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In March 2022 the US Federal Reserve started to tighten its monetary policy in an aggressive manner to combat high US inflation that –at one point– touched a 40-year high.
Before we give an update on the monetary policy of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), it is worth mentioning that Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo was appointed for another five-year term (2023-2028) as the central bank’s chief.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) after concluding its two-day policy meeting on 18-19 January 2023. Indonesia’s benchmark rate now stands at 5.75 percent. It also raised its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
Last month we stated that Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) might just be at the start of a (prolonged) monetary tightening cycle. After all, higher interest rates is what we see happening across the world; a development that is led by the Federal Reserve (Fed) that has been aggressively raising its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation. This then causes capital outflows from most other parts of the world.
As Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) was very late in terms of tightening its monetary policy amid the latest global tightening cycle – and the US Federal Reserve continued its hawkish stance with another 0.75 percentage point hike in September 2022 – it has some catching up to do.
At its latest monetary policy meeting, held on 18-19 April 2022, Bank Indonesia decided to leave its interest rates unchanged in an effort to facilitate the ongoing economic rebound. The benchmark interest rate (the BI 7-day reverse repo rate) was maintained at 3.50 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 2.75 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively.
A bit later than usual due to the week-long Idul Fitri holiday, our April 2022 report was released on Monday 9 May 2022. In this report Indonesia Investments discusses key economic, political and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of April 2022.
At its latest monetary policy meeting, completed on 18 February 2021, Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repurchase rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50 percent, a historically low level for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were cut by 25 bps to 2.75 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively.
For the second consecutive month the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark interest rate (the BI seven-day reverse repo rate). And, again, the rate was cut by 25 basis points (bps). It means that the key rate is now at the level of 4.50 percent.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its benchmark interest rate untouched for the first time in five months. At the two-day policy meeting, which was concluded on Thursday (21 November 2019), Bank Indonesia kept the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 5.00 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility and lending facility rates at 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively.
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Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.
Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.
Indonesia’s inflation rate in July 2013 was significantly higher than analysts had previously estimated. The country’s July inflation figure accelerated to 3.29 percent. On year-on-year basis, it now stands at 8.61 percent, the highest inflation rate since many years. Particularly food commodity and transportation prices rose steeply. The main reason for Indonesia's high inflation is the reduction in fuel subsidies. In late June, the government increased the prices of subsidized fuels in order to relieve the ballooning budget deficit.
Last week (22-26 July 2013), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) ended 1.39 percent down at 4,658.87. The daily value of transactions on the regular market narrowed to an average of IDR 3 trillion (USD $300 million) from IDR 3.84 trillion in the previous week. Foreigners still recorded net sales amounting to IDR 92.9 billion (USD $9.3 million). Lack of positive sentiments, financial results of companies that were below expectation and the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar resulted in the decline of the index.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) continued its weakening trend this week. The index fell 0.93 percent to 4,674.12 on Thursday (25/07). This downward movement today was in line with most other Asian stock indices. All sectoral indices of the IHSG weakened, except for the miscellaneous industry. Indonesian blue chips, in particular, were under pressure. Unilever Indonesia fell 3.38 percent and Bank Mandiri lost 3.37 percent. Trade was relatively quiet with value of transactions at IDR 4.5 trillion (USD $441.2 million).
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue yesterday's rise as investors, particularly domestic investors, engaged in profit taking. Foreign investors, who were net buyers of Indonesian assets, were not able to guide the IHSG to positive territory. Mixed Asian stock indices, responding to weak Chinese data, did not support Indonesia's index. Moreover, market participants expect that the rupiah will continue its weakening trend and have begun speculating whether the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) will be raised again.
Yesterday's rising indices on Wall Street, high expectations of companies' financial reports and positive statements regarding economic growth in China resulted in a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Indonesia's main stock index, the IHSG, rose 1.88 percent to 4,767.16 on Tuesday (23/07), even though technical indicators seemed to predict a weakening of the index. Also the continued fall of the Indonesian rupiah did not turn investors away from the market. In fact, foreign investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks.
The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is experiencing one of its worst losing streaks in a decade. On Friday (19/07), the currency weakened to IDR 10,070 against the US dollar, which implies a devaluation of 4.14% in 2013 so far. The central bank of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, does all it can to support the currency: the country's lender of last resort supplies dollars to the market triggering the reduction of foreign reserves from USD $105 million at end-May to $98 million at end-June, and raised its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) by 50 bps to 6.50%.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) went up 0.89 percent to 4,720.44 on Thursday (18/07). The index was supported by developments in the United States. On Wednesday (17/07), Ben Bernanke spoke to the US Congress and said that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its bond-buying program in 2013 and may gradually withdraw the quantitative easing program in 2014. But only if economic recovery of the US provides the good context. This message supported the IHSG although foreign investors continued to record a net sale.
Starting from 1 September 2013, the minimum down payment for the purchase of a second house or apartment (bigger than 70 m²) in Indonesia will be raised to 40 percent. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) implements this new rule to avoid a possible credit bubble in Indonesia's property sector. The country's property sector has been booming in recent years, giving rise to many new property projects, soaring profits for property companies (as well as impressive stock performance) and significantly rising property prices.
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