Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released various economic data today (01/10) - including inflation, the trade balance and manufacturing activity - that give a good indication about the state of the Indonesian economy. Although not all data was positive, market participants were content, evidenced by an appreciating rupiah exchange rate and rising Indonesian stocks. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.43 percent to IDR 12,135 per US dollar, while the Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.06 percent on Tuesday (01/10).

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Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) passed an important geothermal bill in a plenary session on Tuesday (26/08). This new bill is expected to be a great leap in the development of geothermal power in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Indonesia contains the world's largest geothermal energy reserves. However the country only uses a small fraction of this geothermal potential. Meanwhile, amid robust economic growth, the country is in serious need to provide more electricity and power to its people and businesses.

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Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be present at the official launch of four geothermal power plants (the Ulumbu, Ropa, Ndunga and Mataloko plants) on 11 September 2014 on Flores (East Nusa Tenggara). These plants will supply 20 megawatts of electricity to eight regencies on the island (West Manggarai, Manggarai, East Manggarai, Ngada, Nagekeo, Ende, Sikka and East Flores). Indonesia is estimated to have the world's largest geothermal energy reserves. However, the country only uses a fraction of its geothermal potential.

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Soon-to-be president of Indonesia Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) stated that he intends to cut the large fuel and electricity subsidies once in office. Indonesia’s Revised State Budget of 2015 (RAPBN 2015) allocates IDR 363.5 trillion (about USD $31.2 billion) to energy subsidies. This figure accounts for about 18 percent of total government spending (IDR 2,019.9 trillion) set for 2015. Although the energy subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society, they cause complex problems in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.  

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On 17 August 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of the rupiah exchange rate, plantations, Freeport Indonesia, economic growth, electricity, property, guidelines for the construction of a PT PMA, and more.

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Despite having abundant natural resources at its disposal (including coal and gas), Indonesia has difficulty to supply enough electricity to its people and businesses. Robust economic growth over the past decade has given rise to increased domestic demand for electricity but the country has not been able to adequately meet demand resulting in frequent blackouts and in one of the lowest electrification rates (the percentage of Indonesian households connected to the nation's electricity grid) in the region (about 80.4 percent at end-2013).

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Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the state-owned utility company that has a monopoly on the distribution of electricity in Indonesia, recorded a 158 percent growth (year-on-year) in net profit to IDR 12.3 trillion (USD $1.1 billion) in the first half of 2014 due to improved operational efficiency and a foreign-exchange gain of IDR 4.4 trillion (USD $376 million). Meanwhile, the company's revenue increased 24 percent to IDR 145.1 trillion (USD $12.4 billion) as electricity sales increased and PLN received more subsidies from the Indonesian government.

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Indonesian state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) said that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - is expected to nearly double domestic consumption of thermal coal over the next eight years in an attempt to meet the nation's growing electricity demand. Moreover, coal, of which the country has huge reserves at its disposal, is regarded a better fuel source in electricity generation compared to expensive diesel. At present, many power stations in Indonesia are still diesel-powered.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri expects that the higher electricity tariffs which may be introduced per 1 July 2014 (for 400-950 watt capacity) will have a relatively small impact on the pace of inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. “If introduced, the higher electricity price may add 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point to inflation. The limited impact of this price hike on Indonesian inflation means that the government will not revise its inflation target for 2014 yet,” Basri said. The Indonesian government targets an inflation growth rate of 5.3 to 5.5 percent.

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One of Indonesia's main fiscal problems is the ever increasing amount of public funds spent on energy subsidies (these include fuels and electricity subsidies). These subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society but several studies conclude that it are in fact the middle class and elite segments that benefit the most of these energy subsidies. Furthermore, by keeping energy prices artificially low, the government distorts the economy by creating a more-or-less 'false economy'.

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Indonesia needs to prepare for higher electricity tariffs as the government and House of Representatives (DPR) agreed on cutting electricity subsidies for 450 VA and 900 VA households starting from 1 January 2016. Indonesian authorities only want to provide electricity subsidies to the 24.7 million poorest Indonesian households. However, currently around 45.4 million Indonesians have connections of 450 VA and 900 VA.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled the last installment of a series of three stimulus packages on Wednesday (07/10). The first two installments had been unveiled last month. In general, these stimulus packages aim to boost economic growth of Indonesia (which has slowed to a six-year low) and restore investors' confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and stocks. When markets believed that the Federal Reserve would soon raise its key interest rate, Indonesia was plagued by severe capital outflows pushing the rupiah to a 17-year low.

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Indonesia is not the easiest place to invest for foreign investors. This is reflected by the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 index in which Indonesia ranks 120th. In a business forum, held last week in Beijing, Chinese businessmen expressed a number of matters that blocked or seriously delayed their investments in Indonesia. For Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) investment realization, particularly in infrastructure, is important as investments is considered the main driver for the country’s economic growth in 2016.

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Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.

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The Governor of Indonesia’s central bank, Agus Martowardojo, said that he expects inflation to accelerate to 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2014, significantly up from 4.83 percent y/y in the previous month. Accelerated inflation is caused by the multiplier effect triggered by the recent subsidized fuel price hike in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. On 18 November 2014, the government introduced higher prices for subsidized fuels in a bid to reallocate public spending from fuel consumption to structural development.

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The new Joko Widodo-led government aims to triple domestic geothermal power production within the next five years in an effort to meet ever-increasing power demand in the world’s fourth-most populous country and to shift to more environment friendly energy sources (rather than the over-reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and coal). Although Indonesia is estimated to contain the world's largest geothermal energy reserves, the country only uses about four percent of its geothermal capacity potential.

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President Joko Widodo’s unexpected visit to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/10) signals that the new president of Indonesia is serious about wiping out severe bureaucracy that causes time-consuming and difficult procedures to obtain permits, licenses and certificates in a bid to ease doing business in Indonesia for both foreign and domestic investors. Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is eager to tackle the country’s ‘red-tape’ problem as it curtails the pace of economic growth in Indonesia.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.

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Indonesian cement sales fell 0.4 percent (year-on-year) to 4.52 million tons in April 2014. The decline in cement sales was the result of the country’s legislative election that was held on 9 April 2014 as consumers bought few building materials during the campaign period. Head of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) Widodo Santoso stated that a number of large infrastructure projects are currently being tendered and are thus unable to boost domestic cement sales yet.

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In an attempt to attract investments in Indonesia's geothermal power sector, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to offer higher prices for geothermal-based electricity. Based on a recommendation from the World Bank, the new proposed geothermal-produced electricity price will range between 11.5 and 29 cents per KwH and will be effective until 2025. Currently, state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara pays between 10 and 18.5 cents per KwH to independent geothermal power producers (feed-in tariff).

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