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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2016. Although the figure is higher compared to the revised 4.88 percent (y/y) growth pace that was recorded in the preceding year (hence effectively ending the nation's economic slowdown that occurred in the years 2011-2015), the slow pace of acceleration may disappoint part of the investor and analyst communities.
On 5 February 2017, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political, social and economy-related topics such the Jakarta gubernatorial election, Indonesia's GDP growth, inflation, manufacturing activity, the investment climate, palm oil, coal, and much more.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
UBS Investment Bank is less positive about Indonesia's economic growth in 2017 compared to most other institutions. The global financial services company, with its headquarters in Switzerland, expects to see the Indonesian economy growing by 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017. Edward Teather, Senior Economist for ASEAN and India at UBS, says the year 2017 is a year of adjustment and balancing for Southeast Asia's largest economy, while the role of fiscal support toward GDP growth is also seen declining this year. He added that 2018 will be the year in which Indonesia should see strongly accelerating economic growth.
Eric Sugandi, Chief Economist at SKHA Institute for Global Competitiveness (SIGC), believes household consumption will remain the main engine of economic growth in Indonesia in 2017, followed by the other engines, namely direct investment and government spending. Regarding household consumption, Sugandi says the middle class contributes significantly to economic growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy due to their robust consumption. Traditionally, household consumption accounts for between 55 and 58 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP).
The World Bank released the January 2017 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled "Sustaining Reform Momentum", on Tuesday (17/01). In this report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia’s reforms to fiscal policy and the investment climate are expected to boost the local economy. Therefore, the World Bank maintains its economic growth rate for Indonesia in 2017 at 5.3 percent (y/y). However, it also emphasizes that Indonesia - like the rest of the international community - is also plagued by uncertainty in global economic policy and global financial market volatility.
Rising private sector investment and strengthening commodity prices are the correct ingredients that can trigger accelerated economic growth in several Southeast Asian nations in 2017. In a report entitled "Global Economic Prospects: Weak Investment in Uncertain Times", which was released on Tuesday (10/01), the World Bank set its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth at 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, followed by a 5.5 percent (y/y) growth rate in both 2018 and 2019, up from an estimated growth rate of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016.
Moody's Investors Services, one of the big three credit global rating agencies, expects to see Indonesian companies posting steadily growing corporate earnings in 2017. This projection is supported by Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. After experiencing an economic slowdown in the years 2011-2015, the Indonesian economy is expected to grow 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, improving from an estimated 5.0 percent (y/y) growth in 2016 and a 4.8 percent (y/y) growth realization in 2015.
In order to escape the middle income trap (and become a high income country), the government of Indonesia needs to raise efforts to enhance the development of an inclusive economy by reforming the education and technology sectors as well as by combating social injustice. With a "business as usual" approach the government will not succeed in escaping this trap, says economist Faisal Basri. Indonesian society is currently highly unfair as 1 percent of the population controls 50.3 percent of the nation's total assets.
Credit growth in Indonesia improved in October 2016 after touching a low in the preceding month. In October credit growth in Indonesia was recorded at a pace of 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), reaching IDR 4,246.6 trillion (approx. USD $314.6 billion), accelerating from a growth pace of 6.4 percent (y/y) in September. This development is caused by Bank Indonesia's lower interest rates although the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election may have curtailed demand for credit due to the higher degree of uncertainty about future US political and economic policies.
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It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.
According to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), domestic cement sales have fallen 5.8 percent to 3.3 million tons in August 2013 (from the same month last year). Being an important indicator of economic expansion (as cement sales inform about the development of property and infrastructure projects in the country), these lower cement sales confirm the slowing pace of economic growth in Indonesia. Compared to July 2013, cement sales in Indonesia fell by a massive 32 percent.
In its most recent report regarding Indonesia's economy, the World Bank states that high logistic costs form a serious impediment to the country's economic growth. The report, titled Annual Logistics Report, is compiled by Bandung Institute of Technology’s Research Center for Logistics and Supply Chains, the Indonesian Logistics Association (ALI), the STC Group, Panteia Research Institute, and the World Bank Indonesia Office. The report provides an analysis and overview of the progress made in tackling the problem of logistics in Indonesia.
In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.
Although many global indices were up, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) fell a total of 2.93 percent during last week's trading. One important issue on global indices is the tapering off of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE3). On 17 and 18 September, the next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled, which is expected to discuss the future of QE3. Notably, as the meeting comes closer, most global indices in fact rise. Thus, market players seem to have become less concerned about an end to QE3.
In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.
According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.
The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).
Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.
Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.
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