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Latest Reports Core Inflation
The latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) show that Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated more than we had expected. Indonesia’s consumer price index rose 0.28 percent month-on-month (m/m) in October 2018 and 3.16 percent year-on-year (y/y).
Indonesia's inflation rate was recorded at 0.28 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2018, slightly below estimates. Still, the country's annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.18 percent (y/y) in July, from 3.12 percent in the preceding month.
Indonesian inflation was mild at 0.59 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2018, a month in which rising consumption amid the latter half of the Ramadan month and subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations gives rise to inflationary pressures in the world's largest Muslim-majority nation. On an annual basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 3.12 percent (y/y), down from 3.23 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
Indonesian inflation was slightly below estimates at 0.21 percent month-on-month (m/m) in May 2018 because food price increases were modest amid the Islamic fasting month (Ramadan), a period when consumption (hence demand for food) tends to rise. Although the Muslim community fasts during daytime, in the morning and evening many food parties are organized and therefore, overall, consumption rises during Ramadan and the subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
The pace of Indonesia's headline inflation was recorded at 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April 2018, a relatively high pace compared to April inflation in recent years. However, compared to the preceding month (when the consumer price index rose 0.20 percent m/m) Indonesian inflation eased. Meanwhile, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis inflation accelerated modestly to 3.41 percent (y/y) from 3.40 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Calendar-year inflation accumulated to 1.09 percent in the first four months of 2018.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the nation's headline inflation rose 0.20 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March 2018 especially due to a rise in prices of fuel and spices. Meanwhile, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia's inflation rate accelerated to 3.40 percent in the third month of the year, up from 3.18 percent (y/y) in the preceding month but still comfortably within the central bank's target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent (y/y) for full-year 2018.
The Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that Indonesia's headline inflation reached 0.17 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February 2018. This is a lower inflation rate compared to February 2017 (+0.23 percent m/m), hence the country's annual headline inflation eased to 3.18 percent (y/y) in February 2018, from 3.25 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
Annual headline inflation in Indonesia eased to 3.25 percent year-on-year (y/y) in January 2018, from 3.61 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. The decline in Indonesian inflation was slightly steeper than had been estimated by analysts. The latest consumer price index data were released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) just before noon on Thursday (01/02).
Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) finished the year 2017 at the level of 3.61 percent year-on-year (y/y), slightly higher than analysts' forecasts but well within the government's full-year inflation target of 4.3 percent. Indonesian full-year 2017 inflation was the nation's highest annual inflation since 2014 when inflation surged to 8.36 percent (y/y) due to fuel subsidy reforms.
Indonesian inflation eased further in November 2017. Based on the latest official announcement of Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released on Monday morning (04/12), inflation was recorded at 0.20 percent month-on-month (m/m) in November, a relatively low figure for November inflation if we compare it to November inflation figures in recent years (see table below).
Latest Columns Core Inflation
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday morning (04/05) that Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 6.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015. On a month-to-month basis, Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.36 percent in April. Although this result is in line with analysts’ previous projections, April inflation realization is in sharp contrast with the ‘usual’ inflation pace in the fourth month of the year. Usually, Indonesia records slight deflation in April as prices ease amid the peak of the harvest season.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded monthly inflation of 0.17 percent in March 2015. It was the first month this year in which Indonesia recorded inflation. In January and February Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.24 percent (m/m) and 0.36 (m/m), respectively. March inflation was primarily the result of administered price adjustments: higher prices of (low-octane) gasoline, diesel and 12-kg LPG canisters. These adjustments were necessary amid rising oil prices and rupiah depreciation.
According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's balance of trade in April 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $1.96 billion, after having recorded a surplus of USD $0.67 billion in March. The balance of trade performance in April 2014 was particularly affected by the country's non-oil & gas balance, which turned from a surplus into a deficit, whereas a lower deficit in the oil & gas trade balance was realized (compared to March 2014). Meanwhile, inflation in May 2014 was slightly higher at 0.16 percent (mtm) from the previous month.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that the country's inflation outcome in April 2014 is further evidence of a continuing downward trend. In fact, Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) in April recorded deflation of -0.02 percent month-to-month (mtm) or 7.25 percent year-on-year (yoy), thus easing compared to 0.08 percent (mtm) of inflation or 7.32 percent (yoy) in March 2014. Since January 2014, Indonesia has now recorded moderating inflation, both on a monthly and annual basis.
The rate of Indonesian inflation eased in February 2014. Inflation decelerated in February 2014 to 0.26 percent (month-to-month) or 7.75 percent (year-on-year), down from the previous month at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) respectively. The drop in the inflation rate is attributable to central and local government policy taken to minimize the second-round effects of recent natural disasters, thereby bringing the inflation of volatile foods in the reporting month to just 0.32 percent (mtm) or 9.85 percent (yoy).
The pace of Indonesia's monthly January inflation rate was higher in 2014 than in the same month during the past five years. This relatively high inflation rate this year, recorded at 1.07 percent, was caused by severe rainfall and floods in several parts of Indonesia (particularly in the cities of Jakarta and Manado) amid the peak of the rainy season. These weather-related circumstances impacted on prices of food products as distribution channels were disrupted, thus giving rise to increasing prices. Annual inflation, however, slightly eased.
The inflation rate of Indonesia rose slightly in November 2013 (month-to-month) and confirms estimations that inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy is under control after having accelerated sharply due to the introduction of higher subsidized fuel prices June 2013. In recent months, inflation moved sideways and is expected to ease considerably in the first quarter of 2014. Indonesia's consumer price index rose 0.12 percent in November due to rising electricity, processed foods and health care costs.
Indonesia's October inflation rate was well-received by investors. On Friday (01/11), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the country's inflation in October 2013 grew 0.09 percent. Easing inflation was mainly due to falling prices of raw foods and clothes. Year-on-year (yoy), however, Indonesia's inflation is still high at 8.32 percent, although showing a moderating trend from 8.40 percent (yoy) in September 2013 and 8.79 percent (yoy) in August 2013. Inflation had skyrocketed after subsidized fuel prices were raised by an average 33 percent in June.
After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.
Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, expects deflation of about 0.9 percent in September 2013. Statistics Indonesia, on the other hand, believes there will be limited inflation this month. Both institutions agree, however, on a forecast of at least 9 percent of inflation over full-year 2013. The bank's September forecast is based on a survey that was conducted in the second week of September. This survey showed that food commodities and government administered prices eased.
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