Most Asian stocks are in the green zone on Monday morning (22/05), tracking Wall Street's performance on Friday where investors' attention shifted from recent political drama - related to US President Donald Trump - to good corporate earnings of Deere and Caterpillar. Meanwhile, rising crude oil ahead of the OPEC meeting on Friday (May 25, 2017) added positive sentiments to markets. Indonesia is again on track to finish at a new all-time record high.

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It is not a good day for stocks across the Asia-Pacific today. After US stocks on Wall Street tumbled overnight on persistent concerns about political stability in the USA - as President Donald Trump allegedly tried to interfere in a federal investigation by urging former FBI chief James Comey to end a probe into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn's ties with Russia - Asian stocks are following suit on Thursday (18/05).

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.56 percent to 5,615.49 points on Wednesday (17/05), in line with the performance of stocks across the Asia-Pacific region. The weak performance is caused by increasing concern about the controversial actions and policies of US President Donald Trump. After the emergence of several new scandals over the past couple of days more and more people assume Trump will not be able to finish his presidential term as calls for impeachment are heard.

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Stocks are under pressure in Asia on Friday morning (05/05) as metal prices continue to slide, while crude oil prices suffered their lowest close since November 2016 after a near five percent plunge yesterday on concerns of a US oil supply glut with analysts forecasting further losses, hence undermining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s earlier efforts to boost the oil price through production cut agreements (chances of seeing deeper cuts in OPEC nations are slim).

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The economies of Indonesia and other countries in Southeast Asia may feel the impact of US President Donald Trump's impending tax reforms. Currently markets are focused on these reforms. On Wednesday (26/04) Trump is set to propose steep cuts in US corporate taxes (from 35 percent to 15 percent) and the tax rate on offshore earnings that are repatriated (from 35 percent to 10 percent), while individual taxes will be simplified. These proposals will require US Congress approval before implementation.

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US Vice President Mike Pence plans to visit Indonesia next week. Indonesia is Pence's third stop during his April 15-25 Asia-Pacific tour. Aim of this short tour is to safeguard and enhance good relations with several Asia-Pacific nations, including Indonesia, as well as boosting regional security cooperation. However, there is plenty of resistance to Pence's visit to Indonesia. Some say he could better cancel the visit as the visit would put the Indonesian government in an awkward position.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell on Friday (07/04), in line with the performance of most Asian stock markets, after the USA attacked a Syrian air base with 59 cruise missiles in the early morning hours. This attack contributed to the "risk-off" sentiments in Asia today (with the exception of the Philippines where stocks rose on expectation of good GDP growth in Q1-2017). Indonesia's benchmark stock index fell 0.47 percent to 5,653.49 points at the week's last trading day.

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It was a good day for Indonesian stocks on Wednesday (29/03) as the nation's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) hit a new record high at 5.592.51 points, one day after Indonesian markets had been closed for a public holiday. Not only Indonesia but most Asian stocks rose on Wednesday - in line with expectations - following Wall Street higher overnight where the Trump stock rally seems back on track, especially after positive new economic data.

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As part of his Asia-Pacific tour, US Vice President Mike Pence plans to visit Indonesia in April 2017. Any dates have bot been finalized yet and therefore the tour has not been announced officially yet. However, an official within the administration of US President Donald Trump said Pence is making the Asia-Pacific tour next month in order safeguard and enhance good relations with several Asia-Pacific nations.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is also among the many institutions or market participants that expect the Federal Reserve to raise its Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the coming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (14-15 March 2017). This move should put some temporary pressure on the Indonesian rupiah (as Indonesia will most likely see capital outflows) and therefore Bank Indonesia sees few to none room for additional monetary easing in Southeast Asia's largest economy in the remainder of this year.

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Mike Pence, the Vice President of the United States, visited Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Thursday morning (20/04) at the presidential palace in Jakarta as part of Pence's Asia-Pacific tour (15-25 April 2017). Main goals of Pence's visit to several Asia-Pacific nations are to enhance diplomatic relations, improve regional security cooperation, and seek fairer trade. Pence arrived in Jakarta on Wednesday evening, directly from Japan where he emphasized US commitment to rein in North Korea's nuclear and missile ambitions.

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As promised US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an ambitious free trade deal that was signed in October 2015 (after five years of negotiating) and had created the world's largest free trade area (covering 12 countries and 40 percent of global trade). Trump's move to withdraw the USA from the TPP implies that he distances the USA from its Asian allies and gives China the opportunity to fill in the empty space that is left by America.

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While political leaders, bankers and economists met in Davos (Switzerland) for the World Economic Forum (17-20 January 2017), Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th US president in Washington. His speech was all about "America first", including a protectionist approach in trade, which Trump believes will lead to great prosperity and strength for the USA. Also in Europe anti-globalization sentiments are heard (such as the exit of Britain from the European Union). Most guests in Davos, on the contrary, favor higher global trade and worldwide economic participation.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged at the January 2017 policy meeting on Thursday (19/01). The benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility rates were maintained at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. The decisions of Bank Indonesia are in line with analysts' forecasts. Due to risks of capital outflows Indonesia's central bank had few room to ease monetary policy.

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Whether it was caused by pressure from the Indonesian government, or, whether US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase itself came to the conclusion that its decision to double downgrade Indonesia from overweight to underweight (in November 2016) was excessive remains unknown. What is known is that JP Morgan upgraded its investment recommendation on Indonesian stocks to neutral from underweight on Monday (16/01). Main reason for this upgrade is that redemption and bond volatility risks have now played out, in the view of JP Morgan.

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The government of Indonesia suspended all cooperation with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the US bank double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating too much on the exact motives behind this drastic move. According to Indonesian government officials this downgrade is excessive and lacks evidentiary support or rational justification. Moreover, they argue this "misleading" downgrade has a big psychological impact on investors and therefore it "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability".

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American multinational finance company Goldman Sachs Group Inc believes Indonesia currently has strong enough economic fundamentals to cope with monetary tightening in the USA. Indonesia is in a better position now compared to 2013 when the taper tantrum (the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program) led to massive capital outflows from emerging markets (and Indonesia was among the biggest victims with the rupiah weakening more than 25 percent against the US dollar in 2013).

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo said market participants should reduce their focus on the US dollar as benchmark for Indonesia's rupiah currency. Instead of the US dollar, it is better to use China's renminbi, the European Union's euro, or Japan's yen as a benchmark for the rupiah as these rates better reflect the fundamentals of Southeast Asia's largest economy. The rupiah has come under pressure against the US dollar after Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 US presidential election.

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Donald Trump becoming next US president in January 2017 will not affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia according to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). Trump's election caused a huge wave of uncertainty in financial markets worldwide. However, the BKPM remains committed to its investment realization targets (including both domestic and foreign direct investment) of IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $44.7 billion) in 2016 and IDR 631.5 trillion (approx. USD $47.5 billion) in 2017.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index experienced another tough day on Monday (14/11). After Indonesian stocks plunged 4.01 percent on Friday, stocks fell another 2.2 percent today. Not only Indonesia, but most Asian markets are hit by the selloff, particularly the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Investors are re-evaluating their emerging market assets now Donald Trump has been elected the next US president (and who can rely on a Republican-controlled US Congress). To make matters worse, current uncertainty is expected to persist in the next couple of months.

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