While global coal prices continue to slide, there emerged some support as Indonesia is estimated to consume more coal in 2016 in its coal-fired power plants. According to Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, domestic consumption of coal will rise 7.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 86 million tons in 2016 from 79.8 million tons in 2015. The ministry set the domestic market obligation (DMO), the minimum amount of coal that Indonesia's coal producers need to supply to the local market, at 86 million tons. The DMO is set to ensure sufficient power generation in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Indonesia's commodity-rich East Kalimantan is one of the worst affected Indonesian provinces in terms of global trade and weak commodity prices. East Kalimantan's export performance is heavily dependent on prices of oil, natural gas and coal. In 2015 the total value of East Kalimantan's exports plunged 30.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $18.3 billion from USD $26.35 billion in the preceding year. Since 2011 the province's exports have posted a consecutive annual decline in line with the declining trend of commodity prices.

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On 21 February 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as new rules regarding banks' net interest margin, an update on Indonesia's trade balance, interest rates, the 2016 State Budget, the coal industry, the cement industry, and more.

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Trouble for Indonesian coal miners will not end soon as India - one of the world's leading coal consumers - is eager to boost domestic production of coal thus reducing the need for coal imports. This has given additional downward pressure on global coal prices. Over the past 11 months Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly reference price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, has been on a streak of continuously falling prices. The February 2016 rate was set at USD $50.92 per ton, a far cry from USD $111.58 per ton in February 2012.

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There remains little hope to see rebounding coal prices soon. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, fell another 4.29 percent month-to-month (m/m) to a new record low of USD $50.92 per metric ton (FOB) in February 2016 from USD $53.20 in the preceding month. Coal prices have difficulty to rise amid low crude oil and gas prices, while renewable energy sources are gaining popularity. Meanwhile, demand from China and India for Indonesian coal is falling.

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As the coal mining industry will not rebound anytime soon, Adaro Energy, the second-largest producer of thermal coal in Indonesia, has to find another strategy to make a profitable business. Income coal sales has weakened but the company's mining services and logistics segments have been growing. Meanwhile, the company has been expanding to the downstream power generation industry. Not coal, but power generation may be the center of a new super-cycle in Indonesia as the government aims to see the construction of 35,000 megawatts (MW) of power plants in the next five years.

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On 24 January 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as foreign direct investment as well as updates on various industries such as coal mining, palm oil, geothermal power, oil & gas, cement, ceramics, 4G technology, and more.

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Indonesia turned into a net oil importer in 2004 as domestic oil output declined sharply while domestic fuel consumption surged amid the growing economy (hence becoming more and more dependent on oil imports). Prior to 2016, the Indonesian government provided generous energy subsidies (for fuel and electricity), resulting in a deteriorating budget deficit, trade deficit, current account deficit, and pressure on the rupiah. Moreover, government spending on energy consumption limited room for government spending on productive sectors such as infrastructure and social development.

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Domestic consumption of coal in Indonesia rose 14.8 percent (y/y) to 87.43 million tons in 2015 according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. This figure is considerably higher than the government's target of 70 million tons. Adhi Wibowo, Director for Coal at the Energy Ministry, said this increase is caused by higher electricity demand in domestic industries in the second half of 2015. Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal production reached 392 million tons in full-year 2015, below the government target at 425 million tons.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources expects coal shipments to India to rise in 2016, while coal exports to China are expected to decline further as the world's second-largest economy is experiencing a persistent slowdown (and China curbed imports of coal with a lower calorie grade). Adhi Wibowo, Director for Coal at the Energy Ministry, said - contrary to China - coal demand from India has not fallen. Moreover, India is highly dependent on Indonesia for its thermal coal.

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Amid rising mining commodity prices, Indonesian coal mining company Adaro Energy saw its share price surge at the start of 2018. The mining index is actually the best-performing index so far this year in Indonesia, rising 13.58 percent since the start of the year. Being a mining company - or more precisely an energy company (as it recently entered the power generation sector) - Adaro Energy is among the major beneficiaries.

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A number of listed coal mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are eager to raise production capacity amid attractive coal prices. One way to boost production capacity is through the acquisition of other coal miners. Indonesia's key thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - the monthly benchmark price that is set by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - rose slightly to USD $94.80 per metric ton in November 2017.

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Foreign exchange earnings are important assets for a national economy. Therefore, many nations have recently been taking a much more protectionist approach vis-à-vis trade in an effort to strengthen their trade positions, generate trade surpluses, hence see the inflow of more foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange assets support a stable local currency as well as economy.

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Sales of United Tractors, the largest distributor of heavy equipment in Indonesia and part of the Astra Group, continue to climb in 2017. In fact, the management of United Tractors now expects full-year 2017 sales to exceed their initial forecast. Sara Loebis, Corporate Secretary of United Tractors, said the company has therefore raised its forecast for full-year heavy equipment unit sales from 3,000 to 3,200 units.

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Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.

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The recently rallying coal price is a major boost for leading Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy. Mirae Asset Sekuritas noted in a new report that Adaro Energy is in a great position to book higher corporate earnings in the years ahead because the miner's structure (and subsidiaries) are highly integrated and therefore it can more-or-less control the costs and risks in each business stage.

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The soaring benchmark thermal coal price of the Indonesian government (called harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, should boost earnings of listed Indonesian coal miner Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam in 2017. The HBA price nearly doubled to USD $102 per metric ton in December from the year-start. Besides the rising coal price, the company should also see improving corporate earnings due to its expected rising sales volume.

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The sharply rallying coal price in the second half of 2016 and its strong cash position (a sign of financial strength and liquidity) is the right recipe for listed Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy to post strong corporate earnings this year. In fact, Indonesian securities company Trimegah Securities believes that Harum Energy is the coal miner that will benefit the most of all listed coal miners on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) because 95 percent of its coal sales is sold on the spot market.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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