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Taxpayer compliance in Indonesia has risen after the completion of the tax amnesty program in early 2017 according to Yon Arsal, Director of Tax Revenue and Compliance at the Directorate General of Taxes.
In its "war on tax evasion" Indonesia scored another victory by reaching an agreement ("Bilateral Competent Authority Agreement") with Hong Kong to share data of Indonesian taxpayers who hold accounts in the Asian wealth management hub. Indonesia's Tax Office assumes (or better: knows) there are plenty of wealthy Indonesians who take advantage of the low tax regime in Hong Kong and deliberately do not report these funds to Indonesian authorities.
After the ending of Indonesia's tax amnesty program, property players in Southeast Asia's largest economy remain optimistic that inflows of fresh funds - originating from the tax amnesty program - will give a boost to Indonesian property sector in the second half of 2017. This should then cause some momentum, meaning property developers dare to kick-start new projects. Considering weak demand for property in Indonesia over the past couple of years, many local property developers have been postponing projects.
After decades of the "banking information secrecy" culture in Indonesia, local banks now seem more willing to share clients' financial information to tax authorities (both local and foreign authorities). Earlier, Indonesian banks were reluctant to disclose this information as such transparency could mean banks would lose valuable clients. These "big clients" supply over half of banks' deposits. However, the situation has now changed due to the government's tax amnesty program.
The government of Indonesia is confident that it will collect IDR 1,498.9 trillion (approx. USD $112.7 billion) in tax revenue in 2017, up 16.8 percent from tax revenue realization of IDR 1,283.6 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile, in its latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly, released earlier this week, the World Bank stated that the 2017 State Budget of Indonesia is a more realistic one (compared to tax revenue targets in recent years). However, it emphasized further tax administration and policy reforms are required to meet the new target and to further improve fiscal policy credibility.
The second phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program ended on 31 December 2016 and therefore it is interesting to take a look at the results during this phase. In short, results are mixed. We had already reported that in terms of asset declarations, the initial target of the program was already achieved a couple of weeks ago. However, in terms of asset repatriations (into Indonesia), the program has disappointed so far, and, unless the government will introduce new policies or incentives, will not achieve the target.
Indonesia's Constitutional Court declared the government's tax amnesty program as "constitutional". In July 2016 a group of legal activists had filed for a judicial review of the central government's tax amnesty program on claims that the program would turn money laundering into a legal practice, would protect criminals, would teach Indonesian citizens not to pay taxes, and would generally constitute an unfair program from a social point of view. The court rejected these arguments.
The Indonesian rupiah has been appreciated significantly over the past two days versus the US dollar. By 12:00 noon local Jakarta time on Wednesday (07/12), Indonesia's currency had strengthened 0.29 percent to IDR 13,331 per US dollar (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index). Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) appreciated 0.51 percent to IDR 13,336 per US dollar today. Lets zoom in on this performance.
The first phase of Indonesia's tax amnesty program was a success in terms of tax declarations and state revenue (penalties). Fund repatriations, on the other hand, were disappointing as - apparently - Indonesian tax payers find it not attractive enough to transfer these funds into Indonesian investment instruments or lack confidence in Indonesia's political and financial stability (perhaps still haunted by traumas from the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s). However, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati remains optimistic that repatriations will rise soon now the winner of the US presidential election is known.
Indonesia's tax amnesty program, which was launched in July 2016 and will run until 31 March 2017, can be labeled a success. Up to 16 October 2016, a total of IDR 3,842.9 trillion (approx. USD $296 billion) worth of assets (either at home or abroad) have been declared to Indonesia's tax authorities nearly achieving the government's target of IDR 4,000 trillion. However, asset repatriations (from the so-called tax havens) are not a success, being far from the government's initial projection and therefore Indonesian authorities are now easing regulations.
Latest Columns Tax Amnesty Bill
Bank Central Asia (BCA), the largest lender by market value and assets in Indonesia, is expected to benefit from Indonesia's tax amnesty program and improving economic growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy. CIMB Securities projects a 10 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in loan growth in full-year 2016. However, this growth projection is slightly below BCA's loan growth realization one year earlier when it reached 12 percent (y/y). This slowing growth is attributed to lower demand for working capital credit and investment credit.
