnings in Indonesia’s coal mining industry, the processed food & beverage industry, the Trans-Sumatra toll road, and more.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have generally weakened in 2014, evidencing that the coal mining industry, which was a lucrative business in the 2000s during the commodities boom (until 2011), is still experiencing a slowdown amid global economic trouble. The sluggish global economy has resulted in weak demand for commodities such as coal and crude palm oil (two important foreign exchange earners of Indonesia). Particularly slowing economic growth in China is a concern.

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On 1 March 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as a forecast for February inflation, an analysis of the rupiah exchange rate, news from the coal mining and palm oil sectors, Islamic finance, the IPO of Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat, and more.

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Bad news for Indonesian coal miners as the government of Indonesia plans to raise coal royalties in March 2015 in a bid to increase revenue from the natural resources sector. Apart from raising royalties, the government will also implement measures to enhance monitoring in the coal mining sector (as illegal coal shipments and tax avoidance are a major problem). The plan to nearly double coal royalties are particularly expected to impact negatively on smaller miners and new firms that focus on the production of low-quality coal.

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On 25 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the impact of the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program on Indonesia’s stocks and currency, the global challenges that are being faced by Indonesia, an infrastructure update, international relations, and more.

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Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) Agus Martowardojo said that there are two main global challenges that are being faced by Southeast Asia’s largest economy and which can impact negatively on the nation’s economy. These challenges are the low global oil prices (which have fallen below USD $50 per barrel) and the monetary policy normalization of the US Federal Reserve amid the structural economic recovery of the USA. This policy involves higher US interest rates (expected in the second half of 2015) and a bullish US dollar.

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Bob Kamandanu, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), advises the government of Indonesia to cut the country’s coal production by about 50 million tons and cap coal exports at 300 million tons in 2015 in an effort to boost global coal prices which are currently touching an eight-year low amid the sluggish global economy (particularly weakening coal demand from China) in combination with a coal oversupply. Indonesia is the world’s leading exporter of thermal coal which is primarily used in electricity generation.

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After the World Bank released a rather gloomy forecast for global economic growth on Tuesday (13/01) while crude oil prices continue to fall, global commodity prices have become under pressure on Wednesday’s trading day. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said that the global economy will grow 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was also revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent.

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Amid rising mining commodity prices, Indonesian coal mining company Adaro Energy saw its share price surge at the start of 2018. The mining index is actually the best-performing index so far this year in Indonesia, rising 13.58 percent since the start of the year. Being a mining company - or more precisely an energy company (as it recently entered the power generation sector) - Adaro Energy is among the major beneficiaries.

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A number of listed coal mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are eager to raise production capacity amid attractive coal prices. One way to boost production capacity is through the acquisition of other coal miners. Indonesia's key thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - the monthly benchmark price that is set by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - rose slightly to USD $94.80 per metric ton in November 2017.

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Foreign exchange earnings are important assets for a national economy. Therefore, many nations have recently been taking a much more protectionist approach vis-à-vis trade in an effort to strengthen their trade positions, generate trade surpluses, hence see the inflow of more foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange assets support a stable local currency as well as economy.

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Sales of United Tractors, the largest distributor of heavy equipment in Indonesia and part of the Astra Group, continue to climb in 2017. In fact, the management of United Tractors now expects full-year 2017 sales to exceed their initial forecast. Sara Loebis, Corporate Secretary of United Tractors, said the company has therefore raised its forecast for full-year heavy equipment unit sales from 3,000 to 3,200 units.

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Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.

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The recently rallying coal price is a major boost for leading Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy. Mirae Asset Sekuritas noted in a new report that Adaro Energy is in a great position to book higher corporate earnings in the years ahead because the miner's structure (and subsidiaries) are highly integrated and therefore it can more-or-less control the costs and risks in each business stage.

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The soaring benchmark thermal coal price of the Indonesian government (called harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, should boost earnings of listed Indonesian coal miner Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam in 2017. The HBA price nearly doubled to USD $102 per metric ton in December from the year-start. Besides the rising coal price, the company should also see improving corporate earnings due to its expected rising sales volume.

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The sharply rallying coal price in the second half of 2016 and its strong cash position (a sign of financial strength and liquidity) is the right recipe for listed Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy to post strong corporate earnings this year. In fact, Indonesian securities company Trimegah Securities believes that Harum Energy is the coal miner that will benefit the most of all listed coal miners on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) because 95 percent of its coal sales is sold on the spot market.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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