The selling price of Indonesia's low cost green car (LCGC) has become more and more expensive. Initially, this type of car was launched on the Indonesian market in order to offer the people an affordable and relatively environment friendly car. However, rising selling prices of the LCGC and weaker purchasing power amid Indonesia's slowing economic growth trend that occurred since 2011 has made it harder for Indonesia's middle class to purchase a LCGC.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia are expected to rebound in the second half of 2016 in line with Indonesia's improving macro-economy. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), is optimistic that the small drop in Indonesia's February car sales is a sign that the sales decline is stabilizing. In February 2016 a total of 88,250 cars were sold in Indonesia, down 0.6 percent (y/y) from car sales in the same month one year earlier. Fitch Ratings also expects Indonesian car sales to rebound this year.

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An improvement has been detected in Indonesia's car sales. According to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) car sales in Indonesia totaled 88,250 units in February 2016. Although this figure is 0.6 percent down from sales in the same month one year earlier, the percentage fall is the slowest since August 2014. Noegardjito, Secretary of Gaikindo, said this limited decline came on the back of Indonesia's improving economy. However, February was still the 18th consecutive month of contracting car sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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On 28 February 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's 11th economic policy package, the mineral ore export ban, the automotive industry, financial results of Astra International and Kalbe Farma, radical Islam, hot money, and more.

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Despite car sales having slowed significantly in Indonesia, there are at least three automotive companies eager to invest a combined IDR 21 trillion (approx. USD $1.6 billion) to expand production capacity in Indonesia this year (either by establishing a new factory or enhancing production capacity at existing plants). In 2015 car sales in Indonesia fell 16.1 percent (year-on-year) to 1.01 million vehicles, the nation's lowest car sales figure since 2011. However, Indonesia remains the second-largest car market and producer in the ASEAN region, after Thailand.

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Although it was no surprise to hear that American car manufacturer Ford Motor Company decided to exit Japan, few expected the car giant to leave Indonesia. On Monday (25/01), Ford Motor Company announced it will have closed its sales operations in Indonesia and Japan by the end of 2016. This decision came nearly one year after American multinational corporation General Motors Company (GM) decided to shut down its Chevrolet Spin production plant in Indonesia. Why do major American (and European) car manufacturers have difficulty to tap the Indonesian car market?

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American car manufacturer Ford Motor Company decided to close all of its operations in Indonesia and Japan in 2016 due to the lack of prospects for profit in both countries. Ford spokeswoman Karen Hampton said this decision will result in the layoffs of 35 Ford staff-members in Indonesia and 292 employees in Japan. Business operations in Indonesia - which include the import of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, sales and dealerships offices - will be shut down later this year. Ford's production base in Japan will be shifted elsewhere.

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In line with expectations and the general trend so far this year, Indonesian car sales fell 4.4 percent to 87,311 units in November 2015. In the January-November 2015 period, the country's total car sales reached 940,317 units, down 16.7 percent from car sales in the same period last year. The main cause of this weak performance is Indonesians' weakened purchasing power amid the country's economic slowdown, high inflation (in the first three quarters of the year), and low commodity prices.

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New York-based Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, expects demand growth in Indonesia's life and non-life insurance sectors to occur over the medium term on the country's (currently still) low insurance penetration rate, improving risk awareness, and the expanding middle class segment within the rising population of Southeast Asia's largest economy. Meanwhile, the credit rating agency believes Indonesia's car and motorcycle sales will remain under pressure in 2016 due to weak consumer spending.

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Production of cars in Indonesia is expected to decline 15 percent (y/y) to an estimated 1.1 million vehicles in 2015, far below the target (1.6 million vehicles) set in the automotive industry roadmap desinged by the Indonesian Industry Ministry. This drop is due to the slowdown in car sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Slowing economic growth, which dragged down Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to a six-year low, resulted in weakening purchasing power of Indonesian consumers.

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The performance of Astra International, one of Indonesia's leading diversified conglomerates (but particularly known for being the dominant force in the country's automotive industry), is expected to improve next year on the arrival of new car models, estimated accelerated economic growth and its rivals' stagnating production capacity expansion. As such, Astra International should be able to increase its market share and feel less need to offer its cars to customers at discounted rates.

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Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.

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Indonesian automotive group Indomobil Sukses Internasional is facing challenges in 2015. The listed company, affiliated with the Salim Group (one of Indonesia’s largest conglomerates), is plagued by intense competition in the car industry of Indonesia, while it also feels the negative impact of the weak rupiah (which is depreciating against the US dollar). Over 2014, the company posted a net loss of IDR 128.2 billion (USD $9.9 million), down significantly from net profit of IDR 532.5 billion it recorded in the preceding year.

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Mahendra Siregar, Head of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) is optimistic that realized investment in Indonesia can reach over IDR 100 trillion (USD $8.6 billion) in the first quarter of 2014, particularly supported by foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country's automotive and electronics sectors. Siregar uttered his optimistic view at the groundbreaking of the new Toyota factory in Karawang (West Java) on Tuesday (25/02). Foreign investors remain buoyant on the potential of Indonesia's rapidly expanding consumer force.

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Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.

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Indonesia's automotive industry experienced some drastic changes in recent years. Originally regarded as a mere production hub due to cheap productions costs (particularly wages), it changed into a major car sales market as per capita GDP continues to grow and gives rise to an expanding middle class. Since 2011, domestic car sales in Indonesia have reached record highs and given that the country's per capita car ownership is still relatively low, there is room for more growth. But Indonesia is also eager to become an important car exporting country.

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In 2014, Indonesia is expected to see capital inflow of between USD $1 billion and USD $1.5 billion of funds for investments in the country's car components industry. About 20 to 30 companies are eager to expand or start business in this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy (each investing about USD $50 million). Indonesia's car industry is attractive due to record high car sales in recent years (triggered by strong domestic GDP per capita growth) as well as double-digit export growth (although coming from a low base).

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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General Motors Company (GM), the American multinational holding corporation that engages in the automotive industry, aims to expand its partnership with China's SAIC Motor Corp by joining hands to enhance business activities in Indonesia. Recently, speculation emerged that both companies were drifting apart. However, both camps claim that the relationship has never been better. In fact, GM China and SAIC are opening four new plants in China which will add 1 million cars (per year) to the current production capacity of 3 million vehicles.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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