There will not be a rebound in the coal industry anytime soon. Indonesia, one of the world's leading (thermal) coal producers and exporters, says the nation's coal output will continue to decline in 2016 and 2017. This continued decline in production is caused by the decision of smaller miners to cease production amid the globe's low coal prices that touched a decade-low earlier this year. There should occur a positive side-effect, however, if miners indeed cut their output and that is upward support for coal prices.

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On 24 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic matters such as Joko Widodo's visit to Europe, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, Indonesia's Gini ratio, the palm oil and coal sectors, foreign ownership of property in Indonesia, the problems surrounding infrastructure spending in Indonesia, and more.

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Australia-based BHP Billiton, the multinational firm engaged in copper, iron, gold, and coal mining, is reportedly considering to stop operations at its Indonesian coal mining sites - or even to sell these assets - due to the unattractive outlook for the global coal price. Through a 75 percent stake in IndoMet Coal, BHP Billiton holds seven (long-standing) Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) in Central Kalimantan. The company is now conducting a strategic review of all its business operations (including the Indonesian assets) to determine which direction to take.

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Coal shipments between Indonesia and the Philippines are disrupted by the recent series of incidents that occurred in the seas off the coast of the southern Philippines. Two Indonesian coal ports are now (temporarily) disallowing Indonesian ships from transporting coal to the Philippines. Security concerns heightened after members of the militant Al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf network (based in the southwestern part of the Philippines) captured 18 Indonesians and Malaysians in three separate ship hijackings in recent weeks. It is feared that the waters around the southern Philippines become the new Somalia.

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On 17 April 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve hot topics and economic matters such as an update on GDP growth, Bank Indonesia's new benchmark monetary tool, the palm oil sector, the coal price, the trade balance, an excise tax on plastic items, and more.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects the coal price to remain stable around USD $50 per ton in the remainder of 2016. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, rose 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $52.32 per ton in April 2016. Since February the HBA has been climbing in three consecutive months. The last time Indonesia's benchmark coal price recorded a three-month gaining streak was in the October-December 2013 period.

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The world's number one privately-owned coal producer, US-based Peabody Energy Corp, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday (13/04) after its debt burden became too high amid recent expansion efforts, a cancelled asset sale, and slumping coal prices. All of the miner's offices and mines will continue operations as usual during the bankruptcy process. The case of Peabody Energy is one of the world's largest ever bankruptcy cases in the commodities sector. Trading of Peabody Energy's shares has been suspended immediately.

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Having been the center of negative attention for quite some years now, Indonesia's coal mining sector has given some room for speculation that conditions will improve. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and mostly based on the average of global coal prices, rose 1.3 percent (m/m) to USD $51.62 per ton in March 2016. Although it is much too early to start speculating about a sustained rebound, the increase is remarkable as it is the first time in exactly one year that the HBA manages to rise.

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On 13 March 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the performance of Indonesian blue chip stocks, the impact of negative interest rates in the Eurozone, logistics costs, coal mining, crude palm oil, Japanese investment, and more.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) advises the central government to recalculate the amount of coal required for Indonesia's 35,000 MW power plant program. According to APBI, Indonesia does not have enough coal reserves to serve as power source for this ambitious program. The program, launched by President Joko Widodo in 2015, aims to add a total of 35,000 MW to the nation's power capacity by 2019 (about 20,000 MW being coal-fired plants). PriceWaterhouseCoopers states that Indonesia may have depleted its coal reserves by the year 2033.

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Amid rising mining commodity prices, Indonesian coal mining company Adaro Energy saw its share price surge at the start of 2018. The mining index is actually the best-performing index so far this year in Indonesia, rising 13.58 percent since the start of the year. Being a mining company - or more precisely an energy company (as it recently entered the power generation sector) - Adaro Energy is among the major beneficiaries.

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A number of listed coal mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are eager to raise production capacity amid attractive coal prices. One way to boost production capacity is through the acquisition of other coal miners. Indonesia's key thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - the monthly benchmark price that is set by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - rose slightly to USD $94.80 per metric ton in November 2017.

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Foreign exchange earnings are important assets for a national economy. Therefore, many nations have recently been taking a much more protectionist approach vis-à-vis trade in an effort to strengthen their trade positions, generate trade surpluses, hence see the inflow of more foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange assets support a stable local currency as well as economy.

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Sales of United Tractors, the largest distributor of heavy equipment in Indonesia and part of the Astra Group, continue to climb in 2017. In fact, the management of United Tractors now expects full-year 2017 sales to exceed their initial forecast. Sara Loebis, Corporate Secretary of United Tractors, said the company has therefore raised its forecast for full-year heavy equipment unit sales from 3,000 to 3,200 units.

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Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.

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The recently rallying coal price is a major boost for leading Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy. Mirae Asset Sekuritas noted in a new report that Adaro Energy is in a great position to book higher corporate earnings in the years ahead because the miner's structure (and subsidiaries) are highly integrated and therefore it can more-or-less control the costs and risks in each business stage.

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The soaring benchmark thermal coal price of the Indonesian government (called harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, should boost earnings of listed Indonesian coal miner Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam in 2017. The HBA price nearly doubled to USD $102 per metric ton in December from the year-start. Besides the rising coal price, the company should also see improving corporate earnings due to its expected rising sales volume.

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The sharply rallying coal price in the second half of 2016 and its strong cash position (a sign of financial strength and liquidity) is the right recipe for listed Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy to post strong corporate earnings this year. In fact, Indonesian securities company Trimegah Securities believes that Harum Energy is the coal miner that will benefit the most of all listed coal miners on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) because 95 percent of its coal sales is sold on the spot market.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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