Most Asian stocks declined on Wednesday (28/10) as markets are waiting for results of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting (later today the Fed will release a statement). Although analysts and investors seem confident that the US central bank will delay raising its key Fed Fund Rate (and will not provide a clear signal about the timing of higher rates), markets remain cautious. Moreover, oil prices fell to two-month lows overnight.

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In a new report US-based rating agency Moody's Investors Service says that Indonesian banks are strong enough to cope with ongoing currency volatility and sluggish economic growth. Although sharp rupiah depreciation does imply risks, "Indonesian banks seem manageable", Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Srikanth Vadlamani said, "as over 70 percent of local banks' debt constitutes related-party debt, implying minimal risks to the domestic banking system".

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Most Asian stock indices were in red territory on Tuesday (27/10) ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting (scheduled to start today) and following the sluggish performance of US and European stocks on Monday. Investors seem to engage in profit-taking after global equity markets hit a two-month high on China's interest rates cut, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s plan to add stimulus to boost inflation, and expectation of more stimulus from Japan's central bank as well as a delay in higher US interest rates.

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Most Asian stock indices strengthened on Monday (26/10) as China cut the one-year lending rate by 0.25 percent to 4.35 percent (the sixth interest rate cut within a 12-month period) and cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by 0.50 percent to 17.5 percent. On the one hand this move should boost economic expansion in the world's second-largest economy. On the other hand, however, the move is one the the many signals that the economy of China is weakening further and heading for a 25-year low growth pace in 2015.

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The economic slowdown and looming capital outflows related to higher US interest rates have been the main reasons why it is highly unlikely for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to achieve its revised target of seeing 22 companies conducting an initial public offering (IPO) on the IDX in 2015. So far this year, only 13 companies have listed on the IDX. However, reportedly, there are still about a dozen local companies interested to prepare an IPO in the next two months.

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On 25 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fifth stimulus package, Indonesia's tourism and automotive industries, Bank Indonesia's inflation forecast, a stock & rupiah update, the latest World Bank report, commodity updates, and more.

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In line with other Asian emerging assets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah strengthened on Friday (23/10). The positive performance is mainly on the back of more stimulus measures by key central banks. Yesterday (22/10), Mario Draghi, Head of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the ECB may increase stimulus measures at the December policy meeting to raise inflation and boost the economy of the Eurozone.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) announced on Thursday (22/10) that foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia climbed 18.1 percent (year-on-year) to IDR 92.5 trillion (approx. USD $6.85 billion) in the third quarter of 2015 from the same quarter a year earlier. The Q3-2015 18.1 percentage point growth was almost the same as the 18.1 percent (y/y) increase in FDI posted in the previous quarter. FDI data from the BKPM does not include investment in the country's banking and oil & gas sectors.

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With the exception of Japan, the majority of stock markets in Asia were under pressure on Wednesday (21/10) on concern about China's economic growth as Japan's exports to China fell 3.5 percent year-on-year in September. Today, it was announced that Japan posted a USD $95 billion trade deficit in September, worse than previously estimated, primarily on weakening exports due to slowing economic growth in China. However, Japanese stocks rose on stimulus hopes.

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The Indonesian rupiah is not having a good day as it was down 1.05 percent to IDR 13,659 per US dollar by 10:45 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index) on Tuesday (20/10), weakening the most in a week. In line with most other emerging market currencies in Asia, the rupiah is falling presumably on concern about weak economic growth in China. Yesterday, Chinese authorities announced the world's second-largest economy expanded 6.9 percent (y/y) in Q3-2015. This result is slightly better than estimates but does also constitute a six-year low, hence negatively affected exports of its trading partners.

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Based on Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah exchange rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.44 percent this week. Although Asian currencies have been largely supported by renewed capital inflows as investors are optimistic that central banks across the globe continue to provide stimulus to boost local economies, the rupiah has been under pressure due to various domestic issues. These issues include politics as well as fuel subsidies.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent depreciating trend on Wednesday (28/05). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.46 percent to IDR 11,633 against the US dollar at the end of the trading day. The rupiah's performance is in line with the general trend in Asia where most currencies lost ground to the greenback on today's trading day. As various US economic data indicate a continued recovery of the US economy, the market expects more US monetary tightening.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate further on Monday’s trading day (26/05). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Indonesia had depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 11,595 per US dollar by 1pm local Jakarta time. On Monday morning the US dollar was strengthening against most emerging currencies in Asia. Meanwhile, the central bank's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.63 percent to IDR 11,633 against the US dollar.

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On the last trading day of the week, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) rose 0.06 percent to the level of 4,973.06 points. Trading volume was low as investors are still carefully monitoring political and economic developments in Indonesia. Earlier in the week, political uncertainty increased when the country's second-largest political party (Golkar) decided to join the coalition that supports the Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa pair in the July presidential election.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is heading for its biggest weekly decline since the second week of December 2013. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy had depreciated 0.36 percent to IDR 11,572 per US dollar by 2.30pm local Jakarta time on Friday (23/05). However, year to date, the rupiah is still among the best performing Asian emerging currencies against the greenback (+5.19 percent). What are the reasons that explain the rupiah's weak performance this week?

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Investors' appetite for mining and plantation stocks managed to support the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Thursday's trading day (22/05). After the recent decline of the IHSG, market participants continued to accumulate stocks that are considered cheap. Furthermore, indices on Wall Street on Wednesday were up and impacted positively on Asian indices on Thursday, thereby providing positive market sentiments for the IHSG.

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Although most Asian emerging currencies strengthened on Thursday (22/05) against the US dollar due to the preliminary HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recovering to 49.7 in May 2014 (from 48.1 one month earlier) and the Federal Reserve Minutes indicating that there will be no US interest rate hike soon, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to decline. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 11,531 per US dollar by 5pm local Jakarta time.

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Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) declined shortly after the opening on Wednesday (21/05), during the remainder of the day it went up. This is a trend which we often detect: after a sharp fall we see a rebound on the following day as investors want to take advantage of 'cheap' stocks. However, the rebound was only limited as investors prefer to wait and see for further market sentiments first. The main positive factor today were rising Asian stock indices.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.

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Similar to when the market expects the release of positive companies' corporate earnings reports, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) gained significantly at the start of today's trading day (19/05) as the market waited for the official declarations of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates that will participate in the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. The two pairs that will compete are the Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla pair and the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair.

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