While most Asian stock indices were in the red zone on Friday (02/12), Indonesian stocks bucked the trend. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.91 percent to 5,245.96 points, while the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,512 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). While global investors were cautious ahead of the new US payroll data (to be released later on Friday), domestic investors poured money into Indonesian stocks. What explains this performance today?

Read more ›

Indonesia's manufacturing sector continued to contract in November 2016 (the second straight month of contraction), albeit at a slower pace. Indonesia's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to a reading of 49.7 points last month from 48.7 points in October 2016 (a reading above 50.0 signals expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). Contraction in November was largely blamed on subdued demand and floods in parts of Indonesia.

Read more ›

Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are under pressure on Thursday (24/11). Amid rising expectation of a Fed Funds Rate hike before the year-end, the US dollar rose to a 13 year-high implying all emerging market currencies are sliding. The Indonesian rupiah, one of the more vulnerable emerging market currencies, had depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,542 per US dollar by 10:20 am local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 0.85 percent to 5,167.87 points by the same time.

Read more ›

There is plenty of news that is impacting on Asia's financial markets this morning: a big earthquake (as well as tsunami alert) occurred in Japan's Fukushima, the crude oil price surged to a three-week high, US stocks touched record high levels overnight, while Indonesian authorities officially banned another "anti-Ahok protest" rally. Most Asian stocks are rising on Tuesday morning (22/11) although Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index started in the red. However, the index quickly entered green territory some time later. Meanwhile, the rupiah remains under pressure. Lets take a closer look.

Read more ›

Indonesian stocks continued to decline on Tuesday (15/11), for the third consecutive day. After a promising start - Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rose about 1 percent in today's first trading session - the index finished the day down 0.73 percent to 5,078.50 points. Key matters that cause this selloff are the US dollar approaching a 14-year high as well as expectation of rising inflation in the USA now Donald Trump has been elected next US president. This cocktail gives rise to capital outflows from emerging markets to the USA.

Read more ›

Donald Trump becoming US president causes investors to re-evaluate emerging market assets, and Indonesia is among the biggest victims. Trump is eager to make the USA "great again", partly by using the protectionist approach. Considering Trump may be supported by the Republican-controlled US Congress, investors see a real chance for realization of Trump's plans (which include infrastructure development, tax cuts, as well as the exiting of free trade and environment deals). This has a big impact on emerging markets.

Read more ›

Emerging markets in Asia, including Indonesia, are plagued by sharply depreciating currencies on Friday morning (11/11). Demand for the US dollar is high on the "Trump effect". With a Republican-controlled US Congress and pragmatic businessman Donald Trump in the White House, markets have become positive about US economic growth in the years ahead. Meanwhile, it feeds the likelihood of faster and more frequent Fed Funds rate hikes during Trump's administration. The Indonesian rupiah was down 5.53 percent to IDR 13,865 per US dollar by 09:18 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

Read more ›

Not only were we surprised by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, but also by markets' positive reaction to Trump's win on Tuesday. It shows that most analysts' opinions and opinion polls fail to reflect reality accurately (similar to the Brexit case earlier this year). Today (10/11) the turnaround continued in Asia, extending the performance of European and US stocks overnight. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index opened 0.79 percent higher on Thursday morning (10/11), while the rupiah has not really moved yet.

Read more ›

Donald Trump will soon become the 45th president of the United States, the world's largest economy. In the election on Tuesday (08/11) he defeated market favorite Hillary Clinton, being the first to obtain more than 270 (state-by-state) electoral votes. The world was stunned and therefore heavy movements occurred in global financial markets (that previously had priced in a Clinton win). Reportedly, Clinton has already conceded to Trump through a telephone call.

Read more ›

Today - Tuesday 8 November 2016 - is an important day for the United States, and perhaps even more important for the rest of the world. Around 140 million American voters are expected to show up to vote for the 45th president in today's US presidential election. The US presidential race, a tough battle between Hillary Clinton (Democrats) and Donald Trump (Republicans), has a major impact on financial markets across the globe. In this column we discuss and follow the latest developments regarding the US presidential election on Indonesian stocks and rupiah.

Read more ›

After a promising start of the day, the rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks lost all of their earlier gains ahead of closing on Monday day (19/05). Around 10:00 local Jakarta time, the rupiah rate appreciated more than 0.60 percent to IDR 11,346 per US dollar on speculation that Jusuf Kalla would be nominated as Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's running mate in the presidential election (9 July 2014), backed by a coalition consisting of the PDI-P, NasDem, PKB and Hanura. After the official declaration, however, the currency lost all of its earlier gains.

Read more ›

The week ended well for both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 11,413 per US dollar at the end of Friday's trading day (16/05). Meanwhile, the IHSG surged 0.80 percent to finish just above the psychological level of 5,000 points. The good performance was supported by investors' positive response towards the latest political developments in Indonesia.

Read more ›

The government of Indonesia will submit a new draft proposal for the 2014 Revised State Budget (APBN-P 2014) on 20 May 2014. Of the seven basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), three assumptions are proposed to be revised. These involve general economic growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, and crude oil lifting. The government felt that the assumptions need a revision as results in the first quarter of 2014 have not been up to expectation.

Read more ›

The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG - rose 0.17 percent to 4,921.39 points on Tuesday (13/05), impacted by investors' reaction to positive earnings reports of Indonesian coal miners in the first quarter of 2014. Today, foreign investors recorded net buying of IDR 64 billion (USD $5.6 million) and accounted for 31 percent of trading activity. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014 and wait for more clarity about the (vice) presidential candidates that will compete.

Read more ›

ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the April 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

Read more ›

While most emerging Asian currencies fell, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 11,523 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (12/05). The depreciating Chinese yuan, after its central bank set the midrate at its lowest level in eight months, put pressure on other Asian currencies. Today, Indonesia's Finance Ministry sold IDR 10 trillion rupiah (USD $867 million) of bonds, higher than the indicative target of IDR 8 trillion rupiah. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s two-year bonds gained.

Read more ›

The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

Read more ›

Completely opposite to our expectations, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) managed to climb 0.57 percent to 4,862.02 points on Wednesday (07/05). The gain was unexpected as there were no clear factors that could provide positive market sentiments. Moreover, today's Asian stock indices were mostly down. Coincidence or not, tomorrow Bank Indonesia will announce whether its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) - currently set at 7.50 percent - will be changed or maintained.

Read more ›

Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's economic growth in 2015 is targeted in the range of 5.5 to 6.3 percent. Amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible interest rate hikes in the world's largest economy, chances of capital outflows from emerging markets (including Indonesia) are becoming larger. Basri said that these global conditions impact on GDP growth, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, 2015 is a transition year, reflected by tighter economic projections and state spending.

Read more ›

At the end of Friday’s trading day (02/05), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.32 percent to IDR 11,525 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The rupiah performed better than most of its regional emerging peers as inflation and trade data, which were released today by Statistics Indonesia, provided positive market sentiments. Indonesian inflation eased to 7.25 percent (year-on-year) in April 2014, from 7.32 percent a month earlier. Meanwhile, the country posted a trade surplus of USD $673 million in March 2014.

Read more ›