Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline in September 2015. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), a total of 92,478 vehicles were sold in Southeast Asia's largest economy in September, down 9.8 percent from sales in the same month last year. Indonesian car sales have been slowing since the all-time sales peak in 2013 amid the country's easing economic growth pace (triggering weaker purchasing power).

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In its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Monday (05/10), the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in east Asian developing markets through 2017 primarily on China's economic slowdown. Developing East Asia is estimated to grow 6.5 percent in 2015, down from the 6.7 percent estimate in the World Bank April's update. However, the region remains one the world's key growth drivers.

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Indonesia plans to cut taxes for local exporters in a bid to boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while supporting the rupiah, as part of its second policy package. Indonesia’s rupiah has depreciated 18.1 percent since the start of 2015 due to looming higher US interest rates, low commodity prices, and China’s yuan devaluation. The government now plans to cut income tax on interest that exporters earn when depositing their export proceeds in local banks. Currently, income tax on bank interest (from deposit accounts) stands at 20 percent.

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On 27 September 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as Bank Indonesia’s new policy package, GDP growth, geothermal development, a stocks & rupiah update, September inflation, and much more.

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Apart from external factors (China’s weak manufacturing activity and persistent uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates) that plague Indonesian assets today, there are also domestic factors that push Indonesian stocks and the rupiah into the red. These domestic factors include Indonesia’s downgraded economic growth forecasts and the central bank’s downgraded rupiah outlook. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves - used to defend the rupiah - have declined further.

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For the second time, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its 2016 forecast for economic growth in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Due to persistent low commodity prices and weak export figures, the central bank now estimates that Indonesia’s economy will grow in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y) next year, down from its earlier outlook of 5.3 - 5.7 percent and the initial outlook of 5.4 - 5.8 percent.

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On Wednesday afternoon, Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled some details of the new economic policy package, involving major deregulation measures, that had been announced last week by Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution. This package aims - on the medium to long term - to boost Indonesia’s sluggish economy.

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The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) stated in a recently published report that Indonesia has made significant progress in reducing the country’s child mortality rate. According to the report, entitled “Committing to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed (Progress Report 2015)", Indonesia’s mortality rate for children below the age of five years currently stands at 27 deaths per 1,000 births, a significant improvement from the 85 deaths per 1,000 births that was recorded in 1990.

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Despite the hosting of the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2015 (20-30 August 2015), Indonesian car sales continued to shrank in August due to people’s weaker purchasing power amid the country’s economic slowdown. In August a total of 90,077 cars were sold in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, down 6.9 percent from the same month last year, according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo).

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The government of Indonesia is still busy preparing the policy package that was announced last week by Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution. Earlier it was reported that this stimulus package, expected to be finalized this month, involves deregulation and tax holidays designed to boost economic activity in Indonesia as well as to attract foreign currency inflows. The government will also look at how it can provide incentives to accelerate smelter development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

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Forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 and beyond have been revised down by all institutions, including the Indonesian government and central bank as well as international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Initially, the country’s economic growth was expected to reach around 6.5 percent in 2013. However, most institutions have downgraded forecasts for the country’s economic growth to below the 6.0 percent mark.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at a level of 7.25 percent, with rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility held respectively at 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent. Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and further synergise the monetary and macroprudential policy mix in order to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, that rupiah exchange rate stability is maintained according to its fundamentals and the current account deficit is reduced to a sustainable level.

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After a decade of high growth and a swift rebound after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, emerging markets are seeing slowing growth. Their average growth is now 1½ percentage points lower than in 2010 and 2011. This is a widespread phenomenon: growth has been slowing in roughly three out of four emerging markets. This share is remarkably high; in the past, such synchronized and persistent slowdowns typically have only occurred during acute crises.

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Softer than expected economic activity in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India and jitters over the United States (US) quantitative easing (QE) program will weigh on Asia and the Pacific’s growth prospects in the near term, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. “Asia and the Pacific's 2013 growth will come in below earlier projections due to more moderate activity in the region’s two largest economies and effects of QE nervousness,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee.

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Growth rates in Indonesia in 2013 and 2014 will fall below earlier projections, highlighting the need to continue improving the country’s competitiveness in manufactured exports, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in an update of its flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2013. ADB revised down its 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.7% from 6.4% seen in April. For 2014, growth will also be adjusted to 6.0% from the previous estimate of 6.6%.

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After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.

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Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of Indonesia's September inflation rate. Indonesia has been hit by high inflation since the government decided to increase prices of subsidized fuels at the end of June. High inflation limits its people's purchasing power and as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's economic growth, it thus impacts negatively on GDP growth, particularly after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 5.75 to 7.25 percent between June and September.

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The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

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On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).

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