Indonesia’s Chief Economics Minister Sofyan Djalil said that Indonesia will further reduce prices of low-octane gasoline and subsidized diesel at the end of this month as global oil prices continue to fall (touching five-year lows). On 1 January 2015, the Indonesian government had already removed subsidy for widely-used low-octane gasoline (premium), while a fixed subsidy scheme was introduced for diesel (solar) meaning that the government now provides a subsidy of IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) per liter of diesel.

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Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Wednesday (07/01). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.66 percent to IDR 12,731 per US dollar by 15:50 pm local Jakarta time amid prolonged weak global sentiments. Falling oil prices signal sluggish global economic growth - with the exception of the US economy which is showing structural recovery and thus fuels expectation of higher US interest rates - and speculation that Greece may exit the Eurozone.

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Relative and absolute poverty in Indonesia have declined according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Friday (02/01). In September 2014, there were a total of 27.73 million Indonesians categorized as poor, or 10.96 percent of the total population. Both figures were down from 28.6 million people, or 11.46 percent in September last year (BPS releases data on Indonesian poverty twice per year covering the state of poverty in the months of March and September).

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On 28 December 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as rupiah exchange rate performance, a geothermal energy update, forecasts for Indonesia’s November trade balance and December inflation, as well as the breaking news story about the missing AirAsia airplane.

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The trade balance of Indonesia is expected to show another deficit in November 2014 as oil and gas imports in combination with weak commodity exports continue to plague the balance. However, Executive Director at the Economic and Monetary Policy Department of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) Juda Agung said that the deficit will most likely turn into a surplus soon. Still, another monthly trade deficit implies that the country’s wide current account deficit has few chances to improve markedly at the year-end.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia declined 15 percent to 91,449 vehicles in November 2014 (from the same month last year). Declining car sales in Southeast Asia’s largest economy are believed to be caused by the recent subsidized fuel price hike. In mid-November the Joko Widodo-led government raised prices of subsidized fuels (low-octane gasoline and diesel) over 30 percent in order to reduce state spending on fuel consumption and reallocate funds to structural economic and social development.

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Indonesia’s central bank decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at Thursday’s Board of Governors’ Meeting (11/12). The Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were kept at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. The central bank is convinced that the current interest rate levels are effective to combat short-term inflationary pressures (triggered by the implementation of higher subsidized fuel prices in mid-November) pushing it back to the target corridor of between 3 and 4 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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The central bank of Indonesia projects non-performing loans (NPL) to rise to 2.4 percent of the country’s total outstanding loans by the end of the year, significantly up from 1.8 percent at the end of last year. Despite the acceleration of bad loans in Indonesia, the institution stated that it is still manageable. Meanwhile, loan growth in Indonesia is estimated to slow to 11 or 12 percent (y/y) by the end of 2014 (the slowest pace since 2010), down from 21.4 percent (y/y) in 2013 primarily due to the central bank’s monetary tightening policy.

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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The latest survey of Indonesia’s central bank showed that consumer confidence fell slightly in November 2014 amid concern that the recent subsidized fuel price hike will lead to decreased business activity as well as reduced job availability in the next six months in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Bank Indonesia’s consumer confidence index fell to 120.1 points from 120.6 points in October. The institution interviewed 4,600 households in 18 major Indonesian cities for this survey.

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With the Ramadan month just having started, it is important to take a look at food prices in Indonesia. The Ramadan-Idul Fitri period is typically a period when prices rise amid a significant increase in demand.

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It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate ("BI seven-day reverse repo rate") by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent at the two-day policy meeting on 19 and 20 February 2020.

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On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.

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There is concern that the Indonesian government's plan to curb price increases of (non-subsidized) fuels in Indonesia will impact negatively on private investors' enthusiasm to invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry. Earlier this week Arcandra Tahar, Deputy Minister at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, informed that the government wants to regulate prices of fuels in order to keep inflation in check.

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The number of people who live in poverty in Indonesia fell by 1.19 million individuals, per September 2017, to 26.58 million, from 27.77 million poor people in March 2017 (Indonesia's Statistics Agency releases poverty data twice per year, covering the situation in the months March and September). This is a significant decline and therefore constitutes a very good development. In relative terms, Indonesia's poverty rate fell 0.52 percent from 10.64 percent to 10.12 percent (over the same period).

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Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.

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Bank Indonesia is content seeing Indonesia's inflation pace at a rather mild rate of 0.22 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2017. Dody Budi Waluyo, Executive Director of Economic and Monetary Policy at the central bank, said low and stable inflation is a positive asset for the economy as it supports the rupiah exchange rate as well as the investment climate and safeguards people's purchasing power.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) maintained its benchmark interest rate - the 7-day reverse repurchase rate - at 4.75 percent at the policy meeting on 17-18 May 2017, a decision that is in line with analysts' forecasts. Bank Indonesia said the decision is consistent with its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability "by driving the domestic economic recovery process", while continue to monitor external threats stemming from US policy directions and geopolitical conditions, specifically in the Korea Peninsula, as well as domestic threats stemming from inflationary pressures and ongoing consolidation in the banking and corporate sectors.

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It is highly unlikely to see the continuation of deflation in April. Last month (March 2017) Indonesia recorded 0.02 percent of deflation, primarily on the back of easing food prices amid the big harvest season. This harvest season will continue into April and therefore we expect few (to none) inflationary pressures stemming from food products. However, administered price adjustments (specifically another round of higher electricity tariffs in March) will impact of April's inflation figure, while consumer prices may also start to feel the impact of the approaching Ramadan month.

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