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On 5 February 2025, the Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) was recorded at a growth rate of 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024. In another article in this month’s edition, we devote an analysis concerning Indonesia’s 2024 GDP growth.
Ever since the second half of 2023 car sales in Indonesia have been quite disappointing. While in recent years Indonesia had become used to seeing more than one million cars being sold across the country per year (excluding the COVID-19 crisis period), sales now seem to have stabilized around 850,000 units per year in the 2024-2025 period.
In last month’s report we saw that Indonesia’s official economic growth rate was (in line with expectations) quite strong at 5.11 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2024. Moreover, last month we also saw that most of the macroeconomic data point at the continuation of strong growth in Q2-2024 (with the only major exception being the country’s car sales data that still showed deep red numbers).
On Sunday (04.02.2024) Indonesia Investments released the January 2024 edition of its monthly report. The report offers analyses of various economic, political and social topics that are relevant in the present.
At the annual meeting of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) at the very end of November 2023, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the central bank is optimistic about accelerating economic growth in the next two years (2024 – 2025).
Like with most sectors, the automotive sector of Indonesia received a wave of fresh air as most of the COVID-19-related social and business restrictions were scrapped by the government at the end of 2022. And, when the government also scrapped the vaccine-booster requirement for traveling into, and across, the country in June 2023 we can argue that the COVID-19 crisis is truly over.
The risky decision of Indonesia’s central government and regional governments to (gradually) ease the various self-imposed social and business restrictions (that had been imposed in April 2020) has caused changes in economic activity in Indonesia, particularly in consumer behavior, starting from June 2020.
Also in 2017 Indonesia remained the biggest car sales market as well as the second-biggest car producer in the ASEAN region. Total car sales in ASEAN grew 5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 3.3 million in 2017. Indonesia contributed almost one-third to the total. However, Thailand remains the dominant car manufacturer in the region, producing nearly 2 million vehicles in 2017.
Although it proves difficult for Indonesian car manufacturers to export their output to overseas markets, reflected by the declining number of local car exporters (declining from eight in 2013 to five at the start of 2018), Indonesia's car shipments have been rising steadily over the past five years. However, in absolute terms the figure remains modest with 231,169 exported car units from Indonesia in full-year 2017.
Indonesia's car sales rose 11.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 95,892 vehicles (wholesale) in January 2018 according to the latest data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo). This is a very promising start of the year as the January 2018 car sales figure is the highest January figure since 2014.
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One of the leading diversified conglomerates in Indonesia, Astra International, is facing challenges. Demand for cars has been on the decline in Indonesia over the past two years. This is a big challenge for the company because the automotive sector accounts for about half of Astra's total earnings. Meanwhile, its heavy equipment & mining segment and the financial services segment have been under severe pressure. Net income in the heavy equipment & mining segment plunged 55 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016, while net income in the financial services segment tumbled 46 percent (y/y) over the same period.
Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates and regarded the barometer of the Indonesian economy due to the company's presence in most sectors of the economy, posted a 22 percent (y/y) decline in net profit to IDR 3.11 trillion in the first quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, its revenue fell 7 percent (y/y) to IDR 41.89 trillion over the same period. The weak financial performance was particularly attributed to weak earnings of the company's heavy equipment unit United Tractors. Shares of Astra International fell 5.21 percent on Wednesday's trading day (27/04) to a seven-week low.
To assess Indonesia's purchasing power and consumer confidence it is always useful to take a look at car and motorcycle sales because when people are confident about their financial situation and have enough money to spend then they tend to buy cars and motorcycles (motorcycles are particularly popular among Indonesia's huge middle to lower-middle class segment). Meanwhile, cement sales inform about property and infrastructure development. Property development is also closely related to purchasing power and consumer confidence because property development grows when people's demand for property rises.
Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) Indonesian car sales (delivery to dealers) fell around 10 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 84,885 vehicles in the first month of the year from 94,194 units in January 2015. Retail sales, on the other hand, showed a 1 percentage point growth to 82,423 vehicles over the same period.
Whereas the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), expects Indonesia's car sales to rise five percent (y/y) in 2016 on the back of improving economic conditions, US-based consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects to see a 4.3 percent decline in the country's car sales this year as continued rupiah depreciation and persistently low commodity prices undermine Indonesians' purchasing power.
Both car sales and motorcycle sales declined in 2015 in Indonesia. Primary reason for this decline was people's weaker purchasing power amid the slowing economy and persistently low commodity prices. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have fallen to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009. Meanwhile, amid the sluggish global economy (especially China's slowdown) and falling oil prices, Indonesia gains relatively little from its commodity exports.
The performance of Astra International, one of Indonesia's leading diversified conglomerates (but particularly known for being the dominant force in the country's automotive industry), is expected to improve next year on the arrival of new car models, estimated accelerated economic growth and its rivals' stagnating production capacity expansion. As such, Astra International should be able to increase its market share and feel less need to offer its cars to customers at discounted rates.
Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.
The structure of Indonesia's automotive industry remains weak as it is too dependent on imports of raw materials, making sales prices of cars highly vulnerable to the volatile Indonesian rupiah. The automotive industry has been one of the many local industries that has been plagued by Indonesia's economic slowdown and fragile rupiah (amid looming tighter monetary policy in the USA) as people's purchasing power has weakened. In the first ten months of 2015, Indonesian car sales stood at a total of 853,008 units, down 18 percent from car sales in the same period last year.
In a bid to boost economic activity in Indonesia, the central bank (Bank Indonesia) revised several regulations involving down payments for the purchase of cars and motorcycles as well as the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for first or more home purchases by Indonesian citizens. Yati Kurniati, Director of Bank Indonesia’s Macroprudential Department, said that the central bank implemented the looser monetary policy in the property and automotive sectors in an effort to boost credit growth, hence boosting the whole economy.
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