Indonesia's tax revenue realization in the first half of 2016 was disappointing. According to the latest data, Southeast Asia's largest economy collected a total of IDR 518.4 trillion (approx. USD $39.6 billion) worth of tax revenue (including customs and excise) in the first six months of 2016, down 3.3 percent (y/y) from tax revenue realization in the same period one year earlier, and only 33.7 percent of total targeted tax revenue (IDR 1,539.2 trillion) set in the revised 2016 State Budget. The disappointing performance is mainly due to weak tax income from the oil and gas sector.
The government of Indonesia is preparing various investment instruments in order to absorb the (potentially large) inflow of capital following the launch of the tax amnesty program earlier this month. Besides government bonds, state-owned enterprises' bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and property investment through private equity schemes (RDPTs), the government is also preparing trustees and zero coupon bonds. Without such investment instruments, bubbles are expected to appear due to the large inflow of funds into Indonesia's financial markets.
Without giving too much insight into the details and regulations, Indonesian President Joko Widodo launched the tax amnesty program on Friday (01/07) during a speech in front of hundreds of businessmen and officials at Indonesia's tax office headquarters in Jakarta. The tax amnesty program - approved by the House of Representatives in late June - is a strategy to boost state tax income by (temporarily) granting amnesty as well as offering attractive incentives to (former) tax evaders. In return, the tax dodgers have to declare and (if wanted) repatriate their offshore assets into Indonesia.
As expected, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell on Friday (01/07) due to profit-taking after an impressive recent (relief) rally that brought the index into bull market territory earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah maintained its momentum, appreciating 0.72 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar on the first day of the new month, the currency's strongest level in three and a half months. Most Asian emerging markets have now repaired their earlier Brexit-induced losses.
Today, Indonesia's House of Representatives passed the Tax Amnesty Bill into law. Indonesian authorities expect this bill to bring home trillions of rupiah (hundreds of million of US dollars) that partly flow into Indonesia's property sector. Total Bangun Persada, one of Indonesia's leading construction companies, is one of the companies that can benefit from these inflows. CIMB Securities expects the company's revenue to grow 6.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 2.52 trillion (approx. USD $189 million) in 2016.
In a plenary session on Tuesday (28/06), Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) passed the controversial Tax Amnesty Bill into law as well as the revised 2016 state budget. The Indonesian government will be relieved to see the Tax Amnesty Bill come into effect on 1 July 2016 (ending in May 2017) as it expects the bill to boost tax revenue this year by IDR 165 trillion (approx. USD $12.4 billion). Through tax incentives and the pardoning of tax crimes, the tax amnesty program makes it attractive for tax evaders to declare their offshore assets and repatriate these into Indonesia.
So far this year, realization of government revenue in Indonesia (up to 8 May 2016) has reached IDR 419.2 trillion (approx. USD $32 billion), roughly 23 percent of the full-year revenue target in 2016 (IDR 1,822.5 trillion). This result is weaker compared to last year when the government collected IDR 476.3 trillion in the period 1 January - 15 May 2015, or 27 percent of the full-year target. Meanwhile, government spending reached IDR 586.8 trillion between 1 January and 8 May 2016, or 28 percent of the full-year target (IDR 2,095.7 trillion), roughly the same as government spending during the same period last year.
If we look back on the month of April, two important matters - related to the economy - occurred in Indonesia this month: (1) in the first week of April, the Indonesian government managed to complete the Revised 2016 State Budget (RAPBN-P 2016), and, one week later, (2) the central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced it will adopt a new benchmark monetary tool per 19 August 2016 - the so-called seven-day reverse repurchase rate - that is to replace the existing BI rate (which fails to influence market liquidity effectively).
More changes to Indonesia's tax system are in the pipeline. Today (11/04), Indonesia's Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said Southeast Asia's largest economy plans to cut the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent this year (from 25 percent currently). According to Brodjonegoro a 20 percent corporate tax rate is more competitive and will attract investment. Indonesia's finance minister expressed this plan in a meeting with the nation's parliamentary commission overseeing taxes (an income tax rate cut requires parliamentary approval).
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