Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which was launched in July 2016 and will run until 31 March 2017, can be labeled a success. Up to 16 October 2016, a total of IDR 3,842.9 trillion (approx. USD $296 billion) worth of assets (either at home or abroad) have been declared to Indonesia's tax authorities nearly achieving the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion. However, asset repatriations (from the so-called tax havens) are not a success, being far from the government's initial projection and therefore Indonesian authorities are now easing regulations.

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The first phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on Friday (30/09). Contrary to earlier forecasts the first phase of the program can be labeled a success. The Indonesian government collected IDR 97.2 trillion (approx. USD $7.5 billion) in additional tax revenue, or 58.9 percent of the nine-month program's full target (IDR 165 trillion). Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which runs up to 31 March 2017, is divided in three phases. In the first phase the government offered the most attractive tax tariffs to taxpayers who declare and/or repatriate their previously unreported assets.

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Contrary to our earlier predictions, Indonesia's tax amnesty program has been on a roll in September 2016. The program is designed to boost the government's tax revenue by offering tax evaders attractive rates to come clean and declare their previously undeclared assets (whether stashed at home or abroad in the so-called tax havens). Those who join the program can also repatriate offshore assets into Indonesia, into specifically prepared investment instruments where the funds need to stay for at least three years.

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Realization of non-oil & gas tax revenue reached IDR 705 trillion (approx. USD $54 billion) up to 26 September 2016, or 53.5 percent of the full-year non-oil & gas revenue target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (IDR 1,318.9 trillion). Ken Dwijugiasteadi, the Finance Ministry’s Taxation Director General, said bleak non-oil & gas tax revenue realization is partly the result of lower income tax and value-added tax realization generated from imports. Both Indonesia's import and export performance have been declining for nearly two years.

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According to reports in Indonesian media, President Joko Widodo is willing to extend the deadline for the first phase of the government's tax amnesty program. Originally, this first phase, which sets the most attractive tax rates for those who decide to declare previously undeclared assets and - if desired - repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia, was designed to end on 30 September 2016. Rosan Roslani, Chairman of Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia), said Widodo is willing to extend the deadline on request of Indonesia's business community.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was at a court hearing in Jakarta on Tuesday (20/09) to defend the legality of the nation's tax amnesty program. In July 2016 legal activists, gathered within the One Justice Foundation (Yayasan Satu Keadilan) and Indonesian People's Struggle Union (Serikat Perjuangan Rakyat Indonesia), filed for a judicial review at the Constitutional Court claiming that the program turns money laundering into a legal practice, protects criminals, teaches Indonesian citizens not to pay taxes, and constitutes an unfair program from a social point of view.

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The first period of Indonesia’s tax amnesty program is almost completed. This first period, which runs from July to 31 September 2016, offers the most attractive tax rates to those taxpayers who have not fulfilled their tax obligations in recent years. Through the government’s tax amnesty program they can declare previously undeclared assets and – if they have assets abroad (for example in the so-called tax havens) – they are encouraged to repatriate these funds into Indonesia through attractive tax incentives and immunity from prosecution, a move that met resistance in Singapore.

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The governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, stated that he has become highly skeptical about the government's tax amnesty program that was launched in July. At a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday (07/09), Martowardojo said the central bank only expects to see IDR 21 billion (approx. USD $1.6 billion) in additional tax revenue through the amnesty program for the state and only USD $13.8 billion in repatriated funds. These new projections are significantly below the central bank's earlier projections.

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A total of 62 "big taxpayers" have joined Indonesia's tax amnesty program. According to local media their participation has resulted in a total of IDR 41.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.1 billion) worth of fund declarations and IDR 902 billion (approx. USD $68 million) in additional state revenue (tax). Meanwhile, the Tax Directorate General said there are more big Indonesian taxpayers ready to join the program. The tax office has formed a special team that calls the country's large businessmen on a daily basis to remind them about the tax amnesty program and their tax obligations.

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The ambitious tax amnesty program of the Indonesian government received support from three influential Indonesian businessmen. The first, James Riady, Chief Executive of the Lippo Group (and son of Mochtar Riady, the founding father of this huge conglomerate), joined the program by handing over his tax declaration documents to Indonesia's Tax Office on Friday (02/09). This declaration took place in front of an audience consisting of Indonesian press and therefore may cause some momentum for the controversial program that experienced a sloppy start.

