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The high gas price in Indonesia is unattractive and therefore discourages investment realization in Southeast Asia's largest economy, especially investment in the Chemical, Textile and Miscellaneous Industries (CTMI) segment. The main contributors to investment in this segment are the chemical and pharmaceutical industries.
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise Energy Regulation No. 8/2017 on the gross split scheme. It was decided to revise this relatively new regulation after an evaluation was conducted that included input from oil and gas contractors. Deputy Energy Minister Arcandra Tahar announced the revision earlier this week.
It has been many months since Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed Presidential Regulation No. 40/2016 on the Determination of the Natural Gas Price in the second half of 2016. However, most businesses in Indonesia still need to pay a high price for gas. Therefore, businesses are again urging the government to be committed to its gas price policy.
The government of Indonesia decided to allow more imports of gas for the domestic industry, a decision that should put downward pressure on Indonesia's gas price. Many players in Indonesia's manufacturing industry have complained about the high domestic gas prices. This causes high production costs and therefore Indonesian manufacturers lack competitiveness (compared to foreign counterparts), while foreign investors think twice before investing in the nation's manufacturing industry.
Total E&P Indonesia, subsidiary of oil & gas giant Total S.A., expects gas production at the Mahakam block (located offshore in East Kalimantan) to decline about 12.8 percent (y/y) in 2017 to 1,430 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) from an estimated 1,640 mmscfd in 2016. Arividia Noviyanto, Vice President Human Resources, Communication, and General Services at Total E&P, informed that the decline in gas production is partly explained by better-than-expected output at the Mahakam block in 2016.
For a company it is very difficult to start activities in Indonesia's upstream oil and gas sector. As a result, not unoften, activities related to exploration and production are delayed. This is the major reason why Indonesia's oil production has been declining for the past two decades, while Indonesia's gas production today does not differ much from production one decade ago. Why is it difficult for an oil and gas company to get started in Indonesia?
The Indonesian government under the leadership of President Joko Widodo is eager to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the trade deal (signed in October 2015) that involves twelve countries, including the USA and Japan. However, opinions vary about whether it would be a wise decision for Indonesia to join the TPP. Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesian Minister of Industry, is a supporter, claiming that Indonesia can become a more attractive export hub for Japanese manufacturers due to zero export tariffs.
The goverment of Indonesia plans to revise Government Regulation No. 79/2010 scrapping several taxes that have been a burden for those companies that invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry (both the exploration and production phase). The government expects that several new fiscal and non-fiscal incentives will boost investment in this industry starting from 2017. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said it is important for the government to share in the "pain" in order to make oil and gas projects economically viable for investors.
The competitiveness of Indonesia's steel industry remains weak. One of the main issues being the high gas price in Indonesia. High input costs make it difficult for the domestic steel industry to expand as investors prefer to import steel from abroad (mainly from China) for their infrastructure projects in Indonesia. Southeast Asia's largest economy needs about 12.5 million tons of steel per year. However, Indonesia's steel industry can only supply about 30 percent of this demand, the remainder being imported.
London-based BP, one of the world's leading oil and gas companies, submitted its final investment development decision to expand the Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility (the Train III project) in West Papua, Indonesia. According to a statement from BP, this decision will create 10,000 new jobs, boost the local economy in West Papua and will contribute to meet Indonesia's energy needs. Construction is scheduled to start in the fourth quarter of 2016 and is targeted to be completed by 2020.
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Only 50 days since the start of the fiscal year 2014 have passed and the government has already shown that it is not convinced to meet targets of basic macroeconomic assumptions set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). Therefore, the Indonesian government has lowered the outlook for all basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget. On Thursday 19 February 2014, the government formally presented the downward revision of economic targets in the State Budget to the House of Representitative's Budget Agency.
Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).
The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).
The government of Indonesia is busy preparing seven tax incentives to boost investment flows in 2014. Investments currently account for approximately 32 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Only domestic consumption owns a larger stake towards the economy with 55 percent. The regulatory framework related to the seven incentives is expected to be finalized by the end of this year. The incentives consist of five new ones and the relaxation of two older incentives, namely the tax holiday and tax allowance.
This year, Indonesia will have to face declining production numbers in its oil and gas sector. Gas output is assumed to decline by 14.77 percent compared to last year, while oil output will reach similar levels as in 2012, provided that there are no disruptions due to bad weather and leakages (a prerequisite that will be hard to meet).
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