Earlier this week US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 10 percent import tariffs on USD $200 billion worth of Chinese export products by 30 August 2018, thus further escalating the trade war between the USA and China. While earlier US tariffs focused mostly on industrial goods, the new list of proposed import tariffs includes various commodities (metals, energy and agriculture) as well as consumer products. As a result most commodity prices were in red territory on Wednesday (11/07).

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When looking at the trade data that were released by Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS) on Monday (16/04) there is something interesting about Indonesia’s steel exports. Indonesia is a relatively small steel producing nation (and actually imports about half of its domestic steel consumption, mostly from China) but its iron & steel exports to the USA soared over 1,500 percent month-on-month (m/m) from USD $2.13 million in February 2018 to USD $35 million in March 2018. Reason behind this surge may very well be the trade war between China and the USA.

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Despite the selloff on Wall Street overnight where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1.9 percent, the S&P 500 tumbled 2.23 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.74 percent, losses in Asia were less severe on Tuesday morning (03/04) as these losses were kept below 1 percent, overall. The selloff on Wall Street, partially driven by a sell-off of tech industry giants, was the weakest start of the second quarter for US shares since the Great Depression.

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Many Asian stocks are in deep red territory dragged down by a 3.49 percent decline of Japan's Nikkei 225 index in the morning of Friday (23/03). The Nikkei 225 is responding to plunging stocks on Wall Street overnight where the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.9 percent, while both the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.5 percent, each. All three benchmark US indexes suffered their biggest drops since 8 February 2018.

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Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) touched a multi-year high in March 2018. The HBA, which is determined by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on a monthly basis (and which is based on several global and domestic indexes), rose 1.2 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $101.86 per metric ton in March 2018, its highest position since May 2012.

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The weakening growth trend of the Chinese economy may not have ended yet. Despite the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rebounding to 6.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, its economy is expected to cool in 2018 as a government-led crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution drags on overall activity in the world's second-largest economy. This is a problem for Indonesia as well because China is Indonesia's biggest trading partner.

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Coal demand remains high, particularly due to robust demand from China, the world's largest coal importer. This brings the projection for the full-year 2018 coal price to the range of USD $98.50 - $107.00 per metric ton. So far this year the coal price (ICE NewCastle Coal January 2018) surged around 4 percent, while in full-year 2017 the price had surged 57.09 percent.

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Coal imports into China are expected to recover in the last two months of the year and therefore various analysts say the coal price is able to touch beyond USD $97 per ton before the year-end. In October coal imports into China - the world's largest coal importer - had fallen by a whopping 24 percent (m/m) to 21.3 million tons due to the availability of plenty domestic coal supplies.

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The value of Indonesia's coal exports to China during January-August 2017 reached USD $1.68 billion, up 63 percent compared to the export value of the commodity in the same period (to China) one year earlier (USD $1.03 billion) according to the Trade Attaché of the Indonesian Embassy in Beijing.

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The economy of China grew 6.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2017. An improving Chinese economy is important for the Indonesian economy as China is the biggest trading partner of Indonesia. Slightly over 10 percent of total Indonesian exports are shipped to China, the world's second-largest economy.

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After continuously reaching new record-high levels last week, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to give up some of its gain and closed 1.04 percent lower. Declining Asian stock markets (excluding Japan's main index) and fears that the IHSG had already reached a (too) high level impacted on today's result. Market participants, who recently confirmed good corporate annual results of many companies by buying, now engaged in profit taking.

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Indonesian companies engaged in the production of a variety of agricultural products, such as palm oil, experienced a rather poor year in 2012 regarding net profit. Global economic turmoil has reduced the world's consumption of palm oil in both the developed markets and developing markets. In particular decreased demand from China, the world’s biggest buyer after India, made a negative impact on the balance sheets of Indonesian companies.

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On Tuesday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was not able to maintain its record breaking upward movement. China's possible decision to limit credit growth in the property sector and the election in Italy contributed significantly to the decline of the IHSG. Moreover, it was influenced by poor openings of European stock markets. Investors thus decided to engage in profit taking, while waiting for further global developments.

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After rallying for three days to try to end on a new resistance level, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to retreat. As we suspected, the index weakened after its record high. Moreover, American and European indices were weak on Thursday, thus influencing the performance of the IHSG on Friday. Lastly, a number of Asian companies reported weak corporate reports that subsequently impacted on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG.

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