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Although realization of most components in Indonesia's state budget have improved in 2017, tax revenue realization and the management of energy subsidies remain the two big challenges for the Indonesian government. Southeast Asia's largest economy again failed to meet its tax revenue target last year. Per 31 December 2017 it collected IDR 1,151.5 trillion (approx. USD $85.3 billion) in tax revenue, only 89.74 percent of the target (excluding customs and excise).

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Indonesia may see a IDR 120 trillion (approx. USD $8.8 billion) tax shortfall in 2017. The Indonesian government set a IDR 1,472.7 trillion (approx. USD $109 billion) tax revenue target (including customs and duties) in full-year 2017. However, up to 15 December only IDR 1,211.5 trillion has been collected. Traditionally Indonesia delivers a tax shortfall at the end of the year. This is expected to continue in 2018.

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Every year Indonesia's Tax Office adjusts the excise tax on tobacco products. The adjustment is always made in consideration of the central government's tax revenue targets as well as the input of specific stakeholders (including pro-health lobby groups, or groups that defend the interests of tobacco manufacturers or farmers).

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Although the amount remains a secret, the government of Indonesia and Alphabet's Google finally managed to reach an agreement on the tax settlement after a long dispute that started in mid-2016. The news was confirmed by Indonesian Finance Ministry Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The dispute started because Indonesian authorities felt the so-called "over-the-top content" giants, referring to those companies that deliver content through Internet, deliberately did not set up permanent establishments in Indonesia in order to avoid taxes. Besides Google, other examples are Yahoo, Facebook and Twitter.

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The government of Indonesia listened to the criticism that emerged after it decided to set a rather low threshold for bank accounts that are to become subject to the automatic bank information exchange program. Through Finance Ministry regulation PMK No. 70/PMK.03/2017 Indonesia's tax authorities obtain access to information on accounts held at financial institutions, including bank accounts. This new regulation makes it possible to check whether tax payers indeed fulfill their tax obligations.

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There exists some resistance against the Indonesian government's recently announced regulation that gives tax authorities access to information on accounts held at financial institutions, including bank accounts. The regulation aims to contribute to a more transparent financial system as well as to boost the government's tax revenue realization (tax evaders will need to be more careful now authorities can monitor private and corporate bank accounts).

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Indonesia's Tax Office now has more power to check whether people and companies indeed pay taxes. Last week the Indonesian government basically scrapped the existence of banking data secrecy by introducing a new regulation that gives the nation's tax authorities access to information on accounts held at financial institutions, including bank accounts. The new regulation should contribute to a more transparent financial system and boost the government's (much-need) tax revenue realization. However, Indonesian parliament still needs to approve the new regulation.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 March 2017, so now it is time to take a look at the results. Although Indonesia's amnesty program has been labelled as one of the most - if not the most - successful amnesty programs ever around the globe (in terms of asset declarations), there is plenty of room for disappointment. Based on data from Indonesia's Tax Office, less than one million Indonesians joined the program. For many nations this would be a great number. For Indonesia this number means tax evasion remains rampant, implying the government misses out on much-needed tax revenue.

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Indonesia's tax amnesty program will end soon. The nine-month program was designed to finish on 31 March 2017. Although the program has become the world's most successful tax amnesty program, it will fail to solve Indonesia's tax revenue collection problems. And with tax revenue being the largest source for public spending capacity, low tax compliance in Southeast Asia's largest economy obstructs more rapid development of the Indonesian economy.

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Indonesia's budget deficit in 2016 is estimated to have reached 2.46 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), below the government's forecast of 2.7 percent of GDP and at a safe distance from the legal cap of 3.0 percent of GDP that is stipulated by Indonesian law. This is a positive matter that is supported by modestly growing tax revenue. In full-year 2016 tax revenue realization reached IDR 1,105.2 trillion (approx. USD $83 billion), only 81.6 percent of the target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (APBN-P 2016) but slightly higher than tax revenue realization in the preceding year.

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