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On Friday 05 February 2021 Indonesia Investments released its January 2021 report. The report zooms in on key economic, political, and social developments in Indonesia in January 2021. Special attention is given to Indonesia's COVID-19 immunization program (do we expect to see setbacks?), household consumption amid the COVID-19 restrictions, the Sriwijaya Air crash, and Indonesian demographics.
On 4 December 2020 Indonesia Investments released its November 2020 report. This report zooms in the US presidential election, and specifically the impact it may have on Indonesia-US relations. Other important topics that are analyzed in the report include the extension of Indonesia's status as a beneficiary country in the US GSP facility, the signing of the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Indonesia's Q3-2020 economic growth.
On Thursday 5 November 2020 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 3.49 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2020. This pace of economic contraction in Q3-2020 was slightly more severe than we had predicted. Indonesia Investments had its outlook for Indonesia’s Q3-2020 economic growth at the range of -3.0 to -2.5 percent (y/y).
As expected, the Indonesian economy entered a recession in the third quarter of 2020. On Thursday (05.11.2020), Indonesia's Statistical Agency (BPS) announced that Q3-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) growth contracted by 3.49 percent year-on-year (y/y), which makes it the second consecutive quarter of negative growth.
Multinational management consultancy McKinsey & Company predicts that - by adopting digital technology - the micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) of Indonesia can contribute up to USD $140 billion to Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) by the year 2030.
It took a while – in fact a couple of months – but the Indonesian government has now finally become realistic about its forecast for economic growth in (the remainder of) 2020. Obviously, it had no other option after the country’s Q2-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data had been released in August. These data showed a 5.32 percent year-on-year (y/y) contraction for Southeast Asia’s largest economy in Q2-2020.
On Monday (05/10/2020) Indonesia Investments released the September 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'Infrastructure in Focus', we focus on infrastructure development in Indonesia. For example we discuss how the lack of infrastructure development undermines economic and social development.
August is typically a special month for Indonesia because on the 17th of August the nation commemorates its Independence Day. Unfortunately, however, celebrations had to be quite sober this year as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is still spreading across the country.
On Wednesday (02/09/2020) Indonesia Investments released the August 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'In Search of a Vaccine', we discuss the efforts that are being made in Indonesia to deliver a safe and reliable vaccine for the COVID-19 virus and provide an overview of Indonesia's pharmaceutical industry.
On Wednesday (05/08/2020) Indonesia Investments released the July 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'A Modest Rebound', we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Indonesian economy, Indonesia's automotive industry, and a range of other topics.
Latest Columns GDP
The Standard Chartered Bank expects Indonesia's economy to expand 5.8 percent in 2014, followed by a 6 percentage growth in 2015 as an improving global economy has a positive effect on emerging economies, including Indonesia. The world economy is estimated to grow between 3.2 and 3.5 percent this year and expected to accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2015. David Mann, the regional Head of Research at the Standard Chartered Bank in Asia, said that Indonesia's economic performance in 2013 was negatively influenced by external factors.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the December 2013 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:
Over a decade ago, economist Jim O'Neill became famous for the introduction of the term BRIC (indicating the promising economic perspectives of Brazil, Russia, India and China). Now the BRICs have lost some of its significance, he has turned to a new acronym: MINT. These MINT countries - consisting of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - share a number of features that make them potential giant economies in the future: promising demographic structure, strategic geographical location, and commodity-rich soil.
On Thursday 12 December 2013, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) remains unchanged at the level of 7.50 percent in December 2013. This announcement was a bit surprizing as about 80 percent of analysts expected Bank Indonesia to raise the BI rate in order to support the depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. Starting the year at IDR 9,670 per US dollar, the rupiah has fallen around 25 percent to IDR 12,081 per US dollar.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.
In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.
Rudi Wahyono, Executive Director of the Indonesian Center for Information and Development Studies (Cides), believes that Indonesia's economic expansion in 2014 will be divided in two stages: before and after the legislative and presidential elections. Before the 2014 elections, Wahyono expects that economic growth will be slightly lower at 5.7 percent compared to the period after the elections when growth is expected to hit 6 percent. Growth in the first half of 2014 will be less strong as investors are waiting for the election results.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the November 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:
Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.
With having more than 10,000 islands, Indonesia offers an unique natural scenery. The country contains all sorts of attractive options for tourism, including seas, beaches, mountains and much more. Not surprisingly, tourist arrivals in Indonesia continue to grow. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released in early November 2013, the number of foreign tourist arrivals between January and September 2013 reached 6.41 million, an increase of 8.8 percent from the same period last year.
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