Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is expected to decline 5 percent (y/y) to 29.6 million tons from a realization of 31.2 million tons in the preceding year. At the start of the year the Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia targeted CPO output around 31-32 million tons in full-year 2016. However, lower-than-targeted CPO production is the result of a looming strong La Nina weather phenomenon (which brings wetter-than-usual conditions to Southeast Asia) and the strong El Nino earlier this year (bringer droughts to Southeast Asia).

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An official at Indonesia's Trade Ministry said Southeast Asia's largest economy is to scrap the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) again. In July 2016 the export tax will be lowered to zero, from USD $3 per ton in the preceding month, due to sliding palm oil prices. The Indonesian government expects palm oil prices to fall in July because after the Ramadan month and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations are finished demand for the edible is set to decline.

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Palm oil shipments from Indonesia surged 20 percent month-on-month to 2.09 million tons in April 2016 (from 1.74 million tons in the preceding month) according to the latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki). Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of Gapki, said Indonesia's palm oil exports are supported by declining edible oil output in several countries. High rainfall in Argentina and Brazil disturbed local soy bean harvests, while the US soybean harvest is weak as well. Furthermore, rapeseed harvests in China, India and the European Union are weak too, hence boosting demand for CPO.

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The Indonesian Oil Palm Smallholders Association (Apkasindo) requests the government to support the replanting of 2.5 million hectares of oil palm plantations owned by smallholder farmers. Through Minister of Agriculture Regulation No.18/2016 on Guidelines for the Rejuvenation of Oil Palm Plantations, the government is lawfully forced to support smallholder farmers regarding the rejuvenation of oil palm trees. To finance this program, the government takes funds from the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund (BPDP-KS). The BPDP-KS collects funds from the export levies for palm oil products.

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For the first time since October 2014, Indonesia's palm oil exporters will have to pay an export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments as the government's reference CPO price was set at USD $754.10 per ton in May (the level of USD $750 per ton separates taxable from non-taxable shipments). The Indonesian government announced that it will impose a USD $3 per ton tax on CPO exports in May 2016. Palm oil is the key foreign exchange earner for Indonesia in terms of non-mining export products. The country is the world's largest producer and exporter of CPO, followed by Malaysia.

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The stock performance of Indonesian companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2016 is expected to be better than last year's performance. One of the factors that supports this assumption is Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. Most - if not all - analysts expect GDP growth to rebound from its six-year low of 4.79 percent (y/y) in 2015. Indonesia's Q4-2015 GDP growth at 5.04 percent (y/y) was already promising (supported by government spending). In 2016 a growth pace in the range of 5.0 - 5.2 percent (y/y) should be possible. Although the link is not perfect, there is a correlation between a nation's stock market and its GDP growth.

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Bayu Krisnamurthi, President Director of the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund (BPDP-KS), said total exports of palm oil and its derivatives in the first quarter of 2016 reached 7.42 million tons. It is interesting to note that 87.2 percent of this total figure (or 6.47 million tons) comprises processed palm oil products, while the remainder consists of crude palm oil (CPO), implying that the downstreaming of the palm oil sector is developing smoothly. Krisnamurthi says the imposition of export levies on CPO has managed to encourage the development of downstream industries in the nation's palm oil sector.

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Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price continues to rise supported by the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes a dry spell in Southeast Asia, home to the world's largest palm oil plantations. As a result, CPO inventories in Malaysia may have declined to 2.11 million tons, an 11-month low in February 2016. Meanwhile, Singapore-based agribusiness trader Olam International Ltd said CPO stocks will decline to the range of 1.5 - 2.0 million tons in the second quarter of 2016. Obstacles to higher CPO prices are Malaysia's strengthening ringgit (which curtails demand for Malaysian palm oil) and attractive prices of soybean oil.

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The value of Indonesia's exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives plunged 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.6 billion in 2015 from USD $21.1 billion in the preceding year. However, in terms of volume, Indonesian exports of CPO and its derivatives actually rose 21.7 percent to 26.4 million tons. The higher volume but lower earnings are explained by the palm oil price. Palm oil traded at an average of USD $614.20 per ton in 2015, down 24.9 percent (y/y) from an average price of USD $818.20 per ton in 2014.

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Agribusiness company Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers, is expected to show a better performance in 2016 on an expected rise in palm oil prices. Although palm oil futures currently feel the negative effects of tumbling global crude oil prices, these futures are estimated to have risen to about 2,700 ringgit per ton by May 2016 from around 2,385 (approx. USD $540)  per ton currently.

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The world's two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters - Indonesia and Malaysia - signed an agreement on Saturday (21/11) for the establishment of an intergovernmental palm oil council, called the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries (CPOPC), that aims to control the global CPO supply, stabilize prices, promote sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, and enhance the welfare of oil palm smallholders. Both countries will invest USD $5 million each for the set up of this new council. Its headquarters will be located in Jakarta.

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Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters, will cooperate for the development of a special economic zone on Indonesian territory to boost the palm oil industry's downstream industry. Private companies will be given incentives to invest in this zone and develop industries to process CPO into olein, a key ingredient for the production of cosmetics and margarine. Furthermore, both countries plan to establish the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) output in Indonesia, the world’s largest CPO producer and exporter, may decline by 20 percent to 27.5 million tons in 2016 due to the negative impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. On a positive note, declining CPO output in Indonesia could provide some support for benchmark Malaysian palm prices that fell to a 6.5-year low of 1,836 ringgit last week.

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Although the Indonesian government has already announced that biodiesel subsidies have been raised to IDR 4,000 per liter (from IDR 1,500 per liter in 2014) and bioethanol to IDR 3,000 per liter (from IDR 2,000 last year) - in a move to protect the domestic biofuel industry as production costs exceed market prices amid the low global palm oil prices -, Indonesian biodiesel producers are eager to see the country’s biodiesel price is set based on a different benchmark than the Mean of Platts Singapore (MoPS).

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Malaysia, the world’s second-largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer and exporter, will continue its duty-free export tariff for CPO in January 2015 according to information from the Malaysian customs department. Starting from September 2014 Malaysian authorities have implemented a duty-free CPO export policy in an effort to boost global demand and support international CPO prices (which have fallen nearly 20 percent this year). Indonesia, which has seen duty-free CPO shipments since October 2014, is expected to follow suit.

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Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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